Season is half over, what does the remainder of the season look like?

[sjt18]

I think one could say Indiana might be after what the Hoosiers went and did to Penn State.

Then again saying that would also depend on what that team does for the rest of the year.

PSU is hurting and it will get much worse before getting any better. They barely beat a pretty bad Syracuse team Lost to UCF. Lost in a blow out to Indiana who lost to Navy in addition to Mizzou.

Indiana now hits the more difficult part of their schedule. They have 4 almost certain losses in their next 7 games.

 

[99gator]

And some of you guys just really can't wrap your head around why I accuse this guy of being condescending.

It is subtle. But the Gators are never quite that bad... and the Vols are never quite that good according to him. UT's problems are always huge... UF's are never that big.

You might say, "Well, he's just a fan". That would be true if he were posting with this consistency on a Gator board. He's doing it on the board of a rival... constantly...

You seriously need to seek help

 

[tm3]

And some of you guys just really can't wrap your head around why I accuse this guy of being condescending.

it amazes me that more people don't see it, even though this particular one veils it better than others.

he is not here to "just talk football" -- he and his brethren are here to denigrate UT at every opportunity, sometimes subtle, sometimes not so much.

the real mystery is why they find that to be such a source of enjoyment.

 

[1974Vol]

I think one could say Indiana might be after what the Hoosiers went and did to Penn State.

Then again saying that would also depend on what that team does for the rest of the year.

Indiana also lost to Navy and this Penn State team is not exactly what they have been in the past.

 

[WiseOlVol]

If u think Mizzou is a bad team u don't know anything about football. The only easy game UT has left is Kentucky. The Vols will need to play like they did against Georgia against everybody else if they want to go bowling!

The Vols didn't play well vs. UGA. At least they didn't play as well as they're capable.

Still stitching together the D and, yet, we played the best QB in the league to a tie.

 

[DD4ME]

And some of you guys just really can't wrap your head around why I accuse this guy of being condescending.

It is subtle. But the Gators are never quite that bad... and the Vols are never quite that good according to him. UT's problems are always huge... UF's are never that big.

You might say, "Well, he's just a fan". That would be true if he were posting with this consistency on a Gator board. He's doing it on the board of a rival... constantly...

He's a gator, subtle condescension means he's really trying.

 

[daj2576]

@OP

What is your source of the rankings?

Can you please post the speadsheet for Tennessee...this would be really interesting.

Thanks!

For this analysis the source of the rankings is Rivals.

I can only post what I post because it is so simple and reliable.

I have done a very comprehensive sort of analysis for my employer, which is why I can't post more than what I do.

At some point the line between what I have done, and what I have been paid to do blurs. That is a line that I can't cross. Giving out more comprehensive data begins to cross that line. So, I stick to simply rehashing what this entry level evaluation would predict.

I can only tell you this, if you rely on 4 years of rivals recruiting averages you can predict about 2/3 of the games. There are ways to do MUCH better, believe me.

 

[BanditVol]

I hate saying it but I think people may be a little too high right now. How many freaking ranked opponents are we going to have to go through before the year's end?

At the moment 3 more....but I think everyone has known this all along.

 

[BanditVol]

For this analysis the source of the rankings is Rivals.

I can only post what I post because it is so simple and reliable.

I have done a very comprehensive sort of analysis for my employer, which is why I can't post more than what I do.

At some point the line between what I have done, and what I have been paid to do blurs. That is a line that I can't cross. Giving out more comprehensive data begins to cross that line. So, I stick to simply rehashing what this entry level evaluation would predict.

I can only tell you this, if you rely on 4 years of rivals recruiting averages you can predict about 2/3 of the games. There are ways to do MUCH better, believe me.

Thanks dude. I was only looking for "Rivals", lol, but thanks for the extra information. I can crank out the Vol numbers myself.

Who is your employer? I am still fairly new on here....others might already know who you work for? :huh:

As for the other things you mention, I would expect maybe factoring in defections and losses from recruiting classes would be one thing, and I am sure there are others.

 

[walkenvol]

And some of you guys just really can't wrap your head around why I accuse this guy of being condescending.

It is subtle. But the Gators are never quite that bad... and the Vols are never quite that good according to him. UT's problems are always huge... UF's are never that big.

You might say, "Well, he's just a fan". That would be true if he were posting with this consistency on a Gator board. He's doing it on the board of a rival... constantly...

And why would I give a darn?

Don't like his posts - then don't read them. It is a message board you know.

Have you noticed that IGNORE button?

 

[daj2576]

Thanks dude. I was only looking for "Rivals", lol, but thanks for the extra information. I can crank out the Vol numbers myself.

Who is your employer? I am still fairly new on here....others might already know who you work for? :huh:

As for the other things you mention, I would expect maybe factoring in defections and losses from recruiting classes would be one thing, and I am sure there are others.

