Path to a #1 seed

#26
#26
We have sold out for Vandy. I think our fans are realizing how desperatly we need this win and hopefully our team too
 
#30
#30
I think we have at least 2 more losses heading into the SEC tournament. Potentially 3 more L's. Doubt we secure a # 1 seed if we finish behind Auburn, Alabama, Florida, A&M and possibly either Ole Miss and/or Missouri in the SEC standings.
 
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#31
#31
Dougie_D said:
As far as I know Auburn and Duke are locks as 2/4 number 1 seeds.

That leaves 2 left with :
Bama, TN, FL are floating around for those last spots.
After the KY loss , I think we may have slipped down to 3rd.
- Bama
- FL
- TN

Bama has everything to gain and everything to lose. Every single game left is a top 25 matchup.
They only get bounced out if they go 2-5 which seems unlikely .. SO- that will lead us FL and TN for last spot. I’m

Even if we win out we’d need a FL loss.
- OR,
If we lose 1 game it can only be against Bama , Ole Miss, or TX AM and hope FL loses twice to any team .

TN remaining schedule:
Vandy
@TX AM *
@lsu
Bama *
@Ole Miss *
South Carolina

Florida remaining schedule:
South Carolina
Oklahoma
@lsu
@Georgia
TX AM *
@bama *
Ole Miss *
Click to expand...
No such thing as a lock with nearly a quarter of the regular season left to play. If Auburn or Duke drop 3-4 more games they’re staring at a #2 or #3 seed. Is it likely? No, but this is sports where anything can happen. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
 
#32
#32
IndianaVol said:
Battle for the 1 seeds is going to play out like the college football playoff did - SEC had 7 or 8 teams in contention for 12 spots.
SEC only put 3 teams in the CFP because we beat the hell out of each other.

Houston has a very good shot at a 1 seed. So does Purdue and St. John's...I also wouldn't be surprised if Iowa State or Arizona made a push.
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I don’t think St. John’s has the quality wins or the SOS. Even if they win out their ceiling is a 2 or 3.
 
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#33
#33
Zues1 said:
Miracle
Click to expand...
Maybe not as big of one as one might think.
For sure need some things to bounce our way.
But we control a lot of it, and what we don't is reasonably possible if not likely.

A few things we need to happen for sure :
Alabama to lose to Auburn
Flordia to lose to Alabama
Us to beat Alabama
Us to beat Texas A &M

We may or may not have to win out as well.
If the above teams ( not including us) take other L's besides what is listed above, it could allow us to take an extra L, too.
 
#34
#34
VolCalls said:
I don’t think St. John’s has the quality wins or the SOS. Even if they win out their ceiling is a 2 or 3.
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I have always liked St. John's. I'm glad Pitino is reviving them a bit. While their paths changed for entirely different reasons, Pitino is sort of following the Barnes' model. He gets guys that will buy into playing tough ass defense
 
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#35
#35
I think we are in a battle between Bama and Florida to see who has the best finish to the regular season. We still play Bama at home and Bama hosts Florida. But its Bama that has a gauntlet to play through and will have an opportunity to lock itself into a #1 seed.

My guess though is that it is most likely that not much separates us from Bama and Florida by the end of the season. So the SEC tourney could mean alot if any of us have to play each other at any point or if one of us wins the whole tournament.
 
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#36
#36
I foresee:

Vandy - W
TAMU - L
LSU - W
Bama - W (toss up / Bama can score)
Ole Miss - L
USC - W

11-7 in conference / 24 - 7 overall.

To get a one seed we would probably need a really strong showing in the SEC tournament. I think the team - depending on SEC tournament play - ends up with a 2 seed.

If you add a loss to Bama . . . And end up 10-8 / 24-8 and lose game one in the SEC tournament . . . I think we get a 3 seed.
 
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#37
#37
Go47 said:
I foresee:

Vandy - W
TAMU - L
LSU - W
Bama - W (toss up / Bama can score)
Ole Miss - L
USC - W

11-7 in conference / 24 - 7 overall.

To get a one seed we would probably need a really strong showing in the SEC tournament. I think the team - depending on SEC tournament play - ends up with a 2 seed.

If you add a loss to Bama . . . And end up 10-8 / 24-8 and lose game one in the SEC tournament . . . I think we get a 3 seed.
Click to expand...
It won't matter what we do in the SEC tournament if we go 5-1 in these last 6
 
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#40
#40
None of this matters. Since 2001, no team has won the tournament that finished the season ranked outside of the top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The lone exception is UCONN in 2014. Tennessee is ranked 37th. A lower seed would help the PR of this team not being that good
 
#41
#41
Purplehaze26 said:
No, but tough schedule puts them in 2 seed
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I agree but Bama has already beat TXAM, Illinois, Houston and Creighton.
If they beat AU ? That’s tough not to put them on as the 1 overall .
If Bama sweeps KY, we can’t beat that. They already beat them at Rupp. If they split , that’s still better than us.
The reality is that AU, Bama, FL, TN can’t all be 1 seeds. FL has the weakest schedule but they beat AU and we did not.
Bama would have to lose all their home games to crumble out.
 
