Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[RiotVol]

Take a look at the relationship between winning and recruiting classes.

It explains about 60-70% of the variation depending on what data sources you use. However, you have to assume that recruit rankings and on the field success are independent variables. They aren’t, which is why Harrison Bailey isn’t a five star, but if Georgia offers a kid with a fast forty time he becomes an automatic four star.

After spending several years running numbers on this stuff, I think recruit rankings are f@&$ed. Who is evaluating the evaluators? Who has more skin in the game? Barton Simmons who needs clicks for revenue? Or Jeremy Pruitt who needs to win ball games?

I trust the dude who’s put dudes into the NFL, versus the ranking services who were exposed when they ranked a player that didn’t even exist, and are clearly on the take when going to one of their camps gets you a rankings boost.

 

[Weezer]

Beyond the obvious of not getting upset by ooc cupcakes, who are we going to step up and beat without a talent upgrade. Bama and UGA are not going anywhere despite what some of you seem to think. UF is getting better. Gotta have talent and development. You're not going to win the SEC on coached-up heart alone.

I don't think we're signing a class of untalented guys tho. Good coaching can overcome a lot, including a talent disparity. With the proper coaching, I think we can overcome anyone on our schedule.

 

[HankHill]

Development trumps talent at some point.

Eh. It can take you far and win you a lot of games which is all we can ask for at this point. But if you’re going to win SEC and get in the playoff you need a few donkeys.

 

[Sleegro]

Beyond the obvious of not getting upset by ooc cupcakes, who are we going to step up and beat without a talent upgrade. Bama and UGA are not going anywhere despite what some of you seem to think. UF is getting better. Gotta have talent and development. You're not going to win the SEC on coached-up heart alone.

Did South Carolina have more talent than Georgia? Did Kansas St have more talent than Oklahoma? Did we surrender when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[UTMVol76]

That is an absolute truth. They have wasted more talent than any other program in CFB history.

In arguably the 4th best recruiting state in the country with Tech as its only instate rival while California, Texas, and Florida are saturated with major D1 schools

 

[Buddy’s Bandit]

You know Chaney has to be excited about Bailey coming in next year......

we are going to be fine......then fantastic !

 

[Buddy’s Bandit]

Wife and I went to Vince Gill / Amy Grant Christmas concert in Nashville last night. If you have not done this before, I highly recommend it. It’s a great way to enjoy your Christmas Holiday .

By the way, V. Gill added a 4th verse to Go Rest High on That Mountain.....Powerful !!!

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

Development trumps talent at some point.

Sure. Once every four or five years, a good coach like Stoops can have a transcendent season at Kentucky and then it's back to square a season or two later. I'm thinking more about sustained championship contender-level success. There are some things that just can't be coached.

 

[Weezer]

It's not all about who has the most talented players. So much depends on who has a better game plan going into the game, who can make the better adjustments in game. And better talent doesn't mean better team. How well do they play together as a whole? A good team finds ways to play together and cover each other's flaws. It's great to have a team of 5*s, but if they don't play well together, if they aren't well coached, they'll only go so far. We've seen that from UGA.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Eh. It can take you far and win you a lot of games which is all we can ask for at this point. But if you’re going to win SEC and get in the playoff you need a few donkeys.

Again, there is no development going on at UGA, or scheming. 5 star OL and 5 star backs and could only muster 61 yards against LSU.
Bama has regressed.....they've got talent on offense, but that defense is not the Bama defense of years past. We got more production out of our defensive freshmen than they did.

 

[Bearwallow Bandit]

I think it’s only That underwhelming bc this staff has been branded as the best recruiting staff in the nation. So when you pair that with our results vs the good teams then i think it seems worse than it actually is.

There’s a chance ,albeit a slim one, this class could include an elite QB prospect so that helps. I do wish we could’ve pulled one big time WR in this class like a Mecole Hardman, Jerry Jeudy etc. i know that’s wishful thinking but we finally have the OL and hopefully the QB to let someone like that eat.

What do you think the chances are that Bailey comes in here and starts next year?

 

[Weezer]

Sure. Once every four or five years, a good coach like Stoops can have a transcendent season at Kentucky and then it's back to square a season or two later. I'm thinking more about sustained championship contender-level success. There are some things that just can't be coached.

And talent alone isn't enough to win championships.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Sure. Once every four or five years, a good coach like Stoops can have a transcendent season at Kentucky and then it's back to square a season or two later. I'm thinking more about sustained championship contender-level success. There are some things that just can't be coached.

So you're saying UTs staff is the same as UKs staff?

