Recruiting Football Talk VIII

[Jackcrevol]

PSA: Nerd stuff incoming.

Over the last 10 years in the SEC, only half of eventual starting OL get their first starter minutes before their RS-JR or SR year. 9% break in as FR, 24% as SO/RS-FR, 17% as JR/RS-SO, and 26% as SR/RS-JR, and 24% don't start until they're RS-SRs. The trend is pretty consistent across the FBS, and the numbers hold up for the likes of Bama / Georgia / etc. as well.

If we consider 2022 Heupel / Ellarbee's first shot at real recruiting class, those guys wouldn't hit that RS-JR / SR benchmark until next year.

2022 / JR (Expect to contribute in 2025):
Addison Nichols: Starter at Arkansas (2024)
Brian Grant: TBD (37 snaps this year)
Masai Reddick: TBD (0 snaps)
Maurice Clipper: Gone

2023 / SO (Expect to contribute in 2026):
Sham Umarov: TBD (66 snaps)
Ayden Bussell: TBD (62 snaps)
Trevor Duncan: TBD (8 snaps)
Vysen Lang: Gone (44 snaps)

2024 / FR (Expect to contribute in 2027):
Jesse Perry: TBD (72 snaps)
Max Anderson: TBD (47 snaps)
William Satterwhite: TBD (45 snaps)
Bennett Warren: TBD (40 snaps)
Gage Ginther: TBD (19 snaps)
Jeremias Heard: TBD (8 snaps)

I also want to note, we had 4/6 (66%) of our freshman OL and 3/4 (75%) of our sophomores get 40+ snaps. The SEC averages for those years are 37% and 47% respectively.

All this to say, yes - we haven't had Ellarbee recruits break into the starting lineup. That said, given the way OL progress in the SEC, you wouldn't really expect to see that happen until next year. Granted, the 2022 crop doesn't look especially close, but both the 2023 and 2024 groups are ahead of schedule in terms of snap counts, and the 2024 group in particular looks like one of the best freshmen groups in the country.

it's about recruiting. I think he is a developer. This program isnt looking for developmental projects any longer. We are chasing championships. Future coaches or future NFL players, you choose.

 

[Vols410]

it's about recruiting. I think he is a developer. This program isnt looking for developmental projects any longer. We are chasing championships. Future coaches or future NFL players, you choose.

That's fair. Looks like he gets that though considering the 2024 class and getting Sanders this year.

 

[VolNRaleighNC]

Michael Muñoz.
View attachment 704940
Trey Smith.
View attachment 704943
First two who come to mind.

The great Harry Galbreath, but he played guard.
View attachment 704945

Harry Galbreath looks 47 when he played at UT

 

[Vols410]

USCe's Kyle Kennard won the Bronco Nagurski award.

Sacks per Rush:
Kennard: 3.2%
Pearce: 3.4%

Pressure Rate:
Kennard: 11.5%
Pearce: 22.3%

1-on-1 Win Rate:
Kennard: 12.7%
Pearce: 23.0%

Run Defense Stop%:
Kennard: 3.8%
Pearce: 10.3%

My model thinks Pearce is worth 2.5 points per game over Kennard. Best EDGE in the country and #11 over the last 10 years.

 

[Jackcrevol]

That's fair. Looks like he gets that though considering the 2024 class and getting Sanders this year.

sanders is a win. but we lost kid to oregon. every pundit has said same thing about OL recruiting since day 1. Gotta widen the net.

 

[RiseToTheTop]

USCe's Kyle Kennard won the Bronco Nagurski award.

Sacks per Rush:
Kennard: 3.2%
Pearce: 3.4%

Pressure Rate:
Kennard: 11.5%
Pearce: 22.3%

1-on-1 Win Rate:
Kennard: 12.7%
Pearce: 23.0%

Run Defense Stop%:
Kennard: 3.8%
Pearce: 10.3%

Pearce was right there on so many and just missed. He was still awesome though.

 

[volinbama256]

USCe's Kyle Kennard won the Bronco Nagurski award.

Sacks per Rush:
Kennard: 3.2%
Pearce: 3.4%

Pressure Rate:
Kennard: 11.5%
Pearce: 22.3%

1-on-1 Win Rate:
Kennard: 12.7%
Pearce: 23.0%

Run Defense Stop%:
Kennard: 3.8%
Pearce: 10.3%

This is hilarious. And sad at the same time... the award snubs are getting ridiculously obvious TN has a black mark or asterisk back our name.

 

[volinbama256]

Pearce was right there on so many and just missed. He was still awesome though.

hopefully the next 4 games are his best yet.

 

[Vols410]

Pearce was right there on so many and just missed. He was still awesome though.

Yup. Sacks are shiny (even though he still did better on a per-rush basis), but beating your man 1-on-1 and pressuring the QB is a better indicator of future performance / talent than sacks.

 

[SouthKnoxVOL]

USCe's Kyle Kennard won the Bronco Nagurski award.

