Bill Connelly on Sunday published the final version of his preseason SP+ model for the 2022 season and while it is behind a paywall there was enough reporting/discussion around that I was able to learn a few things about his projections. He tweaked his model based on a study of FCS scoring margins from last year as he thought there was some improved accuracy in that. A number of fans thought he may have engaged in overfitting the data and question whether or not that will turn out to be a wise move on his part.
He has us as having the 3rd best offense in the country this year behind only Ohio State and Alabama but he downgraded our defense from #43 to #58. Last year we gave up 29.1 points per game on the season vs giving up 30.1 points per game in 2020 so the appearance is we actually improved overall on defense last year. In 2020 we played 10 power 5 games and no cupcakes so if we look at our defense for last year against only the 10 power 5 teams we played in 2021 we gave up 35.8 points per game, which seems more reflective of a team that had suffered a lot of attrition and was breaking in a new coordinator.
Overall Connelly has us as the 10th “best” team in the nation starting out for 2022.
In 2021 we played 5 of the top 10 QBs in the country according to ESPN’s QBR, (Young #2, Bennett #3, O’Connell #5, Pickett #9, and Corral #10). We lost to all of them. We beat the 18th ranked QB (Levis) and lost to the 39th ranked QB (Jones). Those 7 QBs accounted for 19 of the 23 passing TDs we gave up last year; the other 6 teams managed only 4 passing TDs total against us.
We gave up 7 of our 24 rushing TDs allowed to QBs last year, 6 of those were to the top 20 QBs we faced.
Last year we were the 2nd most improved team in the country in offensive scoring, improving by 17.8 points per game over 2020. We were the 76th most improved defense from a scoring perspective at -1.0 points per game vs 2020.
This is a table showing the improvement/regression of the teams on our schedule last year. Obviously, Alabama was in a “rebuilding” year or Saban was making excuses. lol
I think our defense could surprise this year owing to a number of things I’ve written about previously. Most importantly we have more depth. I think we should have a much faster pass rush which will go a long ways to solving our pass defense issues. Time is of the essence for a pass rush, less than 2.5 seconds to be precise. Offensive players are limited in how far they can run in 2.5 seconds to less than 20 yards. (Of note, in 7v7 football if the QB holds the ball for more than 4.0 seconds it’s an automatic sack. The clock starts on the snap.) If we only have to defend 20 yards deep it’s a different world than if we have to defense much greater depths. That applies to every team at every level of football. I think we’ve adjusted our scheme and playcalling on that side of the ball for this year to put our guys in a better position to be successful. jmo.
I think we have 3 really good defensive coaches, Garner, Ekeler, and Martinez. I think we have a smart head coach whose stated objective is to win more football games. I think these men will likely have a lot of influence on our defensive performance this year. jmo.
In studying our opponents this year I’ve projected we will score 46.8 points per game on offense this season (+7.5 points per game improvement over last year), which would have been best in the nation in 2021. I’ve also projected we will give up 19.8 points per game on defense this year (an improvement of -9.3 points per game), which would have been the 16th best scoring defense in the nation last year.
There is no team on our schedule this year that has more returning production than we do. There are only 4 teams with more on-paper talent. I don’t think there is any team on our schedule with more experience than we have. There will undoubtedly be teams on our schedule which will improve from last year but there are also a number of teams that will almost certainly regress this year. Given our talent, returning production, experience, and coaching continuity, I think we should continue to improve this year and should stay ahead of most of the other teams on our schedule that could also improve. jmo.
This should at least be the best performing football team we’ve fielded since 2015. jmo.