I mean last year they punished FSU for losing a player while winning the ACC championship game. So we really don't know yet what they're going to do.
Year before TCU lost in their title game and didn't drop a spot because they didn't want Michigan vs Ohio State in the first round and then TCU beat them anyway
2021 OK State dropped 4 spots for losing in their title game. They have punished teams for losing and have also not...we really don't know what they'll do yet.
I think it's going to really come down to matchups, and if the decision is to protect Ohio State, Penn State, or Indiana in the first round they'll want to give Ohio State the best option.