Official Bubble Watch Thread

#827
#827
golfballs said:
I 100% consider it to be the tournament. I know that's been a hot topic before...
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Yes. I don't want to bring back up that argument again.

I would be thrilled with the play in game for this team. In fact I would love to see us get Cal in that play in game.
 
#828
#828
VolGee4 said:
Based on how I understand the formula, I don't understand how that happens. Losing home games is bad regardless, but Mizzou and Bama are both at home. The formula doesn't consider who you beat or lose to but merely your record and your opponents' records. Would like to know how that happens.
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Not sure as when you beat a quality team your RPI jumps a hell of a lot more than when you beat a crap team? If we beat Gonzaga at home tomorrow our RPI jumps much higher than if we beat Missouri at home tomorrow, no?
 
#830
#830
bleedingTNorange said:
Thursday's Games to Watch:

Bubble games:
Purdue vs. Indiana
Washington State vs. Utah
Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Old Dominion vs. MTSU
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Purdue wins
Washington State loses
Missouri State loses
Old Dominion loses

SOS games:
High Point vs. Presbyterian
Citadel vs. ETSU
Chattanooga vs. Furman
Lipscomb vs. Florida Gulf Coast
Tennessee State vs. Tennessee Tech
North Carolina vs. Duke
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Oregon vs. UCLA
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount
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Presbyterian loses
ETSU wins
Chattanooga loses
Lipscomb wins
TTU loses
North Carolina loses
Wisconsin wins
 
#831
#831
Updated list:

Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
California
TCU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Marquette
Michigan State
Iowa State
Tennessee
Indiana
Rhode Island
Wichita State
Illinois State
---------------------------
Seton Hall
Michigan
Clemson
Arkansas
Utah
Nevada
Boise State
Houston
Wake Forest
Ohio State
Alabama
Illinois
Memphis
Auburn
Vanderbilt
 
#838
#838
bleedingTNorange said:
Updated list:

Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
California
TCU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Marquette
Michigan State
Iowa State
Tennessee
Indiana
Rhode Island
Wichita State
Illinois State
---------------------------
Seton Hall
Michigan
Clemson
Arkansas
Utah
Nevada
Boise State
Houston
Wake Forest
Ohio State
Alabama
Illinois
Memphis
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Click to expand...

Projected finishes per rpiforecast.com, excluding mid majors:

Northwestern: 22-9(11-7) RPI:45 SOS:66
Oklahoma State: 18-12(8-10) RPI:39 SOS:20
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:58 SOS:58
California: 21-9(12-6) RPI:37 SOS:48
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:46 SOS:28
Miami: 19-11(9-9) RPI:51 SOS:42
Virginia Tech: 19-11(8-10) RPI:63 SOS:67
Syracuse: 19-12(11-7) RPI:64 SOS:41
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI: 71 SOS:59
Michigan State: 17-14(9-9) RPI:55 SOS:15
Iowa State: 18-12(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:30
Tennessee: 17-13(10-8) RPI:49 SOS:14
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:62 SOS:38
----------------------------------------------------
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:51 SOS:35
Michigan: 19-12(9-9) RPI:61 SOS:39
Clemson: 16-14(6-12) RPI:66 SOS:25
Arkansas 21-10(10-8) RPI:53 SOS:64
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:41 SOS:12
Ohio State: 18-13(8-10) RPI:69 SOS:31
 
#839
#839
bleedingTNorange said:
Projected finishes per rpiforecast.com, excluding mid majors:

Northwestern: 22-9(11-7) RPI:45 SOS:66
Oklahoma State: 18-12(8-10) RPI:39 SOS:20
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:58 SOS:58
California: 21-9(12-6) RPI:37 SOS:48
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:46 SOS:28
Miami: 19-11(9-9) RPI:51 SOS:42
Iowa State: 18-12(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:30
Tennessee: 17-13(10-8) RPI:49 SOS:14
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:51 SOS:35
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:41 SOS:12
Arkansas 21-10(10-8) RPI:53 SOS:64


----------------------------------------------------
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So going off past indications that typically RPI > 60 and you're out, AND also 14+ losses and out...

The above is what the field would look like, below would be teams out...here's the thing though, with that scenario there is still 2 more at large bids that need to be filled. My point being, as of today the bubble is so weak that you're gonna see some teams get in that typically would not, whether that's a 14 loss team or a team with a RPI greater than 60 idk, but as of today something is gonna have to give.

Virginia Tech: 19-11(8-10) RPI:63 SOS:67
Syracuse: 19-12(11-7) RPI:64 SOS:41
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI: 71 SOS:59
Michigan State: 17-14(9-9) RPI:55 SOS:15
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:62 SOS:38
Michigan: 19-12(9-9) RPI:61 SOS:39
Clemson: 16-14(6-12) RPI:66 SOS:25
Ohio State: 18-13(8-10) RPI:69 SOS:31
 
#845
#845
nirwin said:
Well, that's good, because it is in the tournament.
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Yeah it's the opening round with 8 teams playing. The other 60 teams get a first round bye. It's not actually the play in game. It's the first round. 🙄🙄🙄
 
#846
#846
I'm not sure they ever posed much of a threat, but I was happy to see New Mexico State fall last night. Had they finished the regular season with two losses on a 26-game win streak, I think they'd have had a shot to take an at-large bid if they lost in the WAC tournament. I'll feel much better about the bubble if Vermont, another way under-the-radar team riding a monster win streak and decent RPI, loses in the next five games as well.

Definitely hoping that Akron falls to EMU tonight just in case there's any legitimacy to their at-large hopes, but I'm not sure whether I should be hoping that URI knocks off Dayton and puts both teams on the bubble or if a Dayton win all but eliminating URI from an at-large berth would be better for our chances.
 
#847
#847
VolGee4 said:
Based on how I understand the formula, I don't understand how that happens. Losing home games is bad regardless, but Mizzou and Bama are both at home. The formula doesn't consider who you beat or lose to but merely your record and your opponents' records. Would like to know how that happens.
Click to expand...
You're factoring in at least 17 losses for Mizzou and add the skewing for Home vs Road losses.
Also a NC SOS of 256 which gives an idea of the records of teams they've played.
 
Last edited:
#848
#848
bleedingTNorange said:
Not sure as when you beat a quality team your RPI jumps a hell of a lot more than when you beat a crap team? If we beat Gonzaga at home tomorrow our RPI jumps much higher than if we beat Missouri at home tomorrow, no?
Click to expand...

Yes, but that's because they have different records. You have to use two games in the same setting to check that theory. What happens if we beat Missouri at home and lose to Gonzaga as opposed to lose to Missouri and beat Gonzaga? That would be the test.
 
#850
#850
calban said:
You're factoring in at least 17 losses for Mizzou and add the skewing for Home vs Road losses.
Also a NC SOS of 256 which gives an idea of the records of teams they've played.
Click to expand...

I understand. Losing to Missouri on its own is not good. But my theory is that losing to Missouri and beating Bama is about the same as beating Missouri and losing to Bama. Both are at home, and the records of both teams don't change. The RPI doesn't factor in who you beat. Just your record and your opponents' records, which would be the same for Missouri and Bama, regardless of which one you beat.
 
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