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Connelly's college football 'ifs' list: How contenders can come together
Welcome to the 2024 college football season, where the playoff is bigger, the (remaining) power conferences are, too, Nick Saban is working for ESPN and just about everybody needs new receivers (and maybe defensive backs and defensive linemen, as well).
After a couple of years of epic change off the field, we'll see some of the fruits of that change on the field this fall, but the early list of national title favorites looks awfully familiar. Georgia leads the way, according to both
the metrics and
ESPN BET, with Ohio State, Oregon, and last year's semifinalists -- Texas and Alabama -- among the Dawgs' chief competitors. What stands in the way of these teams and the ultimate prize? What questions will they need to answer between now and January?
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national champion over the past 23 seasons has begun the season with title odds worse than +5000. Could the College Football Playoff's expansion to 12 teams alter that trend? Perhaps. But while upsets could bust brackets, the best teams are still the most likely to win three to four games and take the title. So let's stick with the +5000 barrier: Here are the 16 teams that meet those standards per ESPN BET. They are sorted by the number of "ifs" that need to break their way to make them champs. (As always, we're not going to worry about obstacles like injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.)
If ... Nico Iamaleava is ready. In some ways, Tennessee's 35-0 Citrus Bowl blowout of Iowa felt like a statement of intent. A fierce Volunteers pass rush led in part by
James Pearce Jr. wouldn't let Iowa breathe, and in his first career start, five-star freshman QB
Nico Iamaleava completed a solid 63% of his passes and executed the red zone offense with perfection.
Iamaleava also took six sacks and averaged a ho-hum 12.6 yards per completion. He still looked like a true freshman at times. The Vols are an intriguing CFP candidate, but only if he's ready to turn upside and potential into production from the very start of the season.
Nico Iamaleava should be an upgrade at QB for Tennessee if he lives up to his recruiting ranking. Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire
If ... the big pass plays return. Cannon-armed Joe Milton III averaged only 12.3 yards per completion last season as the big plays we've come to expect from a Josh Heupel offense subsided dramatically. Iamaleava needs to do a better job than Milton in keeping his eyes downfield, and among slot man
Squirrel White, senior
Bru McCoy, Tulane transfer
Chris Brazzell II and other youngsters, his receivers need to take better advantage of their opportunities.
If ... red zone issues subside. Red zone execution becomes more important when you aren't making enough big plays, and Tennessee ranked a dreadful 104th in red zone touchdown rate. Iamaleava's legs could come in handy here, but one way or another, improvement is a must.
If ... a new (and thin?) secondary holds up. Tennessee's defense was excellent against the run and, when the QB had time to throw, rather mediocre against the pass. Pearce & Co. should be strong up front again, but last year's top six DBs are all gone, and backup nickel
Will Brooks might be the only senior in the rotation. Can the Vols make a title run with a young and rebuilding secondary?