Official 2012 DNC thread

#51
#51
PKT_VOL said:
It will most likely be canceled out after the DNC if things as planned.
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I wonder if there's really a significant bump to even be had anymore with political conventions. It seems to me that the 24 hr news cycle has taken the punch out of the conventions.
 
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#53
#53
GAVol said:
I wonder if there's really a significant bump to even be had anymore with political conventions. It seems to me that the 24 hr news cycle has taken the punch out of the conventions.
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Valid point. There was polling which said that the recent GOP was the most ineffective convention ever (since they polled this sort of thing, couple decades). I wonder if the DNC will be the same. If so, I think you have your answer.
 
#55
#55
MG1968 said:
what are they planning? Identity politics, class warfare, and race baiting?

it will probably work, but not to the degree they expect it will
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What was the GOP planing to do? Identity politics, factual misrepresentations, promising the sky, and race baiting?

It will work a little, but not to the degree they expected it would.
 
#56
#56
PKT_VOL said:
What was the GOP planing to do? Identity politics, factual misrepresentations, promising the sky, and race baiting?

It will work a little, but not to the degree they expected it would.
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what factual misrepresentations and what race baiting?
 
#62
#62
PKT_VOL said:
Valid point. There was polling which said that the recent GOP was the most ineffective convention ever (since they polled this sort of thing, couple decades). I wonder if the DNC will be the same. If so, I think you have your answer.
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I cannot recall any convention Dem or GOP that received basically no bounce in the polls before this one.

I thought the GOP put on a good convention and thought they would get a 3-5% bounce , as of this afternoon they have a 1.3 bump.

I think the media hurt their bounce with the Clint and his chair coverage and the questioning of Ryans truthfulness in his speech.
 
#63
#63
Gramps said:
I cannot recall any convention Dem or GOP that received basically no bounce in the polls before this one.

I thought the GOP put on a good convention and thought they would get a 3-5% bounce , as of this afternoon they have a 1.3 bump.

I think the media hurt their bounce with the Clint and his chair coverage and the questioning of Ryans truthfulness in his speech.
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the article VNSF posted in the RNC thread sheds some light on this both in terms of how typical this is and some numbers behind the polls that show more impact.

that post and polls out today show:

- likability up considerably for Romney
- leadership ratings up for Romney
- foreign policy ratings up for Romney
- over 1/2 voters believe Obama doesn't deserve a second term
- reduction in the gender gap.

With overall tied and about 5-8 percent undecided I think all Romney needs to do is show it's not a big risk to try something besides Obama. Obama can't get past the upper 40s - undecideds tend to break towards the challenger. The recent polls both in direction and content are encouraging for Romney.
 
#64
#64
volinbham said:
the article VNSF posted in the RNC thread sheds some light on this both in terms of how typical this is and some numbers behind the polls that show more impact.

that post and polls out today show:

- likability up considerably for Romney
- leadership ratings up for Romney
- foreign policy ratings up for Romney
- over 1/2 voters believe Obama doesn't deserve a second term
- reduction in the gender gap.

With overall tied and about 5-8 percent undecided I think all Romney needs to do is show it's not a big risk to try something besides Obama. Obama can't get past the upper 40s - undecideds tend to break towards the challenger. The recent polls both in direction and content are encouraging for Romney.
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I saw his post in the other thread.

Romney had closed the gap a little in the national polls but the ones that count are the state polls. Obama is holding a lead in 10 of the 12 battleground states.
The Intrade number is telling imo.
it has moved more in Obamas favor.

The debates are going to be huge this cycle.

I would not be comfortable putting money on either one to win at this point. All indications show if the election were today Obamas would win.
 
#65
#65
I agree it's a toss-up but Romney has been closing and Obama can't crack 50% - Even in Pennsylvania where he has the biggest lead (battleground states) he's at 49%. In most where he's leading he's at 47%. Given he's the known quantity I see Romney has more up side.

Will be interesting. I think the inside numbers on Romney likability and suitability are the bigger story of the RNC than the overall poll numbers.
 
#67
#67
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gLa9Te8Blw[/youtube]
 
#68
#68
lawgator1 said:
A friend of mine posted earlier today on facebook that its like Hitler in terms of using his name for the convention backdrop or theme. Some kind of demagoguery.

The claim you guys are making, besides being flat out retarded, rings rather hollow ....


RNC-Convention.jpg



images



images
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I agree. They all do it.
 
#69
#69
New Nobama historical fact, gas prices are lower now than when Nobama took office. Just heard it at the DNC. Thank goodness I ain't too gud at that higher math cuz I cud swear that $1.70 was less than $3.70, but maybe it ain't me bein one o them low iq conservutives.

Historical Gas Price Charts - GasBuddy.com
 
#70
#70
volinbham said:
Agree that these are 3 interesting stories to follow:


3 Big Stories At the DNC Convention - YouTube
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That is 3 good stories to follow.

The first one Team Obama is going to point areas where the numbers do show the economy is improving. It will point out that when they took office we were losing 700,000 jobs per month, now we have 29 straight months of job growth. Not good enough but things are improving. They will also state they saved the auto industry and GM is the #1 manufacturer in the world now. Obamas authorized the raid to kill Bin Laden.

Saw that this morning on Morning Joe.

Question 2. No way the main stream media fact checks the dems as much as they did the GOP. There is enough right leaning news outlets that will fact check it to death.
I this fact checking will be a tossup but with different parties doing the checking.

3. The 2nd term... They will promise to protect the middle class. Put blame for their failures on congress and urge voters to elect more dems to congress.

They will not talk about the 16 trillion debt. They will not talk about fast and furious.
They will do a lot of talk about killing Osama but they'll not talk about all the lose of life in Afghanistan.

They are also adding gay marriage to the platform. I think that will hurt in more battleground states than it will help.
 
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#74
#74
I'm tuned in. Why? Because Top Gear isn't on BBC America right now and I'm too lazy to change the channel.

Meh.

Honestly, the one thing I'd like to hear from President Obama later on in this thing is for him to talk about what he's done (and yes, there are things that he can tout) and not mention George W. Bush in his speech. Even if what he says about Bush is true, it will not sound very good to be blaming someone who last held the office in 2009 for the problems than people face in 2012.
 
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