Recruiting Forum: Football Talk XI

#11,577
#11,577
ChattaTNVol said:
As you note there are a number of sources for data; I mostly use cfbstats.com - College Football Statistics and UTSPORTS.COM - University of Tennessee Athletics - Football. There is as you note the NCAA site (which I think is unnecessarily cumbersome and ESPN has some somewhat interesting stats and analysis).

Sometimes stats can be misused or leave the wrong impression. For example, our passing defense was #7 in the conference last year in yards/game. We were #4 in completion percentage against us. We were #3 in total yards given up to the pass for the season. Of course we played fewer games than some but we were also #3 in fewest pass attempts against us. Where we sucked on pass defense in comparison was we fell to #9 in yards per attempt. Teams didn't often pass on us but when they did they apparently picked on our safeties.

Year #Gms Comp/ATT % Yds YPA YPG
2007 14 291-491 59.3% 3341 6.8 238.6
2008 12 186-332 56.0% 1925 5.8 160.4
2009 13 219-392 55.9% 2201 5.6 169.3
2010 13 252-489 57.4% 2985 6.8 229.6
2011 12 178-307 58.0% 2134 7.0 177.8
2012 12 272-446 61.0% 3390 7.6 282.5
2013 12 200-354 56.5% 2533 7.2 211.1

I would argue that the improvement in our secondary from '12 to '13 was largely due to the addition of Sutton, a freshman. I'm looking forward to the arrival of more freshmen defensive backs this summer.
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Good stuff. Agree on Sutton and on the safeties. If they get just one safety that can give them some meaningful production and speed out of the talent they recruited, it will help immensely. Add to the d-back argument that Willie Martinez knows what he is doing as a secondary coach. Add to it rek's point about the offense being more effective helps the D from being gassed.
 
#11,578
#11,578
rekinhavoc said:
Offense did not help . Too many three and outs. Those guys had to be gassed and discouraged at times.

I also expect improvement. Offense is going to take a giant leap forward imo. Team speed is improving. Maggitt and Vereen are going to be disruptive. Sutton is going to get some help. JRM is going to be on the field .

The glass is definitely half full and rising.
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More to your point about 3 and outs. The statistician that is responsible for the ESPN 4-8 brouhaha has a couple of public websites where his analysis is shared freely. One of the stats he monitors is first down rate, meaning what percentage of all offensive drives earned at least one first down or touchdown. We were at 60% in 2013 which was good enough to be ranked #105 nationally among FBS schools. (Note: He throws out all stats against FCS competition).

Overall offensive efficiency was at #97 in the nation. Defensive efficiency was at #64 among all FBS teams. Overall Team was #74 which compares with a 2012 mark of #61, a 2011 mark of #57, 2010 #59, 2009 #38, 2008 #58, and 2007 #18.

Any trend follower that just used stats would take his bet because across all 128 teams following his system you'll be a winner but his system does not predict changes in the trend. A trend by definition is looking backwards; the future can be different but isn't most of the time. That's the reason his analysis works much more often than not. The future is charted along a different path only when we steer accordingly. Butch has got the wheel. It's an incredibly steep uphill climb and we're trailing more empty bandwagons this time. Don't worry. They'll be full by the time we get to the top. :)

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2013

BCF Toys - FEI Drive Efficiency Ratings
 
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#11,580
#11,580
ChattaTNVol said:
More to your point about 3 and outs. The statistician that is responsible for the ESPN 4-8 brouhaha has a couple of public websites where his analysis is shared freely. One of the stats he monitors is first down rate, meaning what percentage of all offensive drives earned at least one first down or touchdown. We were at 60% in 2013 which was good enough to be ranked #105 nationally among FBS schools. (Note: He throws out all stats against FCS competition).

Overall offensive efficiency was at #97 in the nation. Defensive efficiency was at #64 among all FBS teams. Overall Team was #74 which compares with a 2012 mark of #61, a 2011 mark of #57, 2010 #59, 2009 #38, 2008 #58, and 2007 #18.

Any trend follower that just used stats would take his bet because across all 128 teams following his system you'll be a winner but his system does not predict changes in the trend. A trend by definition is looking backwards; the future can be different but isn't most of the time. That's the reason his analysis works much more often than not. The future is charted along a different path only when we steer accordingly. Butch has got the wheel. It's an incredibly steep uphill climb and we're trailing more empty bandwagons this time. Don't worry. They'll be full by the time we get to the top. :)

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2013

BCF Toys - FEI Drive Efficiency Ratings
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:hi: :salute:

Nailed it. Most programs do not have radical transformations - just tweaks or slightly better talent that lead to moderate improvement or vice versa. So trending can many times predict accurately. That's not what is happening with Butch, it's major changes in every aspect of the program. It will be hard to predict exactly when it will turn the right direction strongly enough to make a major impact on the record, but it has already turned. Second year in the system with his first class of recruits plus advance training with the EE's of his second class. Followed by another large influx of talent in the fall. Then followed by another what appears to be another highly talented class. Bandwagon fans will be jumping on in droves by the time that class of '15 has a year of experience in the system. Momentum will be our friend.
 
