Resume comparison

#51
#51
OrangeBalls said:
From Lunardi:

A fairly uncomplicated bubble picture was completely blown apart on Saturday, especially in the SEC. Pay close attention to the following sentence and you'll have a better understanding of why Tennessee sits in the final at-large spot: Not all conference schedules are created equal, and the Vols (No. 69) are a good bit ahead of league brethren Alabama (No. 123), Kentucky (No. 103), Ole Miss (No. 121) and Arkansas (No. 93) in that category.
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There you go VolWoman :)
 
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#52
#52
OrangeBalls said:
From Lunardi:

A fairly uncomplicated bubble picture was completely blown apart on Saturday, especially in the SEC. Pay close attention to the following sentence and you'll have a better understanding of why Tennessee sits in the final at-large spot: Not all conference schedules are created equal, and the Vols (No. 69) are a good bit ahead of league brethren Alabama (No. 123), Kentucky (No. 103), Ole Miss (No. 121) and Arkansas (No. 93) in that category.
Click to expand...

This can't be true. We suck and the season is over.
 
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#53
#53
We need to win out and win 1 in the tourney to feel confident about a spot. Our resume will be better than every bubble team, except maybe one other team, when the committee starts looking as long as we win out.
 
#54
#54
Here's this week's bubble team schedule, for your convenience. Teams in CAPS are the bubble teams we are concerned with.

If someone with more Karma than I wanted to repost this as it's own sticky, that might be viewed as helpful...but not necessary. Be sure to cheer for the team NOT in CAPS (of course, excepting where two face off against one another, where I have underlined the one I think we need to cheer for).


Monday, March 4:

BAYLOR @ Texas, 9PM


Tuesday, March 5:

ALABAMA @ OLE MISS, 9pm
SO MISS @ Marshall, 7pm
ARKANSAS @ Missouri, 7pm


Wednesday, March 6

Okla St @ IOWA STATE, 7pm
TEMPLE @ Fordham, 7pm
VILLANOVA @ Georgetown, 7pm
TENNESSEE @ Auburn, 9pm
No Carolina @ MARYLAND, 7pm


Thursday, March 7

KENTUCKY @ Georgia, 7pm
VIRGINIA @ Florida St, 7pm


Saturday, March 9

Florida @ KENTUCKY, 12pm***
IOWA STATE @ West Va, 130pm
Texas A&M @ Arkansas, 2pm
ARIZONA STATE @ Arizona, 430pm
Missouri @ TENNESSEE, 4pm
Georgia @ ALABAMA, 4pm
Kansas @ BAYLOR, 6pm***
Central Fla @ SO MISS, 8pm


Sunday, March 10

Va Commonwealth @ TEMPLE, 12pm
MARYLAND @ VIRGINIA, 6pm


*** in these games, good God please let the road favorite win***
 
#55
#55
Volstylexx said:
No way VA should get in with 7 bad losses and those SOS
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Too many negatives including a 300+ loss. They'll be like we were last season. The committee would love to put them in but will have to pass.
 
#56
#56
PagingDrVol said:
Here's this week's bubble team schedule, for your convenience. Teams in CAPS are the bubble teams we are concerned with.

If someone with more Karma than I wanted to repost this as it's own sticky, that might be viewed as helpful...but not necessary. Be sure to cheer for the team NOT in CAPS (of course, excepting where two face off against one another, where I have underlined the one I think we need to cheer for).


Monday, March 4:

BAYLOR @ Texas, 9PM


Tuesday, March 5:

ALABAMA @ OLE MISS, 9pm
SO MISS @ Marshall, 7pm
ARKANSAS @ Missouri, 7pm


Wednesday, March 6

Okla St @ IOWA STATE, 7pm
TEMPLE @ Fordham, 7pm
VILLANOVA @ Georgetown, 7pm
TENNESSEE @ Auburn, 9pm
No Carolina @ MARYLAND, 7pm


Thursday, March 7

KENTUCKY @ Georgia, 7pm
VIRGINIA @ Florida St, 7pm


Saturday, March 9

Florida @ KENTUCKY, 12pm***
IOWA STATE @ West Va, 130pm
Texas A&M @ Arkansas, 2pm
ARIZONA STATE @ Arizona, 430pm
Missouri @ TENNESSEE, 4pm
Georgia @ ALABAMA, 4pm
Kansas @ BAYLOR, 6pm***
Central Fla @ SO MISS, 8pm


Sunday, March 10

Va Commonwealth @ TEMPLE, 12pm
MARYLAND @ VIRGINIA, 6pm


*** in these games, good God please let the road favorite win***
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Make sure you cheer for Tennessee, though. ;-)
 
#57
#57
Will add St. Mary's, Colorado, Wichita State, Cincinnati, La Salle and California when I get home, those teams aren't locks.

