POLL: POTUS Who Do You Think Will WIN? (2020)

One Week To Go - POTUS Do You Think Will Win?

  • Trump

    Votes: 98 60.1%

  • Biden

    Votes: 57 35.0%

  • Jorgensen (Libertarian)

    Votes: 3 1.8%

  • Hawkins (Green Party)

    Votes: 2 1.2%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 2.5%
  • Total voters
    163
#76
#76
Rifleman said:
If there is going to be one real Trump shocker out there, I'd say it would be Nevada. His voters there have very little concern about his coarseness, or they are very conservative Mormons who will come around.

I'm just looking at demographic shifts and whether the other state and local races tell a different story from the presidential data.

Ohio has a lot of counter data for both candidates. Texas is too unknown to quantify and has a massive number of lawsuits in the air.

Georgia and Florida have a lot of strong Biden indicators, but more counter-indicators than the others considered swing states. I wouldn't count these among the cooked, but there is a clear leader.

Iowa and Pennsylvania have been in this category, as well, but I think they are gone now.
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I think we are in unchartered waters.... I will be curious to see the participation rate, but difficult to tell with COVID. Considering we get what 60% in a typical election, with 100% participation they could win with a bloc write in vote theoretically..lol
 
#77
#77
Orangeburst said:
I think we are in unchartered waters.... I will be curious to see the participation rate, but difficult to tell with COVID. Considering we get what 60% in a typical election, with 100% participation they could win with a bloc write in vote theoretically..lol
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My guess from the data is we will cross 63% in the presidential race, which would get you over 151 million voters out of 239 million eligible.

Now, if you see significantly higher turnout than that, 5% or more, uncertainty really ratchets up and you could see some crazy stuff. I'd love to see it no matter who wins.

In the last election, you only got 60.2% to vote, but 0.7% of those left the presidential race unmarked. Understandable, but kind of a sad state of affairs.
 
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#78
#78
It Trump loses it may be because he chose the wrong hill to die on. Covid. I believe had he just said we're going to do everything we can to mitigate this pandemic but we have to keep the economy open and moving. Please wear masks while you are out and about. Social distance and keep gatherings as small and short as possible. Then start an INTENSE internet, TV and radio campaign to make people aware of the best known ways to help prevent transmission. I will agree it was mostly blue states that shut down but that could have been blunted with the right kind of leadership. Even now he's spreading misinformation by telling people the corner is turned and it's nearly over. All the while record numbers of people are becoming ill. Thankfully fewer are dying percentage wise but I'm sure that is attributed to large scale testing. But the fact is we're still likely to lose somewhere in the hundreds of thousands more people. It is not the common flu and it should never have been treated like it .
 
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#79
#79
Rifleman said:
My guess from the data is we will cross 63% in the presidential race, which would get you over 151 million voters out of 239 million eligible.

Now, if you see significantly higher turnout than that, 5% or more, uncertainty really ratchets up and you could see some crazy stuff. I'd love to see it no matter who wins.

In the last election, you only got 60.2% to vote, but 0.7% of those left the presidential race unmarked. Understandable, but kind of a sad state of affairs.
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My goodness I hope participation doesnt increase. As candidates trend worse and participation trends higher, the parties will be convinced their future rests on substandard candidates which produce higher turnouts. That is not a future I look forward to.
 
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#80
#80
I actually chose both Trump and Biden, cause I think it's going to be a squeaker either way so I have no idea.
 
#81
#81
Hunerwadel said:
It Trump loses it may be because he chose the wrong hill to die on. Covid. I believe had he just said we're going to do everything we can to mitigate this pandemic but we have to keep the economy open and moving. Please wear masks while you are out and about. Social distance and keep gatherings as small and short as possible. Then start an INTENSE internet, TV and radio campaign to make people aware of the best known ways to help prevent transmission. I will agree it was mostly blue states that shut down but that could have been blunted with the right kind of leadership. Even now he's spreading misinformation by telling people the corner is turned and it's nearly over. All the while record numbers of people are becoming ill. Thankfully fewer are dying percentage wise but I'm sure that is attributed to large scale testing. But the fact is we're still likely to lose somewhere in the hundreds of thousands more people. It is not the common flu and it should never have been treated like it .
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The fact is he Can’t say that and that’s the problem. In no world should he be losing to Biden.
 
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#87
#87
bigvols98 said:
This cuts both ways
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Not really..... Trump has done well.... Biden can’t even campaign for himself.... he’s the most lifeless and weak individual to ever run for President. He’s nothing but a freaking ass puppet and the USA will end up with Kamala..... if Biden wins I hope every stupid SOB that votes for him feels the impact of his presidency..... right in their bank account
 
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#94
#94
I'm guessing there's a large intersection of folks who think Trump will win and folks who think Gruden was going to be our coach.
 
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#95
#95
I know people are doubting the polling, but many polls last time didn't properly account for uneducated whites because uneducated whites had largely voted in the same way as educated whites. They've tried to correct those sampling errors this year. What the polls probably AREN'T catching is the increase turnout in the black vote. If anything, I think we'll see that the polls erred in FAVOR of Trump this year.
 
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#96
#96
evillawyer said:
I know people are doubting the polling, but many polls last time didn't properly account for uneducated whites because uneducated whites had largely voted in the same way as educated whites. They've tried to correct those sampling errors this year. What the polls probably AREN'T catching is the increase turnout in the black vote. If anything, I think we'll see that the polls erred in FAVOR of Trump this year.
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"I know they were wrong last time, but those same errant pollsters have assured me that they're definitely correct this time around so clearly there's no way that they'd mess up their methodology again."
 
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#98
#98
evillawyer said:
I know people are doubting the polling, but many polls last time didn't properly account for uneducated whites because uneducated whites had largely voted in the same way as educated whites. They've tried to correct those sampling errors this year. What the polls probably AREN'T catching is the increase turnout in the black vote. If anything, I think we'll see that the polls erred in FAVOR of Trump this year.
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So, what’s the metric used to correct for this?
 
#100
#100
evillawyer said:
I know people are doubting the polling, but many polls last time didn't properly account for uneducated whites because uneducated whites had largely voted in the same way as educated whites. They've tried to correct those sampling errors this year. What the polls probably AREN'T catching is the increase turnout in the black vote. If anything, I think we'll see that the polls erred in FAVOR of Trump this year.
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Earth shattering analysis and completely something we wouldn’t expect from you sister!
 
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