Recruiting Football Talk VII

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#82,451
#82,451
SmokinBob said:
This is what frustrates me the most - no one wants to take the shot and/or no creative movement off the ball toward the basket.
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I think that is why he struggle some in the tournament…. our intensity and defense is really strong in the regular season….. In the tourney….. other teams match our intensity/defense….!our offense struggles a little more bc other teams intensity/defense has ratcheted up a notch.
 
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#82,452
#82,452
Nash_Vol97 said:
I looked at the bolded statement recently and looked at all of our opponents offensive efficiency rating over the last 3 years. I used SP+ advanced stats, ESPN FPI advanced stats, and then looked at opponent adjusted PPA/EPA which is very important for looking at how units performed.

SP+ Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings supported your thoughts.. National average in parentheses:
2021- 28.65 (28.64)
2022- 27.77 (27.67)
2023- 26.98 (25.86)

ESPN FPI Opponent adjusted offensive efficiency ratings didn’t agree with your thoughts, they actually think 2023 was the hardest we faced.. National average in parentheses:
2021 - 56.67 (49.14)
2022- 59.56 (48.99)
2023- 62.74 (49.69)

So SP+ thinks last year was the worst out of the 3 when averaging offenses efficiency ratings that we faced. ESPN FPI though thinks the opposite and they think 2023 was the toughest.

Both of those ratings are built off a number of different stats and analyses and they both will weight things differently, so not too surprising they are different, but one thing that is the backbone of a lot of advanced stats in football is Predicted Points Added (PPA)/Expected Points Added (EPA). This looks at every play an offense/defense/special teams has for the year and adds a point value for success or not success plus some other factors. If you look at opponent adjusted PPA of the offenses we have faced the last 3 years:

2021- .216 (.201)
2022- .208 (.177)
2023- .212 (.179)

So, PPA would have his first year as the toughest, then 2023, then 2022. In the end it depends on what service you want to use to support whatever argument when it comes to SP+ and ESPN FPI.. but PPA/EPA is the very close to the same formula no matter who does it so I look at that one a little more heavily personally. JMO.

This wasn’t meant to say you are wrong or right, everyone can make their own hypothesis based off the stats and what they think they saw over the year and at least one of the advanced stats agrees with you, I just wanted to provide some numbers for anyone interested for the bolded statement in your post.
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Great. Now @InVOLuntary is going to be breaking out his abacus again.
 
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#82,458
#82,458
InVOLuntary said:
Both. 3 years in, when you're in charge of the Jimmies and Joe's, that excuse starts wearing thin. We'll see in '24.
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If you know anything about coaching, it takes three years to turn over a roster. After three years there is no one who remembers a time when you were not the coach and the team is truly yours. I agree that next year is important for Heup. I think a lot of people are going to be very surprised next year. Probably some screen name changes. Heup plays the long game, he is building a program.
 
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#82,461
#82,461
VolByLaw said:
Lane having a rough day.


-AP
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89r987.gif
 
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#82,465
#82,465
Honestly though if the offense had performed this year like last year we would have had a damn good chance at playing Monday night.

So year to year I don't know if Banks has really improved as a DC...we've recruited better talent and this year's schedule was weaker than last year. I think that all factors into things. But who cares? We want them to give up less yards (they did) we want them to give up less points (they did) and we wanted more sacks (they got them). Who they do that against doesn't mean a damn thing to me, you can only beat the teams in front of you. If they pitch a shutout against Chattanooga to open the season I'm not going to complain that the Mocs aren't as strong of an offense as Austin Peay in 2023 was!

But Banks is and has absolutely done better as DC than Pruitt or anyone under him had while here.
 
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#82,466
#82,466
DD4ME said:
The problem with that is how does a guy develop that never sees the field? We did have defensive starters closing games that were well in hand. Those were wasted opportunities in many minds.
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There was no one who didn't play in the regular season, especially in garbage time, you just never heard their names and if you weren't looking closely than it seemed that they never played. Maybe their names weren't called because they didn't really know what they were doing yet, ojt.
 
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