Sacks per Rush:
Kennard: 3.2%
Pearce: 3.4%

Pressure Rate:
Kennard: 11.5%
Pearce: 22.3%

1-on-1 Win Rate:
Kennard: 12.7%
Pearce: 23.0%

Run Defense Stop%:
Kennard: 3.8%
Pearce: 10.3%

My model thinks Pearce is worth 2.5 points per game over Kennard. Best EDGE in the country and #11 over the last 10 years.

Another thing is that Pearce barely played in 3 of our non conference games.

 

[knoxvol52]

Only thing I know is James Pearce would look great on opposite side of DL in Dallas with Micah Parsons...

 

[Visidog]

Eittiene put his name in and played in the SEC champ game
It's up to the schools.

Although he's going to the draft, it just opened up a roster spot for UGA.

The Etienne thing was fake news. He’s almost certainly going to the NFL and not transferring.

Players in the portal can play or stay with the team but few do.

 

[#Vol4Life1991]

Only thing I know is James Pearce would look great on opposite side of DL in Dallas with Micah Parsons...

Lol he aint going to that trash organization

 

[knoxvol52]

Lol he aint going to that trash organization

Yes maybe go to a classy one like the Titans or maybe the Giants so he can be miserable like Hyatt.

 

[pierce60]

SIAP….looks familiar

 

[csprig9]

SIAP….looks familiar

HahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahHaah

Dorkwitz isn’t jumping in guys arms after hearing this news

 

[Jackcrevol]

Only thing I know is James Pearce would look great on opposite side of DL in Dallas with Micah Parsons...

Was reading that Titans have evaluated Pearce, but like an Iowa Defensive end, last name Witconeuaiwoski. From a small town at intersection of Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. 6'5" 275 lbs, 5.7 40, can lift forty seven cars. They see him as a pass rusher, as today's modern QB is a statue of liberty.

 

[engineerVOL]

@frank autocorrected it

 

[DD4ME]

Is it too early for me to start complaining about our overly passive portal strategy?

I’ll never get used to the new recruiting calendar.

Yeah too early. This is like cooking styles. Heupel seasons his food before it hits the pot. We only supplement seasoning to taste at the end. Other coaches like Deion dump all the seasoning after they boil it in plain water. I can tell you all the later groups like Ole Miss, Miami, and Colorado are not in the playoffs.

Let Heup cook brother.

 

[Jackcrevol]

SIAP….looks familiar

No...


Way....


Possibruh!!

 

[Jackcrevol]

On Nwaneri news, and

 

[Enki_Amenra]

I need a picture of a Power T I can superimpose onto that video of bluff mountain that looks natural. Make it look like their is a Power T in the clouds

 

[Orange.]

Harry Galbreath looks 47 when he played at UT

This is good. Majors, Fulmer pay tribute to Harry Galbreath

 

[dmwvol12]

PSA: Nerd stuff incoming.

Over the last 10 years in the SEC, only half of eventual starting OL get their first starter minutes before their RS-JR or SR year. 9% break in as FR, 24% as SO/RS-FR, 17% as JR/RS-SO, and 26% as SR/RS-JR, and 24% don't start until they're RS-SRs. The trend is pretty consistent across the FBS, and the numbers hold up for the likes of Bama / Georgia / etc. as well.

If we consider 2022 Heupel / Ellarbee's first shot at real recruiting class, those guys wouldn't hit that RS-JR / SR benchmark until next year.

2022 / JR (Expect to contribute in 2025):
Addison Nichols: Starter at Arkansas (2024)
Brian Grant: TBD (37 snaps this year)
Masai Reddick: TBD (0 snaps)
Maurice Clipper: Gone

2023 / SO (Expect to contribute in 2026):
Sham Umarov: TBD (66 snaps)
Ayden Bussell: TBD (62 snaps)
Trevor Duncan: TBD (8 snaps)
Vysen Lang: Gone (44 snaps)

2024 / FR (Expect to contribute in 2027):
Jesse Perry: TBD (72 snaps)
Max Anderson: TBD (47 snaps)
William Satterwhite: TBD (45 snaps)
Bennett Warren: TBD (40 snaps)
Gage Ginther: TBD (19 snaps)
Jeremias Heard: TBD (8 snaps)

I also want to note, we had 4/6 (66%) of our freshman OL and 3/4 (75%) of our sophomores get 40+ snaps. The SEC averages for those years are 37% and 47% respectively.

All this to say, yes - we haven't had Ellarbee recruits break into the starting lineup. That said, given the way OL progress in the SEC, you wouldn't really expect to see that happen until next year. Granted, the 2022 crop doesn't look especially close, but both the 2023 and 2024 groups are ahead of schedule in terms of snap counts, and the 2024 group in particular looks like one of the best freshmen groups in the country.

Great data. Thanks for taking the time to compile and post. Big difference in strength between an 18 year old and a 20-22 year old. OL is also one of the most difficult positions to learn as well.

 

[Jackcrevol]

I need a picture of a Power T I can superimpose onto that video of bluff mountain that looks natural. Make it look like their is a Power T in the clouds

My Grandad used to hold his hand up to us Grandkid's heads and ask 'you feelin' alright?'

Well...