Official Bubble Watch Thread

#2,053
#2,053
Y'all think I'm crazy for keeping up with this yet the most respected guy who does brackets (Joe Lunardi) has Tennessee as the 5th team out in his update this morning.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi Last 8 IN:
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
USC
California
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Vanderbilt

Lunardi First 8 OUT:
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Rhode Island
Georgia
Tennessee
TCU
Kansas State
Houston
 
#2,055
#2,055
I don't disagree that we still have a very small change of making it; at this point I have little faith we're going to actually win the games needed. The way we've played lately, I think winning at LSU will be a struggle. We're limping to the finish line.
 
#2,058
#2,058
Eh -- Lunardi is notoriously slow in adjusting the bubble. He's still hanging on to Tennessee but makes no mention of Illinois, who has become a legit bubble team. Most others have moved Tennessee off the S-curve entirely, and I'm sure Lunardi will follow suit.

UT isn't making the field with 15 losses. Vandy could, but Vandy has better wins, a better computer profile, and a better conference record. And even then, we're banking on the committee doing something for the first time ever. Don't hold your breath.
 
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#2,059
#2,059
RPIWizard is giving me an RPI in the mid-50s by winning the next two and then two in the SECT.

Compare this UT team to UF last year -- UF finished 19-14 (9-9) with an RPI of 55 and Top 25 wins over West Virginia and St. Joe's.

At some point a certain amount of losses might be too many.
 
#2,060
#2,060
Do you think if we win out to the sect championship game that we could get in as an at large? Or is winning the tournament our only hope?
 
#2,061
#2,061
We might be in the discussion, but those two wins are not going to get us into the tournament. We're going to need to win 2 in the SEC Tourney, and unfortunately, based on what it's looking like based on our seeding we'd have a second round match-up against UK or Florida. Even if the cards were to fall into place that would get us up to a 6 seed we'd most likely play USC which is clearly a bad matchup for us.
 
#2,062
#2,062
rdk4121 said:
Do you think if we win out to the sect championship game that we could get in as an at large? Or is winning the tournament our only hope?
Click to expand...

Making it to the Championship game might do it. But I still wouldn't feel good about making it.
 
#2,064
#2,064
rdk4121 said:
Do you think if we win out to the sect championship game that we could get in as an at large? Or is winning the tournament our only hope?
Click to expand...

To feel comfortable, winning the SECt is the only option. Getting to the finals would put you in the discussion. Getting the the semis means NIT.
 
#2,065
#2,065
GatorsGators said:
RPIWizard is giving me an RPI in the mid-50s by winning the next two and then two in the SECT.

Compare this UT team to UF last year -- UF finished 19-14 (9-9) with an RPI of 55 and Top 25 wins over West Virginia and St. Joe's.

At some point a certain amount of losses might be too many.
Click to expand...
Only scenario I found that would get us back into the 40s was:
Wins over aub, florida, arkansas and losing to KY in the final.
Probably not even feasible with the way the bracket is set up.
3 seed in the NIT is much more probable.
 
#2,066
#2,066
VolsSportsFan said:
I don't disagree that we still have a very small change of making it; at this point I have little faith we're going to actually win the games needed. The way we've played lately, I think winning at LSU will be a struggle. We're limping to the finish line.
Click to expand...

Oh no doubt, I don't think it's very likely unless this team gets back to what was working previously...I also think this team is really missing Bowden.
 
#2,068
#2,068
GatorsGators said:
RPIWizard is giving me an RPI in the mid-50s by winning the next two and then two in the SECT.

Compare this UT team to UF last year -- UF finished 19-14 (9-9) with an RPI of 55 and Top 25 wins over West Virginia and St. Joe's.

At some point a certain amount of losses might be too many.
Click to expand...

And UF was likely one of the very first teams left out, this post basically proves my point. This years bubble is on pace to be worse than last years if it continues, a 15 loss team is likely getting in IMO.
 
#2,069
#2,069
GatorsGators said:
Eh -- Lunardi is notoriously slow in adjusting the bubble. He's still hanging on to Tennessee but makes no mention of Illinois, who has become a legit bubble team. Most others have moved Tennessee off the S-curve entirely, and I'm sure Lunardi will follow suit.

UT isn't making the field with 15 losses. Vandy could, but Vandy has better wins, a better computer profile, and a better conference record. And even then, we're banking on the committee doing something for the first time ever. Don't hold your breath.
Click to expand...

I think Vandy loses their last 2 giving them 15 losses, losing in SECT gives them 16
 
#2,073
#2,073
For us to get a 6 seed in the SECT (assuming we win out):

Vandy and UGA to lose their last 2 and Bama losing to Ole Miss
or
Ole Miss, Vandy, UGA to lose their last 2 plus TAMU winning their last 2 (including to UK) and UF losing at home to Ark

The former is clearly more likely. It would require 2 upsets: Bama losing at home to Ole Miss, and Georgia to lose at home to Auburn. Not highly improbable.
 
#2,074
#2,074
GatorsGators said:
If that happens they're done. I think they split, though.
Click to expand...

Wake Forest, Georgia, Illinois, TCU, Kansas State have 12 losses

Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Indiana and Syracuse have 13 losses

Pitt, Tennessee, Clemson have 14 losses


Between those teams you're probably gonna have 3-4 get in the way things sit right now...maybe someone in the 12 loss group win their next 3, but that doesn't seem too likely. I think a 15 loss team is getting in, I'm not saying that's Tennessee, but I do think someone will.
 
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#2,075
#2,075
bleedingTNorange said:
And UF was likely one of the very first teams left out, this post basically proves my point. This years bubble is on pace to be worse than last years if it continues, a 15 loss team is likely getting in IMO.
Click to expand...

I may track it down, but you told me specifically a few pages ago that this bubble wasn't even as bad as last year's.


Keep moving those goalposts.
 
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