Season is half over, what does the remainder of the season look like?

#51
#51
sjt18 said:
I'm going to agree with the OP and say Auburn. I'd probably make Mizzou 3rd considering USC's issues.

PS- Columbia is a little more than an hour from my house. I hope to be there to see UT take on MU.
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Minus Bama its gonna be an interesting stretch. USC is the springboard IMO. Hopefully it springs us in the right direction.
 
#52
#52
sjt18 said:
I'm going to agree with the OP and say Auburn. I'd probably make Mizzou 3rd considering USC's issues.

PS- Columbia is a little more than an hour from my house. I hope to be there to see UT take on MU.
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I might try to make that trip.
 
#56
#56
immyaxl said:
If u think Mizzou is a bad team u don't know anything about football. The only easy game UT has left is Kentucky. The Vols will need to play like they did against Georgia against everybody else if they want to go bowling!
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He didn't say Mizzou is a bad tem, just that they are not a top 25 team and don't deserve their ranking and he is right. You don't get into the top 25 by beating Indiana, Arkansas State and Vandy. What have they really showed to be considered in the top 25?
 
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#59
#59
BigOrangeTrain said:
He didn't say Mizzou is a bad tem, just that they are not a top 25 team and don't deserve their ranking and he is right. You don't get into the top 25 by beating Indiana, Arkansas State and Vandy. What have they really showed to be considered in the top 25?
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Vandy may not be respected by Vols fans but Mizzou made the top 25 based off of what they did to them. Ole Miss was ranked after they beat Vandy as well. If Mizzou doesn't beat Georgia i'll eat crow.
 
#60
#60
immyaxl said:
Shut down their run and they're done. The Vols blew a major opportunity to beat the Gators when they were down.
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i know they may seem really pedestrian....

but, florida is completing 70% of their passes, converting 50% on third down, and leading the nation in time of possession.

those things are not as sexy as total yards, points, etc. so, i am not trying to claim that florida has some sort of great offense.

however, florida's offense is not all that bad. it really isn't.

the other thing that makes the numbers deceptive is that the opponent does not matter. the offensive output is not going to be much different if the opponent is georgia southern or georgia. the point being that they don't have big numbers that skew their performance against cupcakes and then get squashed by a superior opponent.
 
#62
#62
daj2576 said:
Vols, we are officially at the halfway point of the debut season of Jones and Team 117. The game against those Dawgs of UGA was a barn burner. Without going into great detail I can say that the second half was some of the finest play calling and effort that I have seen from the men in Orange since the late 1990's. This game has been discussed to the point that it is threadbare, and there is no reason to rehash what is old news.

The bottom line is that we are right on track of where talent evaluations would indicate at 3-3. If you listen to the media you would be lead to believe that the remainder of the season is a gauntlet that would be lucky to net the Vols two wins.

Don't give in to that nonsense.

The last six games of the season should net Tennessee a record of 4-2. Remember, talent predicts the outcome of the vast majority of games. Let's look at our opponents and how they have fared based on talent evaluations.

SEE CHART BELOW

What does this show? That talent evaluations have predicted the performance of SCAR, BAMA, MIZZOU and VANDY exactly. AUBURN and KENTUCKY have both lost one game that they should have won.

Some thoughts on each game:

First off is South Carolina. This game makes me nervous. We all know the storyline of Spurrier and his Cocks. UT should win this game based on talent (believe it or not) so a win is not a "signature win" for Jones. The good news though, is that should UT lose this game it isn't damning to the Vols. Spurrier has a team, and system, in place that over-performs on a measurable level. There is something amiss at South Carolina, however, and the performance of Clowney should be a concern for Cock fans.

Bama...ugh. If we get our wish, Saban will fly off to Austin and the SEC landscape will totally change...but that is next year. This year, there is hope (see: aTm v. Bama last year) but it isn't likely. Wish for a close game with no injuries, and hope for Bama to overlook the boys in Orange.

On to Missouri. This chart does not fit the media narrative that Missouri is somehow worthy of a top 25 berth. They have not beaten a team who has recruited inside the top 40. And, while that might be good for Ryan Seacrest and the American Top 40, in football we only care about top 25 performers. Mizzou like Lady GaGa, gets the benefit of making the charts by being all flash and no substance. Let's get Mizzou in one of GaGa's meat dresses and unleash Smokey.

Conversely, Tennessee fans seem to be overlooking a very talented Auburn team who dropped a game to a very talented LSU team. I can't say it enough, don't expect a win against Auburn. There is always hope, and hope is good. I simply and strongly recommend that you don't base your conclusions on Jones and the Volunteers on this game should it be a loss.

Look at Vandy. Unlike last year where they faced massively under performing Auburn and Tennessee teams, and played a crucially hobbled Missouri team, they are performing precisely as their bottom tier SEC recruiting would predict.

Finally, the new era at Kentucky is just like the old era at Kentucky. Nothing to see here.

Throw a Tennessee team who has a talent level of about 15 into these schedules and you can see how we as fans should objectively expect to see a UT performance of 4-2 over this six game stretch. Jones and company's performance on Saturday was the first indication of how he has a net positive effect on talent. We shouldn't expect to see that reveal itself this year in a "signature win"*, but he has proven that on subsequent years he effects talent by about 2-3 on the positive side.

Unless something drastically changes, we are on the journey to a 7-5 record, a win over two top 25 teams (SCAR and MIZZOU), and a bowl birth for the first time since 2010.