Also, these teams are favorites to win their conference, but there's a chance that if they didn't they'd still get in, thus taking away a bubble bid. Creighton, La Tech, Akron, Bucknell, MTSU and Belmont. These teams losing before their conference tounrey would be great because that'd keep them from stealing an at large bid if they don't win their conference.
 
#58
#58
I will update the OP daily as well, to reflect resume of teams that played and also I'm going to add a section for games each day.
 
#60
#60
Updated OP with today's games of interest...


GAMES OF INTEREST 3/4/13


7pm Cincinnati @ Louisville
Impact: Cincinnati is not a lock at this point, losing to UL, and losing their season finale could very well put them on the bubble.

9pm Baylor @ Texas
Impact: Baylor is currently out in most brackets, but a road win against Texas could give them hope. On the flip side, losing this game should knock them off the bubble for good.
 
#61
#61
Ky and UGA play on Thu. It'll be interesting to see how that impacts their games on Sat against Fla and Bama. We need UGA to beat Ky and Bama. If Ky loses to UGA, they'll have to turn around and play Fla on less than 2 days rest after playing at UGA.
 
#62
#62
Just don't ask ESPN Surprisingly, were not mention there, but are in the others!
 
#67
#67
Great night last night, only 2 games of relevance both went our way...will update with today's games shortly.
 
#68
#68
Wednesday is such a huge day. Two teams we have played are playing bubble teams. OK St V Iowa St and Georgetown Vs Nova.

If Gtown and OKSt can both win and we win on Wednesday that will be HUGE!
 
#70
#70
Today's games of interest, if I missed any please let me know...


7pm St. John's at Notre Dame
Impact: St. John's is off the bubble, but a win tonight could get them back in the discussion, a loss likely finishes them off.

7pm Arkansas at Missouri
Impact: Arkansas much like St. John's is off the bubble, but with a win over UK last game, beating Missouri on the road would get them in the mix, a loss should finish them.

7pm USM at Marshall
Impact: USM is a bubble team, a loss to a Marshall team would REALLY hurt their resume.

9pm Alabama at Ole Miss
Impact: Either outcome is good as it hurts a bubble teams resume, but Ole miss has the harder remaining game so I'll go with rooting for Ole Miss in this one.

9pm Boise State at UNLV
Impact: Boise is in according to most, but losing their final 2 would likely have them on the outside looking in going into their conference tourney.
 
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#74
#74
So, a friend and colleague of mine is the "Nate Silver of college basketball," having very accurately predicted the tournament committee's selections using his Dance Card algorithm for the past decade.

He usually gets all but one of the teams right (in a good year gets them all, and in a bad year misses as many as two). Thought I'd share the link.

It's a very data driven approach to predicting the committee's decision making, and cuts through all of the bias/judgment that ESPN and CBS prognosticators allow to leak into their predictions. See:

NCAA Tournament "DanceCard" by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch

Take note that his latest iteration was calculated before the Baylor loss to Texas. Also note that the % chance column is calculated as "if the season ended this very second." It does not take into account the results of games left to be played.
 
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#75
#75
PagingDrVol said:
So, a friend and colleague of mine is the "Nate Silver of college basketball," having very accurately predicted the tournament committee's selections using his Dance Card algorithm for the past decade.

He usually gets all but one of the teams right (in a good year gets them all, and in a bad year misses as many as two). Thought I'd share the link.

It's a very data driven approach to predicting the committee's decision making, and cuts through all of the bias/judgment that ESPN and CBS prognosticators allow to leak into their predictions. See:

NCAA Tournament "DanceCard" by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch

Take note that his latest iteration was calculated before the Baylor loss to Texas. Also note that the % chance column is calculated as "if the season ended this very second." It does not take into account the results of games left to be played.
Click to expand...

Pretty interesting.
 
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