Official Bubble Watch Thread

#851
#851
VolGee4 said:
Yes, but that's because they have different records. You have to use two games in the same setting to check that theory. What happens if we beat Missouri at home and lose to Gonzaga as opposed to lose to Missouri and beat Gonzaga? That would be the test.
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So if I'm understanding what you're saying...our current record is 13-10, and our RPI is 39...those would be the exact same right now if instead of beating UK and K State we lost, and instead beat UTC and Arkansas?
 
#852
#852
VolGee4 said:
I understand. Losing to Missouri on its own is not good. But my theory is that losing to Missouri and beating Bama is about the same as beating Missouri and losing to Bama. Both are at home, and the records of both teams don't change. The RPI doesn't factor in who you beat. Just your record and your opponents' records, which would be the same for Missouri and Bama, regardless of which one you beat.
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You answered your own question somewhere above. It's about records. Win/loss percentages.
A loss to a bad win/loss is factored at 1.4 if it's on your home floor. .6 on theirs.
Quite a difference between the win/loss percentage of Mizzou and Bama.
.609/.261
 
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#853
#853
I see tomorrow's game not as a must win but as a huge opportunity, IMO right now our tourney chances are around 50/50, a win tomorrow and I think that number becomes more like 70/30.
 
#860
#860
GREENnTN said:
Why are we not even on Jerry Palm's radar??.. in his Bubble watch we are not in, not on the fence and not on the work to do list


NCAA College Basketball Bubble Watch - CBSSports.com
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He basically said the other day that until we get to 4 games over .500 (not including Chaminade), that he won't even look at Tennessee. Now I do get his point, however I feel it's a dumb one, if Tennessee wins Saturday I would expect them to vault from nowehere on his radar to either in or first four out.
 
#861
#861
Shameless bump for the people who may have missed this late last night. To me this somewhat shows the weakness, at least as of today, of the perceived bubble. In past years a RPI north of 60 and you're not getting in the NCAAT, 14 or more losses and you're also unlikely to get in...that's not going to be the case this year, you're going to have some teams get in with weaker resumes than years past. What makes it difficult though is that this is uncharted waters, so impossible to know what the committee is going to do...are they gonna look more to RPI, towards SOS, towards W/L record or maybe even to advanced analytics such as KenPom? Impossible to know unfortunately...

Below is my seed list as of today...

bleedingTNorange said:
Updated list:

Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
California
TCU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Marquette
Michigan State
Iowa State
Tennessee
Indiana
Rhode Island
Wichita State
Illinois State
---------------------------
Seton Hall
Michigan
Clemson
Arkansas
Utah
Nevada
Boise State
Houston
Wake Forest
Ohio State
Alabama
Illinois
Memphis
Auburn
Vanderbilt
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Projected finishes per rpiforecast.com, excluding mid majors:

Northwestern: 22-9(11-7) RPI:45 SOS:66
Oklahoma State: 18-12(8-10) RPI:39 SOS:20
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:58 SOS:58
California: 21-9(12-6) RPI:37 SOS:48
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:46 SOS:28
Miami: 19-11(9-9) RPI:51 SOS:42
Virginia Tech: 19-11(8-10) RPI:63 SOS:67
Syracuse: 19-12(11-7) RPI:64 SOS:41
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI: 71 SOS:59
Michigan State: 17-14(9-9) RPI:55 SOS:15
Iowa State: 18-12(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:30
Tennessee: 17-13(10-8) RPI:49 SOS:14
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:62 SOS:38
----------------------------------------------------
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:51 SOS:35
Michigan: 19-12(9-9) RPI:61 SOS:39
Clemson: 16-14(6-12) RPI:66 SOS:25
Arkansas 21-10(10-8) RPI:53 SOS:64
Utah: 18-10(11-7) RPI:75 SOS:89
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:41 SOS:12
Ohio State: 18-13(8-10) RPI:69 SOS:31

So going off past indications that typically RPI > 60 and you're out, AND also 14+ losses and out...

Below is what the field would look like, below would be teams out...here's the thing though, with that scenario there is still 2 more at large bids that need to be filled. My point being, as of today the bubble is so weak that you're gonna see some teams get in that typically would not, whether that's a 14 loss team or a team with a RPI greater than 60 idk, but as of today something is gonna have to give.

bleedingTNorange said:
Projected finishes per rpiforecast.com, excluding mid majors:

Northwestern: 22-9(11-7) RPI:45 SOS:66
Oklahoma State: 18-12(8-10) RPI:39 SOS:20
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:58 SOS:58
California: 21-9(12-6) RPI:37 SOS:48
TCU: 18-12(8-10) RPI:46 SOS:28
Miami: 19-11(9-9) RPI:51 SOS:42
Iowa State: 18-12(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:30
Tennessee: 17-13(10-8) RPI:49 SOS:14
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:51 SOS:35
Wake Forest: 17-13(8-10) RPI:41 SOS:12
Arkansas 21-10(10-8) RPI:53 SOS:64


