Which teams might start out 7-1 or 8-0 but still be written off based on the “eye test?” What I mean by that is, which teams might find themselves sneaking into the top 10 by midseason, in large part due to lighter early schedules rather than truly elite performance? To rephrase more bluntly: Which teams should we put on “fraud watch?” — Logan T.
Ole Miss: The
Rebels are working with an easy nonconference slate. If they can knock off
Kentucky in their SEC opener, they’ll have a shot to get to 7-1 or 8-0 heading into their road trip to
Texas A&M at the end of October.
Tennessee: I can talk myself into Tennessee pulling off a nice early run as well. The Vols will have to win on the road at Pitt early on and they’re opening SEC play with
Florida and
LSU, but it’s not out of the question they could get to 6-1 before a defining back-to-back against Kentucky and
Georgia.
Purdue: If it can find a way to pull off the upset of
Penn State at home in its season opener, a 7-0 or 6-1 start seems possible before it’s time to play
Wisconsin and
Iowa.
Kansas State: K-State looks like the
dark horse contender in the Big 12 race, in part because of its schedule. The Wildcats host
Missouri in Week 2 and open Big 12 play at Oklahoma, so we’ll quickly find out if they’re legitimate. But they could get to 6-1 before home games against
Oklahoma State and Texas.
UCLA: The Bruins also have an easy nonconference schedule. They should be 5-0 when it’s time to play
Utah and
Oregon.
Nebraska: The Huskers have a remarkably wide range of possible outcomes this year. They could win eight. They could lose eight. Who knows? But if you want to talk extreme best-case scenario, a 7-1 start before the schedule gets tougher in November is not inconceivable.
Appalachian State: What a fun nonconference schedule for the Mountaineers this year. They’re opening the season with a home game against
North Carolina followed by a road trip to Texas A&M. If they can split those games, they should be able to roll to a 7-1 start.
Houston: The
Cougars were one of the great “fraud watch” squads of 2021, going 11-1 against a relatively easy schedule but never rising any higher than No. 20 in the College Football Playoff rankings. But they showed up in their toughest games and closed the season with a bowl win over
Auburn. Another hot start in 2022 looks likely. Once again, they don’t face
Cincinnati or
UCF in the regular season. And once again, it’s probably Texas Tech that stands in their way of an 8-0 start.
— Max Olson