 

[engineerVOL]

For the first time in a long time, I’m not freaking out on recruiting for 2 main reasons: 1) the development of last years class as well as the emergence of upper classmen who we’ve left for dead. This staff can develop at a very high level IMO
2) the “hit” percentage off lasts years class. When you break down playing time and productivity, it was very impressive. These guys also have an eye for talent, dare say better than us.

I agree with all of you that we need higher classes, but I promise this: if we continue at this trajectory, those players will come here and that gap will be closed in no time flat. Also, FTR, I’m not impressed with what I see in Athens, I think we catch the leg humpers very quickly.

agree this staff can develop

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

It explains about 60-70% of the variation depending on what data sources you use. However, you have to assume that recruit rankings and on the field success are independent variables. They aren’t, which is why Harrison Bailey isn’t a five star, but if Georgia offers a kid with a fast forty time he becomes an automatic four star.

After spending several years running numbers on this stuff, I think recruit rankings are f@&$ed. Who is evaluating the evaluators? Who has more skin in the game? Barton Simmons who needs clicks for revenue? Or Jeremy Pruitt who needs to win ball games?

I trust the dude who’s put dudes into the NFL, versus the ranking services who were exposed when they ranked a player that didn’t even exist, and are clearly on the take when going to one of their camps gets you a rankings boost.

When you talk about putting guys in the NFL, it steers the conversation back to Pruitt's experience as an assistant/coordinator. He wasn't getting a whole lot of guys who needed coaching up at his prior gigs. So what you're really saying, even if you don't realize it, is that you trust Bama/UGA-level recruiting.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

When you talk about putting guys in the NFL, it steers the conversation back to Pruitt's experience as an assistant/coordinator. He wasn't getting a whole lot of guys who needed coaching up at his prior gigs. So what you're really saying, even if you don't realize it, is that you trust Bama/UGA-level recruiting.

No, that means that he was developing those guys. Do we know if those guys would be in the NFL without CJP?

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

I don't think we're signing a class of untalented guys tho. Good coaching can overcome a lot, including a talent disparity. With the proper coaching, I think we can overcome anyone on our schedule.

I think there's a limit. Well coached + talent is going to beat just well coached 99.9% of the time. I agree that there are some good players committed. I don't think this is a backsliding class.

 

[Vols4us]

i cant believe I read the last ten pages.

Thanks for doing so - now I won't have to...

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

No, that means that he was developing those guys. Do we know if those guys would be in the NFL without CJP?

Consider that many of those guys where the players that every elite program in the country wanted coming out of high school, the answer can only be yes.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

Did South Carolina have more talent than Georgia? Did Kansas St have more talent than Oklahoma? Did we surrender when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Did Ga State and BYU have more talent than the Vols. That's just a matter of taking care of business. Hopefully, we can do that going forward. Counting on talent laden teams like UGA, Bama, UF, LSU, Ok, etc. to lay an egg when we play them is not a plan, it's just a wishful hope...like buying a lottery ticket.

 

[SweetasSoda]

There are a few in this class I question. I would love for all of them to do well, but I'd be lying if I said I had confidence in all of them. I just don't feel right calling them out by name.

That is usually the case with every class signed. Very few ever have all players that will be productive. Point is we just don't know. Some that most would have put in the category of not producing from last year's class did well.

 

[bcmbvol]

Did South Carolina have more talent than Georgia? Did Kansas St have more talent than Oklahoma? Did we surrender when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Am I missing an inside joke?

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Consider that many of those guys where the players that every elite program in the country wanted coming out of high school, the answer can only be yes.

So you're saying every highly sought after recruit goes to the NFL?

 

[Weezer]

That is usually the case with every class signed. Very few ever have all players that will be productive. Point is we just don't know. Some that most would have put in the category of not producing from last year's class did well.

I understand, but it seemed the argument was about if we would have any busts this class. There are a few I question, even if I understand the reasons for taking them. But I don't like naming names because it just seems crass. I want all of these young men to succeed. Not only for us but for them. Overall, I think it's a good class. But given the names thrown about earlier in the season, I can't disagree with the underwhelming comment.

 

[RiotVol]

When you talk about putting guys in the NFL, it steers the conversation back to Pruitt's experience as an assistant/coordinator. He wasn't getting a whole lot of guys who needed coaching up at his prior gigs. So what you're really saying, even if you don't realize it, is that you trust Bama/UGA-level recruiting.

Sure. He knows what those guys looked like coming out of high school, which is why he recruited someone like Deandre Baker after seeing him one day at camp.

I’m also not disagreeing that higher ranked players have a better likelihood of being a great player. I’m saying that correlation is REALLY fuzzy. I trust Pruitt over Rivals to cut through that fuzz.