Projected SEC Standings

#1
golfballs

golfballs

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#1
Alabama Crimson Tide top projected SEC standings for 2013 - College Football - ESPN

Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

On Monday we're looking at the projections for the SEC, which features a handful of top programs with one team clearly favored to win the league title.

SEC West

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected finish: 11-1
Win total range: 10-2 to 12-0
Chance to win SEC: 62 percent

2. LSU Tigers
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 8 percent

3. Texas A&M Aggies
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 5 percent

4. Ole Miss Rebels
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win SEC: 1 percent

5. Auburn Tigers
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent

7. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent


SEC East

1. South Carolina Gamecocks
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 10 percent

2. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 7 percent

3. Florida Gators
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 7 percent

4. Missouri Tigers
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 4-8 to 9-3
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent

5. Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent

6. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
The Volunteers pay visits to Oregon and Florida in the first three weeks of the season, a pair of back-to-back road trips that may be unrivaled in college football this season. October features games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama in a four-week span. If Tennessee can survive those stretches with any kind of confidence, a strong finish to the season can push the Volunteers into a bowl game. That confidence needs to come from an experienced defense that must improve its production; Tennessee ranked 99th in generating turnovers last year, and 96th in overall defensive efficiency.

7. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
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#4
#4
We will finish better than 5 wins for sure. Im not worried about standings this early. Id be willing to bet we suprise alot of people this year, matter of fact im counting on it. :rock:
 
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#5
#5
4th is a good, realistic goal..... kills me to type that but its true. at this point in our development finishing behind SC, Uf and UGA is a given. cant fall behind the other guys though. 4th this year, top two next year and contend for a SEC title year 3. thats the progression im thinking.
 
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#8
#8
pualsline said:
Butch Jones will lead us higher than 6th
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I hope we win 8 games this year. Many "experts" have us winning 7 or fewer. It would be nice to exceed those expectations. Also, I believe that most fans would accept 8 wins with our situation and schedule. I think Butch can do it. GO VOLS
 
#9
#9
I don't see us being worse than Mizzou or Vandy next season. Yeah we've got a butt banging October ahead, but if Jones can keep the players motivated and giving 110%, I see those games as wins and UT going bowling.
 
#10
#10
I think we get 6 wins. But 5 is certainly possible.

Has anyone seen Vegas win Over/unders yet?
 
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#11
#11
Ertel said:
4th is a good, realistic goal..... kills me to type that but its true. at this point in our development finishing behind SC, Uf and UGA is a given. cant fall behind the other guys though. 4th this year, top two next year and contend for a SEC title year 3. thats the progression im thinking.
Click to expand...

I agree. I have about the same feelings on the predictions. 4th this year, 2nd next year, and winning the east in 2015 would be great.
 
#12
#12
Any thing that says a team has a 0% chance to win anything is dumb. It's football not a math problem. There is always a shot, no matter how small, bad, or untalented a team is.


These projections are worthless.
 
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#13
#13
It's about accurate I'd say, and that's not a knock on CBJ. He just doesn't have experienced skill position personnel to work with. Add in a new starting QB and our brutal schedule and I can see 5-7 or 6-6.
 
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#15
#15
golfballs said:
I think we get 6 wins. But 5 is certainly possible.

Has anyone seen Vegas win Over/unders yet?
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I have not seen them. The only thing I have seen is the national championship odds for the 2014 championship. They have Tennessee 1000/1 odds and Alabama is at the top with 5/2 odds.
 
#16
#16
Vol4life25 said:
Any thing that says a team has a 0% chance to win anything is dumb. It's football not a math problem. There is always a shot, no matter how small, bad, or untalented a team is.


These projection are worthless.
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It's called rounding. The odds are less than 0.5%
 
#23
#23
Rifleman said:
Aggies have the best shot at them this year, but Bama conveniently has an off week before their two toughest opponents. Funny how that happens.
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Cool, so we beat Bama, yet lose to three other schools. Good to know.

Preseason polls = crap.
 
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#24
#24
TXA&M07 said:
Cool, so we beat Bama, yet lose to three other schools. Good to know.

Preseason polls = crap.
Click to expand...

I'll be interested to see what their game-by-game projections look like.

I would bet that their projection has Bama winning every single game, but over the course of a season, there are enough close games that they're likely to get a loss somewhere.
 
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