Tennessee Offense vs Alabama Defense
Much has been said about a strength on strength matchup this weekend looked at some stats between UT offense vs the Bama defense.
- Bama D is good but does not create many turnovers, in fact one of the worst in the nation with 3 all year, ranking 128 out of 130. Our offense is top quartile with only losing 5 all year.
Prediction: Don't expect Bama to get any TO's this game.
- What Bama does well is get off the field, forcing almost punts and 4th down stops every 3 out of 4 drives, giving their opponents 1 every 4 chances a game to score, one of the best around. What we do very well? We score 3 out of 4 offensive drives and went bonkers vs UF and LSU scoring on 9 out of every 10 drives. Guess what? One of the best in the nation.
Prediction: This is truly strength on strength and I think with home cooking we score 6 of 10 drives.
- Bama scoring D is an entirely different ballgame who allow only 1 pt/drive, best in the nation. They are elite at home (0.6pts/drive) but meh on the road (1.88 pt/drive).
- UT scores 4.03 points every possession, 2nd best in the nation. We averaged 3.3 points/ drive against the better defenses we faced Pitt, UF and LSU (who allow an average of 1.8 pts/drive), who happen to look like Bama's D on the road. That 3.3 pt/drive average was also obtained even after turning off the afterburners in Q4.
Prediction: Another strength on strength, i think we get em for 3 points per drive
A normal game runs about 12 drives per game for each team, with the number going down for blowouts (longer drives, expending clock), and going up in tight low scoring contests (quick outs).
Prediction: Expect a war of attrition and about 13 drives per game. If we hit em for 3 per drive, that's UT scoring 39!
Is that enough to take them down? Will share some thoughts on Bama O vs UT D next and some early numbers indicate we're in better shape than we look, BY or not!