*My definition of a signature win is a coach who beats a team who has a solid advantage in talent. Football rankings don't matter for this evaluation (see: Mizzou). For Jones that would have required a win over Oregon, Florida, UGA, Bama, or Auburn. There is still a chance for a signature win in year one, but it is diminished.
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4-2 at worst for a 7-5 season! Maybe 8-4! The team is improving but so are some of the other teams we still play. I still say we beat USCe, Auburn, Vandy & Kentucky. Missouri is looking more and more difficult and Bama, well enough said.

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
 
#63
#63
tennesseeduke said:
4-2 at worst for a 7-5 season! Maybe 8-4! The team is improving but so are some of the other teams we still play. I still say we beat USCe, Auburn, Vandy & Kentucky. Missouri is looking more and more difficult and Bama, well enough said.

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
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Frankly I dont care how we get there, just that we do. If we trade Mizzou for Auburn, so be it.
 
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#64
#64
Boca Vol said:
I enjoyed reading the OP, but I don't agree with UT having "15" talent.
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Was wondering this myself, so I just looked up the Rivals ratings:


2013 21
2012 17
2011 13
2010 9

That averages out to exactly 15. Don't know if OP was using Rivals, Scout, ESPN, some combination, etc.
 
#65
#65
@OP

What is your source of the rankings?

Can you please post the speadsheet for Tennessee...this would be really interesting.

Thanks!
 
#66
#66
fade route said:
Signature win has to be in conference imo, against a team in the top half of the league.
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I don't think it has to be in conference. If we could have pulled the shocker and beat Oregon it definitely would have been a signature win. At this point I would consider a win over Oklahoma next season as a signature win.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#67
#67
Interesting read op, however even with all your analysis, this team is still a few bricks away from thinking about bowl games. As I see it, any win in the SEC is a signature win for this team at this particular time. We have a new coaching staff, once again, and this is a time of regrowth and stability that is needed by this football team. Sure, I would like to see this Vol team win out the rest of the way. In reality we are still a few bricks short of having that team in place. GBO!
 
#68
#68
99gator said:
i know they may seem really pedestrian....

but, florida is completing 70% of their passes, converting 50% on third down, and leading the nation in time of possession.

those things are not as sexy as total yards, points, etc. so, i am not trying to claim that florida has some sort of great offense.

however, florida's offense is not all that bad. it really isn't.

the other thing that makes the numbers deceptive is that the opponent does not matter. the offensive output is not going to be much different if the opponent is georgia southern or georgia. the point being that they don't have big numbers that skew their performance against cupcakes and then get squashed by a superior opponent.
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In a sick twisted way. Your welcome. :hi:
 
#69
#69
Must win three more games would like to win five. I don't see anyway to beat Bama. I think we can win the SC game with a great effort like the Georgia game. Missouri will be tough they have a mobile QB which we can't usually contain. Auburn and Vandy at home must wins we are in the same class talent wise as those two. Kentucky should be a win.
 
#70
#70
99gator said:
i thought georgia would win big. i was wrong. it happens. i thought alabama would win big in 2009. i was wrong.

as far as qb's hurting tennessee with their legs, i can't be the only one who has noticed this.
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Mose Definilly....Hell, Murray killed us on that QB draw...

But my hope is that, as our staff whittles away at fixing deficiencies....they HAVE to be looking at that as a major
Leak that needs a huge plug.
 
#71
#71
MyBloodRunnethOrange said:
I don't think it has to be in conference. If we could have pulled the shocker and beat Oregon it definitely would have been a signature win. At this point I would consider a win over Oklahoma next season as a signature win.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

Two types:

signature win and **signature win
 
#72
#72
I hate saying it but I think people may be a little too high right now. How many freaking ranked opponents are we going to have to go through before the year's end?
 
#73
#73
tennesseeduke said:
4-2 at worst for a 7-5 season! Maybe 8-4! The team is improving but so are some of the other teams we still play. I still say we beat USCe, Auburn, Vandy & Kentucky. Missouri is looking more and more difficult and Bama, well enough said.

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
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It is hard to exactly pin down where any team is in its progression. But generally speaking, the further a team is from its potential, the more significant and fast the improvements seem to be. As an organization approaches its potential the opportunities for improvement become more difficult to identify and achieve.

IMHO, Mizzou is what they are. They are not a particularly talented team in SEC terms and are very close to their potential. Vandy is what they are. UK will improve but their top end isn't very high. Bama is pretty close to potential... and pretty out of reach for most teams.

I think Auburn is a team improving toward pretty significant potential based on talent.

I actually think USCe is pretty close to their potential and is well within range for UT to knock them off.


But we still have to play the games. One of the heartbreaking and great things about football is that it is unpredictable. UT has to continue to improve. They have to continue to install, master, and execute the O. They have to avoid catastrophic injuries at key positions.


I still say that if Jones is the right coach for UT he will win 7 games or more. He definitely proved to me that he can outcoach an upper tier team this past Saturday but he still has to close the deal.
 
#75
#75
99gator said:
i know they may seem really pedestrian....

but, florida is completing 70% of their passes, converting 50% on third down, and leading the nation in time of possession.

those things are not as sexy as total yards, points, etc. so, i am not trying to claim that florida has some sort of great offense.

however, florida's offense is not all that bad. it really isn't.

the other thing that makes the numbers deceptive is that the opponent does not matter. the offensive output is not going to be much different if the opponent is georgia southern or georgia. the point being that they don't have big numbers that skew their performance against cupcakes and then get squashed by a superior opponent.
Click to expand...

And some of you guys just really can't wrap your head around why I accuse this guy of being condescending.

It is subtle. But the Gators are never quite that bad... and the Vols are never quite that good according to him. UT's problems are always huge... UF's are never that big.

You might say, "Well, he's just a fan". That would be true if he were posting with this consistency on a Gator board. He's doing it on the board of a rival... constantly...
 
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