Offense is broken

#127
#127
Visidog said:
significantly, yes, but not evenly. If you exclude just FCS opponents for everyone, UT drops from 8th to 15th in points per game. If you limit to ppg against FBS teams with winning records, UT is 75th.
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It's still a very flawed way of looking at it. FBS teams with winning records are far from an equivalent group. For instance, and assuming "winning records" doesn't include .500 teams, Notre Dame faced 6 FBS teams with winning records. Those teams were N. Illinois, Miami(OH), Louisville, Georgia Tech, Navy and Army. Tennessee faced three FBS teams with winning records. Those were Florida, Alabama, and Georgia. Comparing offensive stats against those two groups of teams tells you absolutely nothing about who had the better offense.
 
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#128
#128
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
We are bottom half of the SEC and bottom half of the playoff teams in offensive output against P4 teams. But we did things like call timeout late against UTEP and did an onside kick against Kent State and whatnot, so those overall stats look half decent with no context.
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Stay miserable believe what you want.
 
#129
#129
StickMan said:
Why should we take away Sampson? Was he an ineligible player or something? You see, you keep adjusting the variables to try to make a point. Okay, the offensive production was very frustrating at times, but it was not due to a broken system. It was mostly a matter of crucial mistakes at crucial times that killed drives. And I felt like Nico took a while to shake the tentativeness that plagued things through the middle of the season. To me, it was evident that he really came on late and the offense is starting to click.
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No doubt, now he is trying to play the take away a player game. You could do that with many teams. I will add Lewis,Bishop and Seldon are going to be pretty good. Can’t wait till next Saturday! GBO
 
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#131
#131
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
If we had probably any other Heupel defense this season, we would have had to have fought to make a bowl. I’m sorry but the offense is mediocre. 25 ppg in SEC play is no better than mediocre. And you can tell it is mediocre because if anyone had predicted us to only score 25 a game in conference play before this season started, you would have called them an idiot.
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Those stats are on an upward trajectory. That matters.
 
#132
#132
deatojl said:
It's still a very flawed way of looking at it. FBS teams with winning records are far from an equivalent group. For instance, and assuming "winning records" doesn't include .500 teams, Notre Dame faced 6 FBS teams with winning records. Those teams were N. Illinois, Miami(OH), Louisville, Georgia Tech, Navy and Army. Tennessee faced three FBS teams with winning records. Those were Florida, Alabama, and Georgia. Comparing offensive stats against those two groups of teams tells you absolutely nothing about who had the better offense.
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Sure, who you played absolutely matters and there is a huge amount of variability in strength of schedules. But there is always less variability in the set “FBS teams with winning records” than there is in “all FBS and FCS opponents.”

Take Ohio State. Among winning FBS teams, it played Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana—three playoff teams. It also played Michigan, Iowa, and maybe Marshall (going by memory here)—three teams that are not nearly as good, though they finished over .500. Instead of using all games, using a metric sorted by opponent quality tells you more about how that kind of team has performed against playoff-caliber opponents.
 
#134
#134
VOLociraptorr said:
We're only top 10 in yards per game and TDs for the seasy


I'm so sick of this narrative. I think everyone locally and nationally expects the 2022 offense. Therefore, they assume we are 'bad' this year on offense. It's not statistically true at all. We're top 10. Ohio State is #38 in total offense for those wondering, and they beat down plenty of cupcakes too.
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Agree with your main point, but will point out that scoring offense is much more meaningful, and we are 8th, which is pretty good. The fact that we are top 10 in scoring offense and defense is really great. Not many teams are, season to season.
 
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#135
#135
Visidog said:
Sure, who you played absolutely matters and there is a huge amount of variability in strength of schedules. But there is always less variability in the set “FBS teams with winning records” than there is in “all FBS and FCS opponents.”

Take Ohio State. Among winning FBS teams, it played Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana—three playoff teams. It also played Michigan, Iowa, and maybe Marshall (going by memory here)—three teams that are not nearly as good, though they finished over .500. Instead of using all games, using a metric sorted by opponent quality tells you more about how that kind of team has performed against playoff-caliber opponents.
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That’s why I pulled stats for all 12 playoff teams against bowl eligible P4 teams. It still doesn’t paint a precise picture but at least it isn’t giving equal weight to MAC or AAC teams with winning records and takes out the truly bad P4 teams.it also only includes the playoff teams which, at this point, is all that really matters anyway. could our offense be more explosive and consistent? Absolutely. However, against the decent to good major conference teams, we stack up relatively well and have outperformed some other playoff teams who don’t face the seemingly constant scrutiny that we do, particularly from our own fans.
 
