I've looked at the conference tourneys of the bcs conference teams listed. here are my thoughts:
West Virginia - they're in the tournament. but for the hell of it, I think they lose their first game vs. UConn
UConn - see above. DePaul isn't winning a game, let alone 2
Washington - they suck. Oregon St might beat them. And either UCLA/Arizona will. I actually have UCLA beating both Zona and Washington to play in the finals.
BYU - I think they're out unless other bubble teams falter. Getting 3 WCC teams in the dance would be surprising, IMO.
Texas - blame Baylor for losing to Iowa State! If that hadn't happened Texas plays Baylor and loses. But now, they draw Iowa State in their first game and I think they will win, only to lose to Mizzou. That one win should get Texas in the dance, IMO
Mississippi State - anyone who's watched this team would agree they are capable of losing to UGA or beating Vandy. I think neither happens. They win 1 and are in the dance.
South Florida - Villanova could make it a close game, but I think USF gets by. It's fortunate that USF didn't fall to a 7 seed, because that could have been a play in game between Seton Hall and the Bulls. USF loses their 2nd game to Notre Dame and is firmly on the bubble.
Northwestern - this is the team most at risk in their tournament of getting upset. I'm picking the Golden Gophers to end their tourney hopes
Arizona - see above. Right now they are out, but they have the biggest opportunity to move up considering the Pac12 sucks and they could very well win their tournament. If they make it to the Champ game, they are squarely on the bubble. I think they lose to UCLA.
VCU - if they lose tonight, they are firmly on the bubble
Miami - Unfortunately playing in Atlanta won't give GA Tech any advantage in their first round game. Miami wins that, but I think they'll lose to Florida State and extinguish their NCAA dance hopes.
Oregon - Again, the Pac12 sucks so who knows. I think they will beat Colorado and then fall to Cal, not improving their position on the bubble.
NC State - They are an enigma. On paper they could be the 3rd best team in the ACC. But they can't put all the pieces together. Mostly, they make a lot of dumb plays. If they play smart they could easily beat UVA in the quarterfinals - something I doubt they do. That will be for a ticket to the dance, IMO. If not, they're done.
Iona - the rest of the bubble would need to implode.
Seton Hall - I love that Louisville fell to 7th in the conference to meet them in the 2nd round. That's where Seton Hall's at-large chances will come to an end.
Xavier - extremely at-risk, IMO. The bottom side of the A10 bracket is much harder than the top. They could easily lose their first game to Dayton. If not, they will get squashed by SLU - watch out for LaSalle, they probably won't beat SLU, but if they do, I could see them making a run of the trophy. Pretty dicey situation for Xavier.
Colorado St - unlike Xavier, they are in the easiest side of their respective bracket. They should skate by TCU, but I don't think they beat SDSU again this season. If they beat SDSU, they are a lock. This is one at-large team that I don't get. They really aren't very good and I would pick a number of the teams mentioned above over them. I just can't believe that 1 win in the MW tournament would be enough to get them in.
Tennessee - beats Ole Miss to lock in their bubble status. If we beat Vandy we're in. If we don't it depends on how the above games shake out.