This is what I see happening:
1 Oregon vs 3 Penn State - if Ohio state wins, this stays the same 1 and 3. If Penn State wins and UGA wins, Penn State goes to No. 1, UGA to 2 and OSU to 3.
2 Texas vs 5 Georgia - if Texas wins they stay the same. 2 and 5. UGA will have a 3rd loss, but it won't count as regular season 3rd loss. If UGA wins, they go to 2 and Texas goes to 5th.
8 SMU vs 17 Clemson - only 1 team getting in - winner is in, loser is out, they will keep Bama in.
10 Boise State vs 20 UNLV - same here, only 1 team getting in.
15 Arizona State vs 16 Iowa State - only 1 team getting in.
Last thing I'll say... they have Ohio State 6th right now, which will put them as the 8th seed hosting a home game
If you think Georgia losing or Penn State losing doesn't end up benefiting the Suckeyes to get a better first round matchup you're crazy. We may not move a spot though in the shakeup but I think they'll do whatever they can to change Ohio State from an 8 vs 9 to a 6 or 7 vs 10 or 11
i think if you play this thing out...there's a couple of scenarios that could be in play. someone posted something bout us going to PSU because they'd want to protect the OSU/PSU head to head. on the surface that makes sense. it would, then, also make sense they'd want to do the same for TN/UGA. on that statement alone, it would mean we'd likely have no shot at moving anywhere.
but it also opens the door for us to go somewhere else besides happy valley or the horseshoe. based on what Ward said last night, they don't expect there to be much movement at all for the teams not playing, but the c'ship games would be evaluated and ranked as they've always done.
what that tells me is that the participants of the games may move some...but the order in which the other teams not playing isn't going to change.
so here's how that could work against us and put us in Athens.....
assuming protecting the h2h is up on the list of priorities, as was asserted earlier.
right now PSU is ahead of UGA. UGA is ahead of TN. so that order shouldn't change, even if the #'s next to our names might.
if PSU loses and they decide h2h against OSU matters, then you have to move PSU off the 3 line to move OSU ahead of them. so take them off 3, and put ND there. now what if UGA loses too? do you just move them up to protect OSU's h2h? or do you drop them a smidge for losing, like you're doing with PSU? i think in that scenario, you have to drop UGA a little bit too, right?
so now, you're going to leap frog OSU over UGA, and put them at 4. now you can put PSU behind OSU because of the h2h. so your top 5 would be Ore, tx, ND, OSU, PSU. now we're going to protect UGA's h2h over TN and put them at 6. and boom, just like that we're in Athens again.
bigger picture, if Clemson wins, Az St wins and Boise wins, you take these match ups we have today, and throw those out. your top 12 finishes out like this:
ore, tx, nd, osu, psu, uga, tn, ind, Bsu, Az St, Clemson, SMU.
rd 1: SMU @ ND , Clem @ OSU, IND @ PSU, TN @ UGA
i don't think you can justify moving OSU and PSU around just to protect that h2h, and not deal with UGA as a potential loser of a title game at all. you either move them both a little bit, or both not at all.....some will say it's really easy, just move PSU to 6. well, in that case, you just moved ND, UGA and OSU up....2 of thoese teams did nothing, and one of them lost. but PSU has to drop 3 spots just to protect OSU's h2h? I mean, i guess they could do that. it wouldn't affect UGA/TN at all....and they all would still get home games. but it just seems shady as hell that they'd literally be out to do just the one thing....protect OSU.
so for that reason i think they will throw h2h out the window after the title games. and it's far more likely it stays the same or there's some swapping between winners/losers of the big/SEC games, that's it. i think it's all but a certainty that we play in Columbus. and i really don't think you can put up the potential round 1 games they did last night and then give us those match ups above. that would suck.
it also brings in to question how match ups might sway voters to move teams in and out of the top 12. while i want Bama out, and will be rooting for Clemson this weekend.....even i can understand the difference between Bama @ ND vs SMU @ ND......and nobody wants to see TN@UGA again. IU and PSU is ok, but that's a game that really should have been played in the regular season....and if IND gets blown out, i think you kinda go back and say yeah, they didn't really belong did they? OSU/Clemson is a nice helmet game, but OSU blows them out. basically the 1st round games they gave us yesterday would be fantastic. this other version, just to protect h2h of osu/psu would suck.
long story short, i agree with
@SpringBokVol ...i think things are pretty much set, except for what happens with SMU if they lose....and is there a chance the big 12 winner replaces BSU (should they beat UNLV) at 4. if you're SMU....just don't get blown out....that needs to be a game that could've gone either way for them to get in as a loser. otherwise, i'm starting to think there's no way they keep bama out.....brand matters. and Bama @ ND probably had every TV executive involved in this thing foaming at the mouth.