Official Bubble Watch Thread

#2,027
#2,027
BruinVol said:
The cut line is just above illinois?


If so I think Rhode is way too low and you know my stance on Syracuse
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I think Rhode Island has a good case, played a hell of an OOC SOS, 19 wins and a nice RPI in a good conference, I definitely see them having a legit case especially in a down year for P5 teams.

Simply put Cuse has a SOS of 50, 17 wins, and a RPI of 77...no way I can put them in with that. Yes they have some nice wins, but have a horrendous OOC SOS and RPI would be all time bad by a wide margin.
 
#2,028
#2,028
bleedingTNorange said:
You can exit out the same door, personally I enjoy keeping track of it and because I was so involved before seeing how it shapes up interest me.

Also, I 100% believe this (nobody else has to), if Tennessee wins their last 2 and the way things are going they are going to find themselves in the discussion again. They'd need to do work in the SECT, but I believe if Tennessee wins out and these other teams continue stumbling things could get interesting.
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They have to win the SEC Tournament.

They are not getting an at-large.

Finishing 7th or 8th and going .500 in a league that is not well respected......it ain't happening.

What people are hanging their hat on is the strength of schedule. And that's nice, but they didn't beat any of those teams. I know they came close, but they didn't get a win. Best OOC win based on RPI is to a Kansas State team that is 6-10 in their league.

And Syracuse is in.
 
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#2,030
#2,030
99gator said:
They have to win the SEC Tournament.

They are not getting an at-large.

Finishing 7th or 8th and going .500 in a league that is not well respected......it ain't happening.

What people are hanging their hat on is the strength of schedule. And that's nice, but they didn't beat any of those teams. I know they came close, but they didn't get a win. Best OOC win based on RPI is to a Kansas State team that is 6-10 in their league.

And Syracuse is in.
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That's simply not true, Vols go 3-1 and are sitting 19-15 with a RPI in the 40's and they've got a much better chance of getting in than being left out.

Vandy loses their last 2, Illinois splits, UGA splits, WF drops their last 2, Syracuse loses to GT...who is in?
 
#2,031
#2,031
bleedingTNorange said:
That's simply not true, Vols go 3-1 and are sitting 19-15 with a RPI in the 40's and they've got a much better chance of getting in than being left out.

Vandy loses their last 2, Illinois splits, UGA splits, WF drops their last 2, Syracuse loses to GT...who is in?
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3-1 doesn't get us to 19 wins
 
#2,034
#2,034
bleedingTNorange said:
That's simply not true, Vols go 3-1 and are sitting 19-15 with a RPI in the 40's and they've got a much better chance of getting in than being left out.

Vandy loses their last 2, Illinois splits, UGA splits, WF drops their last 2, Syracuse loses to GT...who is in?
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You made a post a few posts up that said a 15 loss team ain't getting in.

Based on that statement, Tennessee has to win out including the SEC Tourney
 
#2,037
#2,037
BruinVol said:
He said a 15 loss team is getting in and I agree. I think it's Vandy.
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My bad. The whole reading thing.

I don't want to be misunderstood here.

I think, in a just world, Tennessee gets in. I think a 2 point loss on the road to North Carolina should mean more than a win against a chump squad somewhere.

I like the description Jay Bilas has used. All these bubble teams have proven they can lose. So, who have you beaten?

The win over Kentucky. The games against Oregon, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, while losses, should mean something.

So, I can make a case for Tennessee.

I'm just pretty damn sure the committee won't see it that way.
 
#2,038
#2,038
Bracket Matrix which has 98 brackets, along with expected records per rpiforecast...

Last 9 IN:
Xavier
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Marquette
Syracuse
Providence
California
Illinois State
Kansas State

First 9 OUT:
Vandy 16-15
TCU 16-14
WF 16-14
Rhode Island 20-10
GT 16-14
Illinois 17-13
Houston 21-9
Clemson 16-14
Georgia 17-13


1 or 2 teams from the "IN" group are going to slip up and not make it, whether it's regular season or conference tourney...that's going to leave the same as every year 2-3 spots up for grabs headed into conference tourneys. If the above scenario happens with a bunch of 13/14/15 loss teams entering conference tournaments and Tennessee is sitting at 16-14 as well competing with Georgia and Vandy they are alive IMO.
 
#2,040
#2,040
99gator said:
You made a post a few posts up that said a 15 loss team ain't getting in.

Based on that statement, Tennessee has to win out including the SEC Tourney
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May wanna re-read that post...I said I believe a 15 loss team WILL make the tournament this season. Who that is I'm not sure, could be Vandy, Wake or someone else.
 
#2,044
#2,044
99gator said:
My bad. The whole reading thing.

I don't want to be misunderstood here.

I think, in a just world, Tennessee gets in. I think a 2 point loss on the road to North Carolina should mean more than a win against a chump squad somewhere.

I like the description Jay Bilas has used. All these bubble teams have proven they can lose. So, who have you beaten?

The win over Kentucky. The games against Oregon, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, while losses, should mean something.

So, I can make a case for Tennessee.

I'm just pretty damn sure the committee won't see it that way.
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That's the thing, there's no telling wtf the committee is gonna do because something that's never happened is going to. Whether that's a new record for RPI getting in, or 15 loss teams, or teams not +4 in the win column I'm not sure...this type of year hasn't ever happened so no clue what committee will do.
 
#2,046
#2,046
bleedingTNorange said:
That's the thing, there's no telling wtf the committee is gonna do because something that's never happened is going to. Whether that's a new record for RPI getting in, or 15 loss teams, or teams not +4 in the win column I'm not sure...this type of year hasn't ever happened so no clue what committee will do.
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Just curious since you have looked at this stuff, how are so many majors who are not performing going to get these bids.

What has happened to the mid majors? Are there no quality mid majors out there having a 23-7 season worthy of consideration?
 
#2,047
#2,047
99gator said:
Just curious since you have looked at this stuff, how are so many majors who are not performing going to get these bids.

What has happened to the mid majors? Are there no quality mid majors out there having a 23-7 season worthy of consideration?
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MVC has 2 with Wichita and Illinois State
CUSA has MTSU
A10 has 2 with Dayton and VCU, Rhode Island making a push


After that there just aren't any, UNC-Wilmington could make a case if they won out up to conference championship, but that still wouldn't be a given.

Most years the A10 is getting 4-5 teams, the MWC used to be a 3-4 team league, so that's typically 7-9 bids from those leagues that this year at best will get 4.

The American conference has typically been a 4 team league, they have 2 locks and Houston making a push for a 3rd, so there's another bid too.
 
#2,049
#2,049
bleedingTNorange said:
That's the thing, there's no telling wtf the committee is gonna do because something that's never happened is going to. Whether that's a new record for RPI getting in, or 15 loss teams, or teams not +4 in the win column I'm not sure...this type of year hasn't ever happened so no clue what committee will do.
Click to expand...

Personally, I think they will take a record low RPI, since they are wanting to move away from the metric.
 
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