I probably shouldn't say who I am employed by. I hate to be cagey, but I'll leave it at that.

Second thing, before you try to reinvent the wheel, read other posts that discussed the development of this analysis (search for: statistics tell the story, or some permutation of that). Also, read cfbmatrix.com. Dave Bartoo has a whole explanation on everything you discussed.

 

[DD4ME]

My one question for OP has to do with USC. Since we are technically very close in ranking how's the coaches coefficient factor in? Also the QB? I'd presume those 2 factors with Spurriers track record even that gap somewhat.

 

[daj2576]

My one question for OP has to do with USC. Since we are technically very close in ranking how's the coaches coefficient factor in? Also the QB? I'd presume those 2 factors with Spurriers track record even that gap somewhat.

Spurrier is one of the most over-performing coaches in the SEC. He was second only to Bobby Petrino before that fateful evening on the back of a Hog.

Also consider that now with Jones we have a coach with a history of over performance on a level similar to, if not greater than, Spurrier. I just don't expect it to show up in year one with UT.

That is why I said that this game makes me nervous but that a loss ins't damning to Jones.

As a general discussion and using only my memory as a resource, the SEC look(ed) like this: Petrino at +4, Franklin at +4 (easily explainable in my view), Spurrier at +2/3, Sumlin at +1, Richt/Miles/Smith/Pinkel at +0, Saban at -1, Muschamp at -2/3, Dooley/Chizik at around -4.

Those numbers are often misleading as 1)Saban out recruits everyone so he should never lose a game, but he does. It is also impossible for him to get a + rating due to the fact that noone out recruits him. 2)Spurriers numbers are misleading as well. He has a net positive effect on talent, but he tends to peak in recruiting fairly early so it isn't that his teams are getting better. In my view he has peaked and this is roughly where he will stay until retirement. 3) Muschamp is second only to Saban in recruiting but relies on talent alone to win games. See Muschamp's inability to develop, retain or define talent on his roster. As Muschamp doesn't play Bama every year, they should never lose a game. I think they lose again this Saturday. 4)Miles and Richt are coaches who do what UT has been incapable of doing for 5-7 years: win the number of games they should and lose only the number of games they should (as predicted by talent).

Jones has shown an ability to increase recruiting averages every year he is on a campus, and also average winning 2 or more games a year than his talent would predict. The lone exception is his first year at Cincy, where he only won 4 games. That is just as talent predicted, btw.

 

[DD4ME]

Spurrier is one of the most over-performing coaches in the SEC. He was second only to Bobby Petrino before that fateful evening on the back of a Hog.

Also consider that now with Jones we have a coach with a history of over performance on a level similar to, if not greater than, Spurrier. I just don't expect it to show up in year one with UT.

That is why I said that this game makes me nervous but that a loss ins't damning to Jones.

As a general discussion and using only my memory as a resource, the SEC look(ed) like this: Petrino at +4, Franklin at +4 (easily explainable in my view), Spurrier at +2/3, Sumlin at +1, Richt/Miles/Smith/Pinkel at +0, Saban at -1, Muschamp at -2/3, Dooley/Chizik at around -4.

Those numbers are often misleading as 1)Saban out recruits everyone so he should never lose a game, but he does. It is also impossible for him to get a + rating due to the fact that noone out recruits him. 2)Spurriers numbers are misleading as well. He has a net positive effect on talent, but he tends to peak in recruiting fairly early so it isn't that his teams are getting better. In my view he has peaked and this is roughly where he will stay until retirement. 3) Muschamp is second only to Saban in recruiting but relies on talent alone to win games. See Muschamp's inability to develop, retain or define talent on his roster. As Muschamp doesn't play Bama every year, they should never lose a game. I think they lose again this Saturday. 4)Miles and Richt are coaches who do what UT has been incapable of doing for 5-7 years: win the number of games they should and lose only the number of games they should (as predicted by talent).

Jones has shown an ability to increase recruiting averages every year he is on a campus, and also average winning 2 or more games a year than his talent would predict. The lone exception is his first year at Cincy, where he only won 4 games. That is just as talent predicted, btw.

I thought so. Essentially for the USC game in year one of Butch's tenure he and Spurrier are meeting at opposite ends of the bell curve which in this year may benefit Spurrier. That makes total sense to me. I certainly hope your prediction is correct.

 

[Nashvol2]

do you have a good source for tickets?

No. I noticed uttix.com had them for $75 a pop. More worried about the drive from Nashville, hotels, and game time.

 

[daj2576]

I thought so. Essentially for the USC game in year one of Butch's tenure he and Spurrier are meeting at opposite ends of the bell curve which in this year may benefit Spurrier. That makes total sense to me. I certainly hope your prediction is correct.

