I also think Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre etc. etc. have shown that the bulk of great QB play happens after 25 in the NFL. If they can draft him and get 3-5 good years before the big money 2nd contract hits most NFL teams will do it in a heartbeat.
Long post incoming:
Agreed on after 25 part and the fact that I wouldn't hesitate to draft him if I was a GM in the 1st round, but it’s also fair to say that the bulk of QBs start their downward slope after let’s say early 30s. Very few QBs, regardless of age, are drafted in the 1st round and into a good situation for them. There is a learning curve in the NFL that
most QBs struggle with a bit in year 1. Usually it’s year 2 or 3 until you really start to see it.
So let’s say it takes one year for Hooker to get going and year 2 he’s a good to great NFL QB. He’d be 26ish at that point.
Now look at how many starting QBs in the NFL right now are over 30. There are 12. One is a straight up outlier and I’m not even sure is human so let’s throw him out (Tom Brady). Two are only starting because of injuries or suspensions (Brissett and Garoppolo). Two are former starters but really are only starting because the team didn’t have better options but have actually played well this year (Geno Smith and Carson Wentz). So right now if you look there about 7 LEGIT starting QBs over 30 that have been starting QBs most of their career and aren’t superhuman (Tom Brady). Those 7 are: Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford.
You could argue that half of that list is already starting to show they are on a slippery slope to being retired.
So that’s just age 30. If you then bump it to say 33, then that list drops 6 QBs (not counting Brady) left that are current starters and have been their entire career essentially.. and over half that list will not be playing in 2-3 years time.
So even being generous and saying Hendon would play til he’s 33 at a high, starting QB level in the NFL that would be 8 seasons. 1-3 of those seasons
could still be learning years unless he hits the ground running, which is possible. If he doesn’t hit the ground running and it takes say 2 years. That’s 6 seasons left until he
maybe starts to show a downward trend due to age. You’d be making the 2nd contract decision on a 29-30 years old QB. Do you give max money for a 5 year deal where you may only get 2-4 years of elite play? Probably. Great QBs don’t grow on trees, but it’s a tough decision.
This is what the scouts are looking at and why some are hesitant to draft an older QB in the 1st round.
My take: I think if he goes in the 1st round it will be later in the round to an established team that is really just a QB or a couple pieces away from making playoff runs. I WOULD draft him in the 1st round if I was a QB needy team no matter what, but I think GMs will be a bit scared. I hope they take the gamble.