#11,581
#11,581
May the fourth be with you, VN!

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#11,583
#11,583
Vols4us said:
:hi: :salute:

Nailed it. Most programs do not have radical transformations - just tweaks or slightly better talent that lead to moderate improvement or vice versa. So trending can many times predict accurately. That's not what is happening with Butch, it's major changes in every aspect of the program. It will be hard to predict exactly when it will turn the right direction strongly enough to make a major impact on the record, but it has already turned. Second year in the system with his first class of recruits plus advance training with the EE's of his second class. Followed by another large influx of talent in the fall. Then followed by another what appears to be another highly talented class. Bandwagon fans will be jumping on in droves by the time that class of '15 has a year of experience in the system. Momentum will be our friend.
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The data validates your point. Stats and trend analysis could not predict Ole Miss going from #98 in 2011 to #42 in 2012 and then to #27 in 2013. He uses a 5 year average for all the stats with heavier weighting to the most recent. His model, though highly accurate overall, predicted Arkansas State to beat Auburn last year. It also predicted Ole Miss to beat Auburn, and Texas A&M and Alabama and Missouri. None of those teams beat Auburn last year so his model was wrong....but for the entire population of 128 teams it was mostly right. That's why ESPN pays him. His model can't predict the Hugh Freezes, Gus Malzahns, or Butch Jones effects. It also doesn't predict changes in recruiting. Those are fundamental changes. His model is a technical model. Fundamentals determine the future. We are a fundamentally different team this year hence his model will be wildly wrong trying to predict our performance this season but he'll be mostly right about most other teams. I think the fundamentals suggest 8+ wins for us this year. The technicals say I'm delusional. :)
 
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#11,585
#11,585
ChattaTNVol said:
The data validates your point. Stats and trend analysis could not predict Ole Miss going from #98 in 2011 to #42 in 2012 and then to #27 in 2013. He uses a 5 year average for all the stats with heavier weighting to the most recent. His model, though highly accurate overall, predicted Arkansas State to beat Auburn last year. It also predicted Ole Miss to beat Auburn, and Texas A&M and Alabama and Missouri. None of those teams beat Auburn last year so his model was wrong....but for the entire population of 128 teams it was mostly right. That's why ESPN pays him. His model can't predict the Hugh Freezes, Gus Malzahns, or Butch Jones effects. It also doesn't predict changes in recruiting. Those are fundamental changes. His model is a technical model. Fundamentals determine the future. We are a fundamentally different team this year hence his model will be wildly wrong trying to predict our performance this season but he'll be mostly right about most other teams. I think the fundamentals suggest 8+ wins for us this year. The technicals say I'm delusional. :)
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Great post - 100% agree. We are both delusional - I have been saying 7-5 with a bowl win. That makes 8. :)

They had to think about their assignments last season - totally new system again. On D some have gone from Wilcox to Sal to Jancek. The second year in the Jancek system should be more rote memory. Sutton, Randolph, AJ, J-Williams, McNeil, Vereen as well as even guys like Saulsberry, O'Brien, JRM, etc, that were in back-up roles. Even Maggitt probably got enough practice to just line up and go.
 
#11,598
#11,598
I watched the first few minutes of Sports Source today and that idiot Pennington seemed to be putting up an argument that the loss of players by selected teams in the past proves that because Tennessee lost so many off the O-Line and D-Line that they will be very bad this year. He selectively picked teams that did poorly after larger player losses (through graduation, etc.). I got sick of listening to his garbage and turned it off but he seemed to be saying that Tennessee would end up at 2-10 or 1-11 because all the good players were gone and there was no one to replace them but freshmen and they wouldn't be able to contribute. He apparently thinks Chattanooga and maybe Arky State are the only teams we stand a chance of winning. He is getting worse every week in his efforts to try to upset the Tennessee fan base. Wish he would go back to Ohio and snuggle with Urbie.
 
#11,600
#11,600
OldVol49vfl said:
I watched the first few minutes of Sports Source today and that idiot Pennington seemed to be putting up an argument that the loss of players by selected teams in the past proves that because Tennessee lost so many off the O-Line and D-Line that they will be very bad this year. He selectively picked teams that did poorly after larger player losses (through graduation, etc.). I got sick of listening to his garbage and turned it off but he seemed to be saying that Tennessee would end up at 2-10 or 1-11 because all the good players were gone and there was no one to replace them but freshmen and they wouldn't be able to contribute. He apparently thinks Chattanooga and maybe Arky State are the only teams we stand a chance of winning. He is getting worse every week in his efforts to try to upset the Tennessee fan base. Wish he would go back to Ohio and snuggle with Urbie.
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There is a possibility that it could be a rough year, but I think not.

Anyone who thinks we will EVER win just 1 or 2 games needs their heads examined, then probably, removed
 
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