Star Worshipping

[ORANGE & WHITE]

The point I've been making all along has been proven. The teams that have been winning championships have been the same ones consistently at the top of the recruiting rankings.

You are looking only at the numbers that back your argument. By looking at the data, it also proves the opposite... Just depends on the method of interpretation that you apply.

 

[SGMVols]

You are looking only at the numbers that back your argument. By looking at the data, it also proves the opposite... Just depends on the method of interpretation that you apply.

It is true that there are teams with 4 and 5 star players that don't win. Never disagreed with that. But I don't see teams winning SEC or national championships without them. That was my point.

 

[sjt18]

So the national champion, national runner-up, SEC champion, SEC runner-up, Big Ten champion, and Big 12 champion all have >42% of their rosters made up of 4 and 5 star players.

The NC team had EXACTLY 42%... that's less than half. IOW's, if DD's class this year ends up around 50%... UT will have about the same % as Bama's NC team.

You're whole argument is disproven by these facts. No one has said you can't win without talent. The point is that you can find talent without them having 4-5* ratings.

 

[sjt18]

It is true that there are teams with 4 and 5 star players that don't win. Never disagreed with that. But I don't see teams winning SEC or national championships without them. That was my point.

And your point was disproven by Bama.

 

[ORANGE & WHITE]

It is true that there are teams with 4 and 5 star players that don't win. Never disagreed with that. But I don't see teams winning SEC or national championships without them. That was my point.

Just for the record SGM, I agree with you. We need to recruit at the level of Bama and Florida if we want those kind of results. Just playing devil's advocate.

 

[govols182]

And?? He's one of the exceptions to the rule or recruiting services. He's a bust, so move on. BTW, I bet if I dug up one of your posts from back then, I would say you would have been riding that train too.

I see how things work around here now. I move on from things I say and change my thoughts and mind just like the rest of the world, but yet people around here still want to point out I was wrong. Wow, big freaking deal someone was wrong on a message board!! You want a freaking pat on the back?? Some kind of merit badge for pointing it out??

I'm not faulting you here man, just don't get into the mode where you want to be like every other jackhole on this site and do that crap. If you want me to say I am wrong, fine, just don't be an ass about it.

I actually thought he was overrated after watching his videos. I said it multiple times after he signed.

 

[UTChicagoV]

The point I've been making all along has been proven. The teams that have been winning championships have been the same ones consistently at the top of the recruiting rankings.

Way to only look at the data that supports your POV...look at all the data and your point is a lot weaker.

 

[StoVol]

personally i've always like looking at the stars, especially on moonless nights

 

[Tampavolz]

It is true that there are teams with 4 and 5 star players that don't win. Never disagreed with that. But I don't see teams winning SEC or national championships without them. That was my point.

i don't really disagree with you, only that if you look closer into the details at Rivals and see the power ratings you will see that the three stars we are getting commitments from are within a very small fraction of actually being a 4 star, and the HS season has not been played yet. You cannot disagree that a #22 ranked player (3*) is that much less of a talent than say a #19 ranked payer even though stars indicate otherwise.

 

[MDBJJC]

We need some 4 stars up in this piece. j/k...actually we really do need some star power.

No NC team wins with a 3 star lineup...fact. It's a bit of a paradox, but the numbers don't lie. The best teams recruit year in and year out with 4s and some 5s. Not every 5 pans out, and not every 4. The odds are however that you are more likely to get drafted into the NFL if you are a 4 or a 5. The most talented teams in the SEC (the most 4s and 5s) seem to compete at the highest level.

 

[sjt18]

MDBJJC, did you see the percentages earlier? Bama just DID win the NC with a team that had 57% 2-3* players. Honestly, that is pretty clear and compelling evidence that you can rely heavily on 3* players and be very, very good.

 

[MDBJJC]

MDBJJC, did you see the percentages earlier? Bama just DID win the NC with a team that had 57% 2-3* players. Honestly, that is pretty clear and compelling evidence that you can rely heavily on 3* players and be very, very good.

True dat. Not saying that it is everything, but Bama also recruited the top two classes in the country. Yes they were very young, but no doubt that early talent helps.

Coaching is very important too. Must be disciplined and well coached. You have to have the combination of talent with great coaching to win in the SEC.

UGA and LSU are prime examples of a lot of talent with not so great coaching. Underachievers for sure. We used to be an underachieving team as well under Phil.

 

[keepitreal]

Good post I agree.

 

[keepitreal]

True dat. Not saying that it is everything, but Bama also recruited the top two classes in the country. Yes they were very young, but no doubt that early talent helps.

Coaching is very important too. Must be disciplined and well coached. You have to have the combination of talent with great coaching to win in the SEC.

UGA and LSU are prime examples of a lot of talent with not so great coaching. Underachievers for sure. We used to be an underachieving team as well under Phil.

Good post I agree.

 

[Volru]

I'm an advocate of seeing how players develop in a system before I think that they are worthy of their ranking or not. Here is something that completely disbands my thought....