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#138
#138
Power_Sweep_Vol said:
why is there NEVER any deception in the offense? Little to no misdirection, never a trick play...just nothing that says heupel and his staff are clever and imaginative. You probably see 5-6 KC Chiefs plays EVERY WEEK that speak to their imaginative play calling. And yet, there is the bottom line to look at on the alternative side, right? We're in the playoffs, 10-2...But some changes are going to have to be made if we are going to maximize our potential, because who cares if we score 70 against Kent St?
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KC wins almost every game with a FG
 
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#140
#140
Power_Sweep_Vol said:
why is there NEVER any deception in the offense? Little to no misdirection, never a trick play...just nothing that says heupel and his staff are clever and imaginative. You probably see 5-6 KC Chiefs plays EVERY WEEK that speak to their imaginative play calling. And yet, there is the bottom line to look at on the alternative side, right? We're in the playoffs, 10-2...But some changes are going to have to be made if we are going to maximize our potential, because who cares if we score 70 against Kent St?
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Think about what you said. We don’t run truck plays. No misdirection. Yet we are 10-2, in the college football playoffs and still had a really good offense. Who cares what we score against anyone as long as we win? Let’s say we only scored 14 against UGA but we beat them. What would matter the most, what we scored or that we won?

What changes need to be made?
 
#141
#141
barney said:
The offense has been improving throughout the season. Putting 36 on vandy and getting 550 yards was a nice way to finish. Hopefully we come out of this break red hot on that side of the ball. Nico is flashing big time and other teams should be scared. Other than Dillon Gabriel I think he is the best QB in this field.
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Both Huepel recruits.
 
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#143
#143
Honestly I think what we are missing is a big fast guy who can work out of the slot position. We thought we had it in Thornton, but he is better outside.

Squirrel is fast but not really tall enough to work against some of these safeties and nickels. In this offense you gain space in the middle of the field but you lose space outside the numbers, which makes it harder on some of those deep go routes. I almost want to see them give Thornton, Brazzel or Bru some reps at slot just to see what would happen. Hyatt thrived at that spot.
 
#144
#144
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
If we had probably any other Heupel defense this season, we would have had to have fought to make a bowl. I’m sorry but the offense is mediocre. 25 ppg in SEC play is no better than mediocre. And you can tell it is mediocre because if anyone had predicted us to only score 25 a game in conference play before this season started, you would have called them an idiot.
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So pick and choose and move things around to fit your agenda. "If we had probably any other Heupel defense this season..." Well guess what--we got a great defense this year so quit trying to mix and match. I could say "if we had the 2022 offense this year, we would have been undefeated""

Every team is different, and this one won 10 games. This year's team has a stonger D that O so it's a different team
 
#145
#145
BigOrangeTrain said:
Think about what you said. We don’t run truck plays. No misdirection. Yet we are 10-2, in the college football playoffs and still had a really good offense. Who cares what we score against anyone as long as we win? Let’s say we only scored 14 against UGA but we beat them. What would matter the most, what we scored or that we won?

What changes need to be made?
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we would be 7-5, 8-4 without a dominant defense. I acknowledged the bottom line aspect that you mentioned in your post.
 
#146
#146
Negative ppl can find something to adjust their fragile Psyche to handle the unknown. I go with the offense is trending up as is Nico going into the playoffs. I go with what Heupel says every game takes on its own personality. The one thing we know we are not playing at home. This game can take on like @ UGA we jump off sides & 1st & 15 multiple times throughout the game making it hard for a Heupel's O to play behind the sticks or we complete a 30 yard pass and get a rare called penalty for unprotected player. Making it 3rd & 25. or
It could go like @ LSU kickoff they fumble & Will Brooks recovers and we score first minute of game (their stunned) go on to trounce SEC west Champion LSU @ their place.
We will probably see ACC or B-12 refs so buckle up going to be a bumpy ride.
Just think🤔 if these negative ppl were OSU fans and just got beat by a double digit underdog at their place 🤔 what if the Vols lost at home to a double digit underdog last game of year, going into the playoffso_O
Perspective anyone.
 
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#150
#150
EZE said:
Since you obviously have analyzed the roster and other pertinent info, can you expound on this “full potential?”

Is it based on fact and actual coaching experience? Or just sticking your wet finger into the wind and making an emotional guess?
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Man, this type of unnecessary insulting “tough guy” response is just silly. This is a fan site. We’re all fans of the same team here. Disagree if you want. It’s really not that important. But I think it’s fairly easy to see that we commit too many penalties and have had a significant number of drops, overthrows, slow starts, and turnovers.

But, hey, I defer to your in-depth mathematical analysis.
 
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