Recruiting Football Talk VII

[knoxvol52]

Why on earth with 1 year before being able to go pro would Judkins leave Ole Miss?

SEC team that's got a pretty easy schedule next season
You're -the guy- 274 carries as a FR, 271 as a SO
On a team that is winning 8-5 as a FR, 11-2 as a SO
Stability, Kiffin is getting paid and not going anywhere AND Dart should be back for his senior year

Unless the kid just has no plans or desire to go to the NFL why on earth would you leave Ole Miss now with just a year before you're chasing real money as arguably the first RB taken?

Money !!!

 

[InVOLuntary]

I looked at the bolded statement recently and looked at all of our opponents offensive efficiency rating over the last 3 years. I used SP+ advanced stats, ESPN FPI advanced stats, and then looked at opponent adjusted PPA/EPA which is very important for looking at how units performed.

SP+ Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings supported your thoughts.. National average in parentheses:
2021- 28.65 (28.64)
2022- 27.77 (27.67)
2023- 26.98 (25.86)

ESPN FPI Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings didn’t agree with your thoughts, they actually think 2023 was the hardest we faced.. National average in parentheses:
2021 - 56.67 (49.14)
2022- 59.56 (48.99)
2023- 62.74 (49.69)

So SP+ thinks last year was the worst out of the 3 when averaging offenses efficiency ratings that we faced. ESPN FPI though thinks the opposite and they think 2023 was the toughest.

Both of those ratings are built off a number of different stats and analyses and they both will weight things differently, so not too surprising they are different, but one thing that is the backbone of a lot of advanced stats in football is Predicted Points Added (PPA)/Expected Points Added (EPA). This looks at every play an offense/defense/special teams has for the year and adds a point value for success or not success plus some other factors. If you look at opponent adjusted PPA of the offenses we have faced the last 3 years:

2021- .216 (.201)
2022- .208 (.177)
2023- .212 (.179)

So, PPA would have his first year as the toughest, then 2023, then 2022. In the end it depends on what service you want to use to support whatever argument when it comes to SP+ and ESPN FPI.. but PPA/EPA is the very close to the same formula no matter who does it so I look at that one a little more heavily personally. JMO.

This wasn’t meant to say you are wrong or right, everyone can make their own hypothesis based off the stats and what they think they saw over the year and at least one of the advanced stats agrees with you, I just wanted to provide some numbers for anyone interested for the bolded statement in your post.

Go look at each team we faced and decide which team was better. Get your head out of the numbers. Numbers lie.

 

[drvenner]

Still the absolute best line in the history of broadcasting.

 

[InVOLuntary]

What?...that we LITERALLY beat 9 teams?

You remember 3 years ago when we lost a load of games and had a bottom 3rd of the NCAA defense?...I remember. It sucks that you are going full Chiggerhorde retard on Banks and the defense...it's dumb.

The defense has gotten quantifiably measurably better every year since Banks took over..period. I don't understand why you hate him so bad....and never will.

The defense is no better than the day Banks got here, regardless of what metrics you point to. The d line is better. What's our best win?

 

[Chuckie]

Lol...look y'all...Chuckie has me ignored...makes me feel special

I don't have you ignored...I was saying I didn't know who Churchill was referring to, you miserable curmudgeon.

 

[InVOLuntary]

Your screen name is appropriate.

 

[MarcoVol]

Go look at each team we faced and decide which team was better. Get your head out of the numbers. Numbers lie.

You must’ve thought UGA defense wasn’t any good this year then?

 

[InVOLuntary]

Who are the DCs you want them to go get?

I don't think it matters. You all would defend Sal Sunseri.

 

[InVOLuntary]

i think that's a bit short sided, because if the defense was bad, they'd be bad. and they simply weren't. we aren't good enough yet to be considered at the top of the conf, but relative to where we are in that pecking order, we did very well. the defense won the aTm game basically, and while nobody is going to sing the praises of the Iowa offense...that's a program that won 10 games and played for a big 10 title...and we shut them out....which is what a good defense does to a bad offense.

i don't think anyone believes the defense is elite. but it's really hard to argue that they didn't get better from one year to the next, even with the limitations at DB and LB.....

If we played all division 2 teams would the defense be better?

 

[orangejuice]

Go look at each team we faced and decide which team was better. Get your head out of the numbers. Numbers lie.

You sound like one of my construction managers who refuses to use a computer.

 

[InVOLuntary]

You must’ve thought UGA defense wasn’t any good this year then?

What team did we face, that we won that had a decent offense?

 

[Ericvol2096]

Why on earth with 1 year before being able to go pro would Judkins leave Ole Miss?