BCS 4 & 5 Star Breakdowns

I'm not a statistician, but that looks like a correlation to me.

 

[Tux]

The star worshippers are not going to like reading this.

Character, Not Stars, Key To Vols Recruiting

"We don't bring up stars," Joseph said. "We let the tape and our eyes speak for themselves. A lot of great players don't have a lot of stars. I will say this: The guys we have committed and will get committed will be four- and five-star people.

Star systems are for those with nothing better to do than throw their money at magazine star system reports. It is all that they understand about the evaluation of talent.

 

[Volru]

MDBJJC, did you see the percentages earlier? Bama just DID win the NC with a team that had 57% 2-3* players. Honestly, that is pretty clear and compelling evidence that you can rely heavily on 3* players and be very, very good.

Great, if that was what the chart said. The overall percentages go back to 2002. Alabama's recruiting classes involved in last year's championship had a much higher percentage of 4 and 5 star players.

It is this simple, we are not going to compete for championships with second tier GA recruits. Funny how the 4 and 5 star recruits don't matter when we aren't getting any of them. Here is a novel idea: How about some 4 and 5 star players AND some character too. Where does Adams get off saying you can't have both?

 

[MrBamSeydu]

I'm back on my star watcher scolding tour.

Recruiting is about filling your needs with the best possible players for your team.

Defining best for your team and filling your team's needs does not necessarily mean you have to recruit the most talented players in the nation. Talent does not always translate to success on the field.

There have been numerous value denominators ascribed to talented players over the years, from blue-chips to star ratings. The good coaches don't need to see star ratings to evaluate talent. They evaluate talent in person and on film. They don't let some magazine recruiting guru's word dictate their livelihood. Of course, some coaches have and have lost their jobs because of it-(think Fulmer).

Now many coaches will use the magazine star ratings to strengthen their position among fans(think Fulmer). However, when your on the field results do not match up with the hype of the star ratings (think Fulmer), then the coach has to lean heavily on his recruiting ratings until fans have had enough and is eventually fired (think Fulmer).

Coaches know who the best talents are. The good coaches will also look for kids who are coachable, who are still growing and developing, and will fit into his system. That is just as important as the talent portion of the equation.

The beloved stars system is no guarantee to winning. Just look at the last classes of Fulmer. Look at Lane Kiffin's only class at UT. Look at how many of the "5 star" and "4 star" recruits who flopped on the field, quit the team, or were kicked off the team.You could field a "5 and 4 star" all-star team from that distinguished group of failures.

I've read many fans criticizing Derek Dooley for recruiting the kids that he has gotten commitments from because they are not "5 and 4 star" players. What those critical fans are not in on and don't understand is that the coaches know who fits their system, if they are a diamond in the rough because they are still developing their skills, or if they are coachable and team players. You are going to have to trust the coaches to make those decisions. I do trust Derek Dooley, just based on the way he processes information and makes decisions. He is definitely a astute and judicious person.

I have to shake my heads at those who want to criticize based on what some magazine guru sells them on.

USC, Florida, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama.

Those are basically the top 5 programs right now.

Look at their recruiting. Stars matter. There isn't even an argument to that. Noone ever said it was an exact science. People bust. I'll take a 5* over a 3* every single time.

 

[MrBamSeydu]

The star worshippers are not going to like reading this.

Character, Not Stars, Key To Vols Recruiting

Star systems are for those with nothing better to do than throw their money at magazine star system reports. It is all that they understand about the evaluation of talent.

This is the same thing Fulmer did, apparently. Coaches who think they're better at scouting than anyone else in the world and take a load of 3* recruits to try and prove it will almost always fall flat on their face. The reason Dooley is doing this right now is to make sure we get guys who will STAY at UT and not try and leave. Player defections have killed us the last 3-4 years. If Dooley is still taking classes full of 3* players 3-4 years from now I guarantee.... I GUARANTEE.... he will not last long as the head coach. I totally understand why we're doing it right now, but eventually we have to get premier athletes and not just good ol boys who will give it their all.

To end this discussion quickly, would you rather have our 2010 signing class (which was solid, according to the rankings) or USC's 2010 signing class (which is basically all 4 and 5 star players)?

Would you rather have Crowell or Tom Smith? Would you rather have Rome or Downs?

Give me a break.

 

[sjt18]

Great, if that was what the chart said. The overall percentages go back to 2002. Alabama's recruiting classes involved in last year's championship had a much higher percentage of 4 and 5 star players.

I am pretty sure that chart was the composition of last year's teams.

It is this simple, we are not going to compete for championships with second tier GA recruits.

Good thing there's plenty of talent in GA and it does NOT appear that UT is getting second tier talent from there.

Funny how the 4 and 5 star recruits don't matter when we aren't getting any of them.

It matters. Most of the guys who are highly rated go on to have good careers unless they blow themselves up with grades or behavior issues or both. However, the recruiting svcs do NOT find all of the players destined for greatness. They miss 2-3* players every year that have great talent and end up great players.

