it won't be forgotten that Ole Miss lost at home to UK, or that Vandy not only beat Bama, but they never trailed and controlled that game from start to finish, or that we lost to Arkansas. i don't think you can forget about UGA looking bad against UK, getting absolutely whooped for 3/4 of the Bama game and of course, getting worked at Ole Miss. and it may turn out that LSU beating Ole Miss might wind up being a "bad" loss for Ole Miss too....
you can't over look USCe throttling aTm, or the beat down UGA put on TX....honestly i don't envy the committee this year, when it comes to the SEC, i don't think you can really say any of the teams that are in it are necessarily a bad decision.
Common Opponents...Ole miss:
UK beats Ole Miss, we beat UK.
Arkansas beats TN, Ole Miss beats Ark...
we both beat OU
Ole Miss still has to play MSU and Florida...can Florida find it for one game?
TX:
we both beat MSU, FL, and OU
Left to play...we have to play Vandy and UGA, they have to play UK and Ark
but at this point, we basically want them to win out....and beat aTm to eliminate them. TX losing now just muddies up the water even more.
UGA:
we both beat UK, MSU, FL, they lost to Bama
we beat Bama, and we have a head to head to play....we beat them they're eliminated...they win, it closes our window a bit.
Bama:
they beat UGA, we have to play UGA
they lost to Vandy, we have to play Vandy
they still have to play OU, we beat OU.
we have the head to head W.
i don't see them losing again, but i didn't see them losing to Vandy.
we need to beat Vandy and keep pushing the narrative that head to head has to matter if we're deciding between Us and Them. (Ole miss will be pushing the same thing about UGA)
Texas A&M:
we lost to Ark, they beat Ark
we both beat MSU
that's it...need them to lose....if they beat TX, it looks like it would be Bama/aTm in Atlanta....
so not counting OOC games, which will come in to play, and ours doesn't look very good anymore, the actual resumes aren't all that far off, and there's still a lot of things that could happen these last 3 weeks. but if it's a beauty pageant/eye test deal....we need some committee members that value defense and run game.........we're more gritty than pretty....and that does have value, but i got not clue how much value. if styles make fights, then wouldn't you want us in there?
if we beat UGA, then it's almost a certainty that not only are we in, but we put ourselves in position to be a top 4 seed, and potentially a conf champ....TN vs. TX for the SEC would be awesome.
lose, and we may need some help, just to pad the resume a little. we want the ACC and Big 12 to be a 1 bid league. we want the big 10 to be a 3 bid league....but i think that's gonna be tough unless IU loses the last 2, or OSU just obliterates them....
so you get the power 4 conf champs, and the G5 entry, so there's 7 spots left. having no clue who wins the SEC and Big 10, we'll just say TX and Oregon for argument's sake, that leaves TN, Ole Miss, Bama, UGA (assume we're all 10-2) from the SEC and OSU, PSU and IU from the Big 10. oh, and don't forget Notre Dame. so that's potentially 8 teams for 7 spots...and whoever gets left out is probably gonna be pissed.
so it's not just our SEC bretheren we'll be matching resumes against, it will be those other Big 10 schools and ND...and that's when the analytics will start taking over the conversation more and more.
we want IU to get curb stomped at OSU. ....and if Ole MIss could lose to FL or MSU, that'd be just great. and we want ND to lose....but maybe not to Army...they're undefeated and beating ND could certainly put their name in the hat for an at large spot....but i'm not sure USCw has the horses to pull of that upset this year.
so it's not all doom and gloom...but it isn't a sure thing at 10-2 that we'd get in....
Chaos would be underdogs winning the ACC and/or the Big 12, making it possible either of those leagues could get 2 in.
if all of us are 10-2, i think this is the bracket we want to see:
Top 4:
Oregon
TX
Miami
BYU
G5:
Boise St
At Large:
Penn St
Ohio State
Alabama
Ole Miss
Georgia
Tennessee
Notre Dame