Me too. There is a 70% chance I am right.

 

[DaddyChad]

At the moment 3 more....but I think everyone has known this all along.

South Carolina, Bama, Missouri.

Is Auburn ranked by then though?

 

[loggervol]

Or is it half began?....:huh:

 

[sjt18]

You seriously need to seek help

Why? Because I see through you?

 

[sjt18]

He's a gator, subtle condescension means he's really trying.

LOL... probably true.

 

[sjt18]

Spurrier is one of the most over-performing coaches in the SEC. He was second only to Bobby Petrino before that fateful evening on the back of a Hog.

Also consider that now with Jones we have a coach with a history of over performance on a level similar to, if not greater than, Spurrier. I just don't expect it to show up in year one with UT.

That is why I said that this game makes me nervous but that a loss ins't damning to Jones.

As a general discussion and using only my memory as a resource, the SEC look(ed) like this: Petrino at +4, Franklin at +4 (easily explainable in my view), Spurrier at +2/3, Sumlin at +1, Richt/Miles/Smith/Pinkel at +0, Saban at -1, Muschamp at -2/3, Dooley/Chizik at around -4.

Those numbers are often misleading as 1)Saban out recruits everyone so he should never lose a game, but he does. It is also impossible for him to get a + rating due to the fact that noone out recruits him. 2)Spurriers numbers are misleading as well. He has a net positive effect on talent, but he tends to peak in recruiting fairly early so it isn't that his teams are getting better. In my view he has peaked and this is roughly where he will stay until retirement. 3) Muschamp is second only to Saban in recruiting but relies on talent alone to win games. See Muschamp's inability to develop, retain or define talent on his roster. As Muschamp doesn't play Bama every year, they should never lose a game. I think they lose again this Saturday. 4)Miles and Richt are coaches who do what UT has been incapable of doing for 5-7 years: win the number of games they should and lose only the number of games they should (as predicted by talent).

Jones has shown an ability to increase recruiting averages every year he is on a campus, and also average winning 2 or more games a year than his talent would predict. The lone exception is his first year at Cincy, where he only won 4 games. That is just as talent predicted, btw.

I think Spurrier is different this year. He looks sullen. He's having problems keeping discipline within his program. His best player seems to be playing to preserve his draft status.

I haven't seen the old Spurrier this year. Kind of miss it to be truthful.

Someone also posted a link to a segment of his coach's show on TV. He was drunk enough for his speech to be slurred and his statements to be kind of "off".

I'm thinking he's done.

 

[sjt18]

No. I noticed uttix.com had them for $75 a pop. More worried about the drive from Nashville, hotels, and game time.

Those corner seats for visitors are pretty bad. I saw some on stubhub I believe for behind the bench in the lower level for around $100.

Hotel rooms are not usually an issue. Generally speaking you will be around $100 for a Comfort Inn type of place. I do not gamble but there is a casino that I believe has a decent hotel in Boonville MO. It would be around a 30-45 minute drive. If you don't mind driving a little, there are some lake resorts about an hour south that will probably have winter rates by then.

Depending on how you drive, it is about 8 or 9 hours from N'ville.


Let me know if you get really serious. We can figure out a way to exchange email addresses and I will try to help you out.

 

[sjt18]

Actually those seats for about $100 were around the 25 yd line on the UT side.

 

[99gator]

Why? Because I see through you?

i picked tennessee to go 6-6 before the season. you have them going 7-5.

how much difference is there?

i have never said anything negative about butch jones. i have said 2014 will be better than 2013. i have said i believe butch jones will succeed. is any of that bashing tennessee? i have commented on the vast improvement of the tennessee special teams. is that bashing tennessee?

you speak as if any criticism that is being made has no legitimacy. like the criticism is being made of the #1 team in the country on a 35 game winning streak.

so, i say tennessee has huge problems in certain areas. they are 3-3, are they not? they are 2-16 in the last 18 conference games, are they not? is it not reasonable and possible to believe that a team with that kind of record has huge problems? is that really going off the deep end?

the vast majority of this board believes that a bowl birth is a successful season. is that condescending? is it condescending to have an orgasm over a loss? how little do the majority of posters think of the team that a loss results in such giddiness. that a bowl birth would be deemed a success? yet, you choose to single out the things i post as if they are outlandish and the thoughts are not shared by anyone else either on the board or throughout the country. let's look at the georgia prediction thread and see if i am the only one who thought georgia would win big....just as an example.

furthermore, all this board does is speak condescendingly of damn near every team in america except alabama and of damn near every coach in america except nick saban.

or do i need to link to threads from oregon week?

so, get a grip and stop pretending that the opinions i have are not legitimate, well reasoned thoughts....whether they turn out to be correct or incorrect.

 

[GetEmVols]

I think we will go 4-2 this half of the schedule.