Recruiting Football Talk VIII

Early lines this week were UGA -13.5, so i dont think the injury is really much in play. The only thing that keeps heavy betting on UT is the unknown with Nico. UGA can't score until the second half. We shut teams down in the second half. I'd take us to cover with or without Nico. If UGA gets a lead, they're gonna nurse it and play keep away.
Yes, I honestly think both teams may be looking at this. First team with 7-10 lead will be looking to bleed clock.
If Nico is back we have the better QB but Beck has more big experience and he’s playing at home. Of course if we can force a pick or strip sack then the natives will get restless 👊🏻🍊
 
We played less in the box to defend the pass which has been Miss State bread and butter.
I understand that...I've watched it again, so I have an even better understanding of that..but..our DL played the softest, or passive that I've seen them play all year, and our LBs were out of position a lot..and missed tackles when they were in position.

The DL has been consistently violent and aggressive all year in pushing the line and getting off blocks and they just were not doing either consistently yesterday.

I know it's human nature...it is impossible to be 100% on all the time....I just hope that stuff doesn't happen against UGA or Vandy.
 
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Upon rewatch...we were just discombobulated and/or passive on too many plays last night.
We also ran a lot of 3 men. Just begging them to run in the 2nd half, while we stayed in front.

Nice gameplan to bleed the game out, with no Nico...Samp banged up. Perfect really.
 
If we beat GA, we're obviously in (taking vandy as a win).

If the Vols lose to GA it's 50/50 IMO and will depend on other teams losses. Also, the manner in which we lose. If it's a very close game I think that bodes well. If it's similar to 2022 or worse, I'd say we're out. JMO.
I feel like we should be in better shape than 50/50 with a loss based on our current ranking.

With that said, there are five (six if TAMU beats Texas) team competing for realistically four spots. All teams would have compelling arguments for why they should be in.

Something not thought about is that IF we take our second loss we probably miss the SEC Championship game, meaning one of the two loss teams that might inch in front of us could then be pushed back out by suffering a third loss.
 
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This is what happens when nerds make the rankings.
The nerds...FPI, SP+, SOR and efficiency models have us quite a bit lower than human polls...sportswriters.

Ranked 9th in most of them.

Human polls seem to tend toward "deserverdness" rather than who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, like a power ranking. Similar to how we'll be more than a 2.5 pt underdog to UGA, despite likely being ranked a handful of spots higher.
 
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I understand that...I've watched it again, so I have an even better understanding of that..but..our DL played the softest, or passive that I've seen them play all year, and our LBs were out of position a lot..and missed tackles when they were in position.

The DL has been consistently violent and aggressive all year in pushing the line and getting off blocks and they just were not doing either consistently yesterday.

I know it's human nature...it is impossible to be 100% on all the time....I just hope that stuff doesn't happen against UGA or Vandy.
The linebackers are missing Pilli more than most think. It just hasn’t cost them much yet
 
Well they did just kill LSU at LSU. They also beat UGA. Besides Bama, who have we beat?

Two wins against good teams
We have one.

Here’s the records for the teams we’ve played.
Vols: 37-48
Bama: 44-41

We squeeze by mediocre teams because of defense. If the offense would’ve taken care of business we would be having a different convo. Reality is, if our defense wasn’t this good our record would probably be around 4-4.

Also, when the announcer last night says, “Miss St averages more points in the SEC than UTs offense does”, that’s an issue
They also lost to Vandy. You can’t disregard that game.
 
The nerds...FPI, SP+, SOR and efficiency models have us quite a bit lower than human polls...sportswriters.

Ranked 9th in most of them.

Human polls seem to tend toward "deserverdness" rather than who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, like a power ranking. Similar to how we'll be more than a 2.5 pt underdog to UGA, despite likely being ranked a handful of spots higher.
That’s a fair point!
 

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