----------------------------------------------------
Virginia Tech: 19-11(8-10) RPI:63 SOS:67
Syracuse: 19-12(11-7) RPI:64 SOS:41
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI: 71 SOS:59
Michigan State: 17-14(9-9) RPI:55 SOS:15
Indiana: 19-12(9-9) RPI:62 SOS:38
Michigan: 19-12(9-9) RPI:61 SOS:39
Clemson: 16-14(6-12) RPI:66 SOS:25
Ohio State: 18-13(8-10) RPI:69 SOS:31
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#863
#863
Siap, but what about the scenario in which we beat SCar, but lose to UK, Mizzou, and LSU? Do those losses screw us bad enough to knock us out?
 
#864
#864
Lunardi has us in, playing Indiana in an opening round/play-in game as a 12 seed as of this morning.
 
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#868
#868
bleedingTNorange said:
If Vols need to go 4-3 to finish season I don't understand this line of thinking
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Because me and many others think that is NIT bound. If we go 18-13, that simply wasn't consistent enough to get us in. That will get us top seed in the NIT AND MAYBE if we're lucky a first round play in game in the NCAAT.

18-13 is simply not a good record. If we won 2 in SECT, I could see our chances going up.
 
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#869
#869
bleedingTNorange said:
Updated list:

Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
California
TCU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Marquette
Michigan State
Iowa State
Tennessee
Indiana
Rhode Island
Wichita State
Illinois State
---------------------------
Seton Hall
Michigan
Clemson
Arkansas
Utah
Nevada
Boise State
Houston
Wake Forest
Ohio State
Alabama
Illinois
Memphis
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Click to expand...

Lunardi's list:
Oklahoma State
Dayton
Northwestern
VCU
Minnesota
Wichita State
Miami
Kansas State
California
Virginia Tech
TCU
Michigan State
Marquette
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Arkansas
Indiana
Tennessee
-----------------------
Clemson
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island
Michigan
Illinois State
Georgetown
Texas Tech
 
#870
#870
Chris4Vols22 said:
Siap, but what about the scenario in which we beat SCar, but lose to UK, Mizzou, and LSU? Do those losses screw us bad enough to knock us out?
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I doubt we lose to Mizzou/LSU or any other bottom tier team. Our team is too well coached to drop games like that honestly. We haven't had a bad loss yet and I can't imagine we'll have one now.
 
#871
#871
iKrager said:
Because me and many others think that is NIT bound. If we go 18-13, that simply wasn't consistent enough to get us in. That will get us top seed in the NIT AND MAYBE if we're lucky a first round play in game in the NCAAT.

18-13 is simply not a good record. If we won 2 in SECT, I could see our chances going up.
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I understand what you're saying, but at some point people have to look at the other teams and say well then who? The committee has to take 68 teams, if you look at the surrounding bubble teams there's gonna be a bunch of 16-14, 17-13, 18-13 type teams...some of them are going to have to make it.
 
#872
#872
It's really pretty simple. It's not how many wins alone that settles it... it's how well they finish compared to the rest on the bubble. Could go 3-4 and still get in if by some fluke all of the teams around TN do worse. Bottom line is that every win inches TN into the NCAAT field and every loss drops TN behind a handful of others. Unfortunately for TN they have two really difficult games remaining and about 3 more will be quite challenging.
 
#873
#873
iKrager said:
I doubt we lose to Mizzou/LSU or any other bottom tier team. Our team is too well coached to drop games like that honestly. We haven't had a bad loss yet and I can't imagine we'll have one now.
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Miss State is a 100+ loss. Most of our rpi competitors in the SEC have one, except Vandy I believe.
 
#875
#875
calban said:
You answered your own question somewhere above. It's about records. Win/loss percentages.
A loss to a bad win/loss is factored at 1.4 if it's on your home floor. .6 on theirs.
Quite a difference between the win/loss percentage of Mizzou and Bama.
.609/.261
Click to expand...

I am not sure you understand what I have been saying. Throw their records out, and I believe a win is given the same weight regardless of who you play. That is, if all games are at home. It doesn't matter who you beat. Therefore, the records for Missouri and Alabama will both be thrown into the overall "pot" of our opponents' records. Standing alone, losing to Missouri at home is terrible. In fact, beating them doesn't really help either. But if you take both Missouri and Alabama at home, and ask which one is better to beat, I don't think it matters much. They are both at home, you split 1-1, and both of their records get used. That's the way I understand the formula.
 
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