#42
#42
Go47 said:
I foresee:

Vandy - W
TAMU - L
LSU - W
Bama - W (toss up / Bama can score)
Ole Miss - L
USC - W

11-7 in conference / 24 - 7 overall.

To get a one seed we would probably need a really strong showing in the SEC tournament. I think the team - depending on SEC tournament play - ends up with a 2 seed.

If you add a loss to Bama . . . And end up 10-8 / 24-8 and lose game one in the SEC tournament . . . I think we get a 3 seed.
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If we are not in top 4 in SEC and get the double byes we are not getting a number 1 seed. The SEC tournament is worthless when you compare it the SEC regular season
 
#43
#43
Stoked said:
I’m more worried about A&M and Ole Miss on the road than I am of Bama at home. Barnes has had Oates number the past three times we played them. They very well could lose to us, and Auburn twice. Then lose to UK (again), Florida, and @ Mizzou. They had an easy SEC schedule at the beginning and now it’s brutal towards the end of it.

2-5 for them isn’t as crazy as it seems.
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I think they are going to win convincingly at home vs Auburn. JMO
 
#45
#45
I have a bold prediction. After non conference play I predicted we would go 25-6(12-6) in conference play. My bold prediction is that we just lose 1 more game down the stretch, but that we upset #1 Alabama at home. If we do this the path to a 1 seed is still possible. We would finish with good wins against Vandy and old miss. We would finish with a great win over the potential #1 team, and then take care of business against LSU and USCjr. Our only remaining loss, that I see, is against Texas A&M. To me that one is tough, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we can beat them. The worst we do in this final stretch is 2 losses IMO, but undefeated is not an unreasonable expectation. When we are playing our game we are better than all the teams left on our schedule. Except for maybe Alabama. We got them at home though that’s why I have that one as a win. Interested to see what happens.
 
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#46
#46
CNeagleVolFan said:
I have a bold prediction. After non conference play I predicted we would go 25-6(12-6) in conference play. My bold prediction is that we just lose 1 more game down the stretch, but that we upset #1 Alabama at home. If we do this the path to a 1 seed is still possible. We would finish with good wins against Vandy and old miss. We would finish with a great win over the potential #1 team, and then take care of business against LSU and USCjr. Our only remaining loss, that I see, is against Texas A&M. To me that one is tough, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we can beat them. The worst we do in this final stretch is 2 losses IMO, but undefeated is not an unreasonable expectation. When we are playing our game we are better than all the teams left on our schedule. Except for maybe Alabama. We got them at home though that’s why I have that one as a win. Interested to see what happens.
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Still possible that we go 5-1 but we are still on the outside of FL. Need FL to have a worse record than us down the stretch.
 
#47
#47
Dougie_D said:
Still possible that we go 5-1 but we are still on the outside of FL. Need FL to have a worse record than us down the stretch.
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Need Bama to lost to Auburn ( both times would be nice) but Bama to beat Florida.
This would at least put us in position to be in control of our own destiny the rest of the year.
 
#48
#48
Dougie_D said:
Still possible that we go 5-1 but we are still on the outside of FL. Need FL to have a worse record than us down the stretch.
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IMO Duke is the weak link out of the 4 1 seeds. They’re in the worst ACC in recent memory, and they have the weakest resume out of the top seeds. If they slip up down the stretch I think we could pass them up.
 
#49
#49
Dougie_D said:
As far as I know Auburn and Duke are locks as 2/4 number 1 seeds.

That leaves 2 left with :
Bama, TN, FL are floating around for those last spots.
After the KY loss , I think we may have slipped down to 3rd.
- Bama
- FL
- TN

Bama has everything to gain and everything to lose. Every single game left is a top 25 matchup.
They only get bounced out if they go 2-5 which seems unlikely .. SO- that will lead us FL and TN for last spot. I’m

Even if we win out we’d need a FL loss.
- OR,
If we lose 1 game it can only be against Bama , Ole Miss, or TX AM and hope FL loses twice to any team .

TN remaining schedule:
Vandy
@TX AM *
@lsu
Bama *
@Ole Miss *
South Carolina

Florida remaining schedule:
South Carolina
Oklahoma
@lsu
@Georgia
TX AM *
@bama *
Ole Miss *
Click to expand...

There is no realistic path to a #1 unless you are being delusional.
 
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