SEC team that's got a pretty easy schedule next season
You're -the guy- 274 carries as a FR, 271 as a SO
On a team that is winning 8-5 as a FR, 11-2 as a SO
Stability, Kiffin is getting paid and not going anywhere AND Dart should be back for his senior year

Unless the kid just has no plans or desire to go to the NFL why on earth would you leave Ole Miss now with just a year before you're chasing real money as arguably the first RB taken?

Kids are emotional, you see your coach spouting off on Twitter about all the big name guys you are landing and the rumors swirl how much they are making and you get upset you weren't taken care of first. You then complain to the coach and he says no way we are paying you what your asking for and you get even more upset and now the relationship is soiled and you are in the portal.

 

[InVOLuntary]

You sound like one of my construction managers who refuses to use a computer.

I don't need a computer or stats to contradict what I see on the field.

 

[drvenner]

Stability is what won Iowa ten games last year. Nothing more. Literally nothing more. It sure wasn't talent or scheme.

Huepel leans into schematic advantages. Stability and continuity are part of that formula. Does he lean into it too hard like Ferentz? I don't think so, but some might. It is Heupel's strategy though. He does not lie to players he does not over commit, he holds his promises (Milton), and some ask why. The answer: stability for players. They know what to expect because he sticks to his word. Did that strategy land us Seaton? No. Did it produce some of the lowest turnover in the conference? Yes.

If you want to have debates I think this is the debate. Is ultimate CFB success possible with loyalty and stability as a priority? Washington is a case study this year. It will be interesting to see how they finish.

Stability yes. Also weak-ass schedule.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

The defense is no better than the day Banks got here, regardless of what metrics you point to. The d line is better. What's our best win?

What you're saying is that you're 100% subjective in the matter and nothing tangible (metrics, stats, etc.) will change your personal bias against Banks.

That's completely fine, but just own that ****. You're arguing as if everyone is just going to go "yeah, your bias ass opinion is the only proof I need!" and that's simply not how most people work.

But by EVERY metric Banks' defense is better than the **** show Pruitt put out there.

 

[All_Vol87]

I like them healthy.

Tell me you like a challenge without telling me you like a challenge

 

[drylo]

Listening to Hubbs this morning on the VQ podcast talk about how UT needs to get back to explosive pass plays… (a) I agree clearly we want explosive pass plays (everybody does), but (b) look at our run game.

Which brings me to the Judkins thread:

Wright averaged 7.4 ypc this year. Sampson averaged 5.7. Small averaged 5.0.

As a team, we ran for over 200 yards a game. This is our personnel, but it’s also Heupel.

We will not need Judkins in order to destroy people in the run game next year.

If you have not listened to The Playcallers podcast that the Athletic did over the summer (which I’m surprised doesn’t look like it’s been discussed on here), drop everything and go listen to it.

Then think long and hard about Alfred Morris going for 1,600+ yards at 4.8 ypc with the Redskins, and about what McCaffrey, Mostert/Achane and Kyren Williams are doing in the run game this year. And then look at Jaylen Wright averaging 7.4 (!) ypc this year.

And then tell me Heupel’s offense depends on gimmicky pass plays.

Calling my shot- With a QB who can process the offense quickly, has good football instincts, good mobility and can sling it, this offense is going to be deadly next year.

 

[Chuckie]

Some dude that ignored me

Wrong

 

[Big Sun]

Peak meteor shower tonight. . . can't see it in Knoxville, it's overcast.

Saw a good one looking south below Orion around midnight. Best I've seen in awhile. From Anderson County

 

[MarcoVol]

What team did we face, that we won that had a decent offense?

But UGA was incredibly more talented on defense than every team they faced on offense. Do you not measure other teams victories in the same way you measure Vols?

 

[MoCo_Vol]

People have always misrepresented what Heupel's system is about.

It's not a tempo, throw it all over the yard offensive scheme. It's not Air Raid either. It's efficiency, most deep ball shots are single coverage where the defense is usually slow to react or out of position or just flat tired.

The most efficient offensive play is still running the ball for 5+ yards a carry, we go about getting there with tempo and spreading defenses out. Other teams like Army and old school Nebraska went about it with size, strength, numbers and scheme.

But on a pass play more things can go wrong, no pass protection, bad throw, WR runs the wrong route, QB throws a duck, etc. etc. on a run play you just need a few things to go right and you're moving the chains.

 

[Vols410]

Go look at each team we faced and decide which team was better. Get your head out of the numbers. Numbers lie.

So do eyes lol

 

[rikberry31]

Surprised by this.

He's looking at the deals the guys coming in are getting. Probably just wants to renegotiate.

 

[Orange_Crush]

 

[VolByLaw]

Lane having a rough day.

won’t shock me to see Baron and TMac take a visit to a non SEC school because they can to leverage more money.

It will come out later today. I’m not gonna totally steal someone’s thunder. They still have to make it on the visit and even then I think it’s all a money play to get a few more dollars.

-AP