Vols, we are officially at the halfway point of the debut season of Jones and Team 117. The game against those Dawgs of UGA was a barn burner. Without going into great detail I can say that the second half was some of the finest play calling and effort that I have seen from the men in Orange since the late 1990's. This game has been discussed to the point that it is threadbare, and there is no reason to rehash what is old news.
The bottom line is that we are right on track of where talent evaluations would indicate at 3-3. If you listen to the media you would be lead to believe that the remainder of the season is a gauntlet that would be lucky to net the Vols two wins.
Don't give in to that nonsense.
The last six games of the season should net Tennessee a record of 4-2. Remember, talent predicts the outcome of the vast majority of games. Let's look at our opponents and how they have fared based on talent evaluations.
SEE CHART BELOW
What does this show? That talent evaluations have predicted the performance of SCAR, BAMA, MIZZOU and VANDY exactly. AUBURN and KENTUCKY have both lost one game that they should have won.
Some thoughts on each game:
First off is South Carolina. This game makes me nervous. We all know the storyline of Spurrier and his Cocks. UT should win this game based on talent (believe it or not) so a win is not a "signature win" for Jones. The good news though, is that should UT lose this game it isn't damning to the Vols. Spurrier has a team, and system, in place that over-performs on a measurable level. There is something amiss at South Carolina, however, and the performance of Clowney should be a concern for Cock fans.
Bama...ugh. If we get our wish, Saban will fly off to Austin and the SEC landscape will totally change...but that is next year. This year, there is hope (see: aTm v. Bama last year) but it isn't likely. Wish for a close game with no injuries, and hope for Bama to overlook the boys in Orange.
On to Missouri. This chart does not fit the media narrative that Missouri is somehow worthy of a top 25 berth. They have not beaten a team who has recruited inside the top 40. And, while that might be good for Ryan Seacrest and the American Top 40, in football we only care about top 25 performers. Mizzou like Lady GaGa, gets the benefit of making the charts by being all flash and no substance. Let's get Mizzou in one of GaGa's meat dresses and unleash Smokey.
Conversely, Tennessee fans seem to be overlooking a very talented Auburn team who dropped a game to a very talented LSU team. I can't say it enough, don't expect a win against Auburn. There is always hope, and hope is good. I simply and strongly recommend that you don't base your conclusions on Jones and the Volunteers on this game should it be a loss.
Look at Vandy. Unlike last year where they faced massively under performing Auburn and Tennessee teams, and played a crucially hobbled Missouri team, they are performing precisely as their bottom tier SEC recruiting would predict.
Finally, the new era at Kentucky is just like the old era at Kentucky. Nothing to see here.
Throw a Tennessee team who has a talent level of about 15 into these schedules and you can see how we as fans should objectively expect to see a UT performance of 4-2 over this six game stretch. Jones and company's performance on Saturday was the first indication of how he has a net positive effect on talent. We shouldn't expect to see that reveal itself this year in a "signature win"*, but he has proven that on subsequent years he effects talent by about 2-3 on the positive side.
Unless something drastically changes, we are on the journey to a 7-5 record, a win over two top 25 teams (SCAR and MIZZOU), and a bowl birth for the first time since 2010.
*My definition of a signature win is a coach who beats a team who has a solid advantage in talent. Football rankings don't matter for this evaluation (see: Mizzou). For Jones that would have required a win over Oregon, Florida, UGA, Bama, or Auburn. There is still a chance for a signature win in year one, but it is diminished.
The bottom line is that we are right on track of where talent evaluations would indicate at 3-3. If you listen to the media you would be lead to believe that the remainder of the season is a gauntlet that would be lucky to net the Vols two wins.
Don't give in to that nonsense.
The last six games of the season should net Tennessee a record of 4-2. Remember, talent predicts the outcome of the vast majority of games. Let's look at our opponents and how they have fared based on talent evaluations.
SEE CHART BELOW
What does this show? That talent evaluations have predicted the performance of SCAR, BAMA, MIZZOU and VANDY exactly. AUBURN and KENTUCKY have both lost one game that they should have won.
Some thoughts on each game:
First off is South Carolina. This game makes me nervous. We all know the storyline of Spurrier and his Cocks. UT should win this game based on talent (believe it or not) so a win is not a "signature win" for Jones. The good news though, is that should UT lose this game it isn't damning to the Vols. Spurrier has a team, and system, in place that over-performs on a measurable level. There is something amiss at South Carolina, however, and the performance of Clowney should be a concern for Cock fans.
Bama...ugh. If we get our wish, Saban will fly off to Austin and the SEC landscape will totally change...but that is next year. This year, there is hope (see: aTm v. Bama last year) but it isn't likely. Wish for a close game with no injuries, and hope for Bama to overlook the boys in Orange.
On to Missouri. This chart does not fit the media narrative that Missouri is somehow worthy of a top 25 berth. They have not beaten a team who has recruited inside the top 40. And, while that might be good for Ryan Seacrest and the American Top 40, in football we only care about top 25 performers. Mizzou like Lady GaGa, gets the benefit of making the charts by being all flash and no substance. Let's get Mizzou in one of GaGa's meat dresses and unleash Smokey.
Conversely, Tennessee fans seem to be overlooking a very talented Auburn team who dropped a game to a very talented LSU team. I can't say it enough, don't expect a win against Auburn. There is always hope, and hope is good. I simply and strongly recommend that you don't base your conclusions on Jones and the Volunteers on this game should it be a loss.
Look at Vandy. Unlike last year where they faced massively under performing Auburn and Tennessee teams, and played a crucially hobbled Missouri team, they are performing precisely as their bottom tier SEC recruiting would predict.
Finally, the new era at Kentucky is just like the old era at Kentucky. Nothing to see here.
Throw a Tennessee team who has a talent level of about 15 into these schedules and you can see how we as fans should objectively expect to see a UT performance of 4-2 over this six game stretch. Jones and company's performance on Saturday was the first indication of how he has a net positive effect on talent. We shouldn't expect to see that reveal itself this year in a "signature win"*, but he has proven that on subsequent years he effects talent by about 2-3 on the positive side.
Unless something drastically changes, we are on the journey to a 7-5 record, a win over two top 25 teams (SCAR and MIZZOU), and a bowl birth for the first time since 2010.
*My definition of a signature win is a coach who beats a team who has a solid advantage in talent. Football rankings don't matter for this evaluation (see: Mizzou). For Jones that would have required a win over Oregon, Florida, UGA, Bama, or Auburn. There is still a chance for a signature win in year one, but it is diminished.
