Recruiting Forum: UNofficial Utath State Pre-Game Thread

#152
#152
I posted this in another thread. I still need to watch the full replay of USC and BYU against Utah State.

I am in the process of watching the Utah - Utah State play by play game from last year. This was the first game of the year for both teams and one of the only games where Utah State played a quality opponent before Keeton was injured (The other being USC).

Utah finished the season at 5-7 in the Pac-12, but had a big win over Stanford. Throughout the game vs. Utah State they were able to move the ball through the air, but their playcalling was very vanilla. #8 wreaked havoc in the backfield for them all game. A couple of thoughts as it relates to our game vs. Utah State:

- Chuckie Keeton has one of the quickest releases I have ever seen. He has a great completion percentage primarily because of short and intermediate routes. He has the arm strength for deep routes, but his passes hang in the air for a long time. I still think we will be lucky to just get one interception vs. him all game.

- #9 is their best wide receiver, and he lines up in the slot. I don't know his listed height, but he looks to be about as big as Devrin Young.

- Their offensive line is a liability, especially at tackle. Keeton was pressured and sacked throughout the game, and they lose most of their offensive line going into 2014. I think this is one of our biggest advantages going into the game. I look for Maggitt and Vereen to cause some damage on the ends.

- With that being said, we need to be prepared for their draw game. I am worried in third and medium our ends will be out wide and give up contain in the middle. With our lack of talent at DT this is something to look for.

- Utah State defense: The strength is in the front seven. Fackrell is good, but not as good as I thought based on the hype. I would compare him to an AJ Johnson, lots of tackles but not an enforcer.

- Their secondary was not good in this game, and they lose a lot of their production there. If we cannot move the ball in the air on this team we are looking at a 5 win season max. On one play, Utah's TE caught a pass at the 20 and outran their secondary to score. Their defense is stingy inside the 10, and i think a Marquez North/Jason Croom fade will be very beneficial here. I look for a big game from Wolf and Pearson.

- Their kicker has a good leg and he will be playing against us. He consistently kicks deep on kickoffs and is very accurate. He did shank an extra point, but I looked at his stats and this was an anomaly.

- Overall, I expect TN to win by 10-14 points. I don't think Keeton will be back to 100%, but even with that said his play alone will keep this game too close for comfort going into the 4th quarter. Bajakan needs to open up the offense in this game, and whoever is at RB needs to be ready to step up in pass protection as their defense likes to overload and blitz from the opposite side the RB lines up on. I look for them to come after our tackles early, and if Worley cannot take advantage to continue throughout the game.

Final Prediction: Vols 31 Utah State 20
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#155
#155
I looked around the interwebs for the spread on this game. It was much lower than I thought and fairly consistent across the board. As we already knew, this team isn't a pushover...

UT - Utah State spread.png
 
#156
#156
Ok, this won't help the mood. Here's an article from Brian Fremeau on ESPN Insider about the SEC teams most likely to lose this weekend. UT is number 1 on this list:

Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers

53.6 percent chance the Vols lose

Utah State is one of only eight teams that have ranked among the top 15 in our opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency measure each of the last two seasons. Tennessee lost all six games it played against defenses ranked that highly in the same span. While this is a new year and the Volunteers are a program projected to take steps forward in 2014, this matchup has the most upset potential because the Aggies can be so tough to move the ball against, much less score on. Utah State allowed only 2.8 yards per rush last season (No. 2 in FBS) and allowed only 3.8 points per drive that crossed the Aggies' 30-yard line (also No. 2). Meanwhile, Tennessee ranked No. 117 in producing methodical drives (possessions of 10 plays or more).
Click to expand...

This is the tag line under a picture of Worley:

Can one of the youngest offenses in the SEC (led by QB Justin Worley) withstand Utah State's dominant defense?
Click to expand...

Flame away but don't shoot the messenger...
 
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#157
#157
I think we might struggle a little to run, but I would not call their defense dominant. I am concerned about the game, but I am a nervous Nellie before every game. I think we win and I think we pull away late.
 
#158
#158
Butch has to win games like this. He just has to. We have more talent and it's a home game. There's no reason we shouldn't pound this team into oblivion.

But I'm damn nervous about our youth and performance last season. I'm ready for this game to be over and UT win 40-17.
 
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#159
#159
Fortunately for the Vols, this isn't the same USU defense of the past two years. Also, the UT offense shouldn't have to be as methodical this year because the playmakers now on that side of the ball. A substantial jump in big plays should mean quicker drives and less opportunity for mistakes and drive killers.

I also think with so much player turnover on both sides it's hard to predict an outcome based off of last year's stats. I know that's all we can go off of, but we really won't know until the actual game. JMO.
 
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#160
#160
Gilbert said:
Fortunately for the Vols, this isn't the same USU defense of the past two years. Also, the UT offense shouldn't have to be as methodical this year because the playmakers now on that side of the ball. A substantial jump in big plays should mean quicker drives and less opportunity for mistakes and drive killers.

I also think with so much player turnover on both sides it's hard to predict an outcome based off of last year's stats. I know that's all we can go off of, but we really won't know until the actual game. JMO.
Click to expand...

Ya, I don't get how alleged journalists don't even acknowledge that there are only 7 starters coming back from the team they're so enamored with.
 
#161
#161
"Opponent Adjusted Efficiency" = Numbers crunching run amok. I'm not trying to belittle them, but size and speed of USU is not the same as "the last 6 defenses we've played". They're trying to compare them to Bama.
 
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#162
#162
American_PitVol said:
Screens...
Click to expand...

shots.gif
 
#163
#163
We torch these guys, I don't care what their defense ranked last year. Who on their side is stopping Hurd for four quarters and holding our receiving corps in check? Do they have the DL depth to face up tempo for four quarters on the road, and can they communicate well in front of 100,000+ opposing fans?

I don't see this being close. CBJ is not looking past them and not letting our team look past them and that's all that matters.
 
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