Here is a novel idea: How about some 4 and 5 star players AND some character too. Where does Adams get off saying you can't have both?

Well, it seems like the staff is going after alot of guys like that. It also seems they've turned away from highly rated guys for no apparent reason... It is safe to assume they've learned something they didn't like or have gotten word that there's no interest. Very likely that there are quite a few of both.

The question comes down to this: When you have a choice between a high risk 4-5* player with high risk factors and a 3* player with slightly less talent but good grades and character.... which one do you take?

Fulmer and Kiffin took the high risk players. UT's retention of those highly rated players is abysmal.

The kids that you describe are well known by their instate schools and will be their prime targets. There is a small subset of 4-5* players who are willing to leave their home states. There's a smaller sample still out of that group that have high character. UT is competing for that small group.

IF DD manages to establish a reputation of "class" instead of thuggery at UT then the chances of getting those ideal 4-5* recruits will rise significantly.

 

[Tux]

The irony is that Fulmer heavily relied on magazine gurus and their star ratings for his job security and recruiting efforts the last 4-5 years of his reign at UT. He did a poor job of evaluating talent himself down that stretch.

The best coaches recruit based on their own evaluations and not rely on outsiders to do their work for them. Why would a top coach rely on the some magazine writer for his evaluation of talent as many of you suggest? That is career suicide.

Randy Shannon On Miami Recruiting Efforts

I've never been a believer in the star system used to rate recruits. Just because a player has a certain number of stars -- or offers -- doesn't necessarily mean he'll become a superstar in college.

Derek Dooley and his staff, are saying the same thing. Ed Orgeron and other recruiting giants hold the same opinions.

Star worshipping is for those who don't really under the the game of football and this is a way for them to inject themselves into the game.

Did football even exist before the advent of the star systems?

 

[MrBamSeydu]

MDBJJC, did you see the percentages earlier? Bama just DID win the NC with a team that had 57% 2-3* players. Honestly, that is pretty clear and compelling evidence that you can rely heavily on 3* players and be very, very good.

Why was Fulmer fired then? Was he just a bad coach all of a sudden? Or did his talent-level drop off? Look at his 2008 signing class.

If we wanted to stick with 3* / high-character rosters we shouldn't have ever fired Fulmer.

In the end winning is what matters and that's the truth.

 

[MrBamSeydu]

Randy Shannon On Miami Recruiting Efforts

I'm sure he ignored the fact that Seantrel Henderson was the #1 overall prospect.

 

[sjt18]

This is the same thing Fulmer did, apparently. Coaches who think they're better at scouting than anyone else in the world and take a load of 3* recruits to try and prove it will almost always fall flat on their face.

You mean like Kiffin and Co who also had Worley on top of the QB board in spite of Rivals calling him a 5.5 3*? The svcs who award stars do not comprise everyone "else in the world". Coaches who watch hours of film and research players thoroughly before offering them ARE better at scouting than the recruiting svcs.

The reason Dooley is doing this right now is to make sure we get guys who will STAY at UT and not try and leave.

Really? He said that somewhere? I have not read it. I have read very consistently that he and his staff do not listen to hype. They evaluate players based on what the see.

If Dooley is still taking classes full of 3* players 3-4 years from now I guarantee.... I GUARANTEE.... he will not last long as the head coach.

if DD is taking players now who cannot contribute at a championship level then he won't be getting a chance to do differently in 4 years IMO.

Would you rather have Crowell or Tom Smith?

That may be closer than you apparently want to think. Smith has been very, very productive against some of the best competition in the country. He has the right size and power.

I would love to have Crowell too but Smith isn't just completely outclassed by him. That said, what I would really like is a crystal ball to see if Smith will become an Arian Foster or Hardesty and whether Crowell becomes a G Riggs or worse a Coker.

Would you rather have Rome or Downs?

.

Very similar measurables. Rome has been coached and developed much more than Downs. Downs is far better academically and is not likely to be lost to behavior issues.

Downs looks to me to have more unrealized potential than Rome does. Not suggesting he has a higher upside... just that he has more to be developed that could turn him into an outstanding TE.

 

[sjt18]

Why was Fulmer fired then? Was he just a bad coach all of a sudden? Or did his talent-level drop off? Look at his 2008 signing class.

If we wanted to stick with 3* / high-character rosters we shouldn't have ever fired Fulmer.

Go back and look at his classes again. The rankings completely and utterly disprove your point. He GOT the highly rated guys with questionable character. The only class he got that was poorly ranked had NOTHING to do with him being fired. It had several "underrated" players who have been or will be contributors: Poole, Bohannon, Johnson, Hughes, Lathers, D Thomas, and Lathers. The "gems" of that class are gone- EJAW, Bailey, and Douglas.

The ridiculous attrition in the 07 class is well documented.

Fulmer tried to do it PRECISELY as you suggest and that contributed to his demise... that and the game DID pass him by.

In the end winning is what matters and that's the truth.

Yep. And if DD's strategy on recruiting fails... he'll leave a good base of players for the next guy.