Smokey X
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The NCAA should have done this before, now there is blood in the water. Not going to go well at this point.If the NCAA were smart, which they are not, they would take this decision and back off and say to all the conferences, lets get together and work on a comprehensive agreement to manage the NIL and transfer portal going forward. If they miss this opportunity its going to get crazy.
Agree. Probably should’ve wrote a better post on my end. Simply saying I don’t think Mars or anyone believes the ncaa even has that high of a chance in the case. I know he was doing a broad sample of all cases instead of estimating the specific chances in this case.He wasn't estimating their chances. He was showing historical data on winning/losing a case if an injunction has been filed. He's not pontificating in this tweet
They can get any antitrust exemption that Congress passes (I don't think it'll pass), it's Congress's law and they can exempt them on whatever terms they (Congress) want. I think a conditional/partial exemption would have the best chance, basically giving them power to enforce rules as long as certain conditions were met (for example health insurance and some kind of profit sharing arrangement).They aren't going to get an anti-trust exemption based on not paying athletes.
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted. I would add though the ncaa has been trying to get an antitrust exemption for a while; I don’t see that happening. NCAA may not go away but I think the existing incarnation will change so much.For those not following closely, this is not a court case victory. It is a prior injunction victory, a "judge, what do we do while this case is going through the system, is it okay for us to use NIL freely in the interim?" "Judge: yep, that's fine, TN and VA. NCAA, you don't do anything to get in their way for now."
But the court case itself is still to come. It could take months. Maybe years. And whatever the outcome, it could probably be appealed. Meaning even more months or years.
But for now, Nico is free and clear, UT is free and clear, the whole damn states of Tennessee and Virginia are free and clear while the case proceeds.
Let's assume for a moment that the final court decision will match the tone and direction of this prior injunction (as seems very likely to happen). Namely, that the NCAA can not, in any way, anywhere, ever, touch players and NIL cooperatives.
So what happens then?
Well, the NCAA would like the US Congress to step in and establish law. But Congress are (a) notoriously slow, (b) very risk averse when it comes to actually leading the nation, and (c) badly divided. So they're never going to save the NCAA's day.
The only thing left for the NCAA to do is lead/host a summit of the member institutions (the colleges and conferences) to try to build some wall between the pristine, debutante world of college athletics, and the grubby, hands-on, dirty world of professional sports.
How?
I think the current model can continue to work indefinitely. For decades to come. I mean, the world where NIL collectives are not formally, legally, or financially linked to a university, though in practice the two work together as needed. Student athletes are still student athletes, on campus. Off campus, in their dealings with others, they're free to be professionals, and to be paid for being college stars (their "NIL").
And everyone knows that barrier is about as solid as a chicken wire fence. Nevertheless, the formal separation keeps one thing one thing, and the other thing the other thing.
And they co-exist. As they do right now. In other words, we muddle through, for as far as the eye can see.
That's where I think we're honestly going, at the end of today. Nothing wrong with that.
Go Vols!
p.s. The NCAA isn't going anywhere. They play a LOT of different roles for college sports, recruiting enforcement being only one. If the NCAA didn't exist, we'd have to create one, to do all that stuff.
The NCAA is not winning, whether it’s a slow roast or quick burn. If they were smart they would announce defeat and try to work toward a fair and straightforward system. Their claws have been cut down to the quick. Do they want to work with the major conferences or fight em. If they try to fight at this point the big boys will just leave and form a new governing body. For the NCAA to save any face they beat drop this and work with the schools. There days of supreme rule are over one way or the other. GBOFor those not following closely, this is not a court case victory. It is a prior injunction victory, a "judge, what do we do while this case is going through the system, is it okay for us to use NIL freely in the interim?" "Judge: yep, that's fine, TN and VA. NCAA, you don't do anything to get in their way for now."
But the court case itself is still to come. It could take months. Maybe years. And whatever the outcome, it could probably be appealed. Meaning even more months or years.
But for now, Nico is free and clear, UT is free and clear, the whole damn states of Tennessee and Virginia are free and clear while the case proceeds.
Let's assume for a moment that the final court decision will match the tone and direction of this prior injunction. Namely, that the NCAA can not, in any way, anywhere, ever, touch players and NIL cooperatives.
So what happens then?
Well, the NCAA would like the US Congress to step in and establish law. But Congress are (a) notoriously slow, (b) very risk averse when it comes to actually leading the nation, and (c) badly divided. So they're never going to save the NCAA's day.
The only thing left for the NCAA to do is lead/host a summit of the member institutions (the colleges and conferences) to try to build some wall between the pristine, virginal world of college athletics, and the grubby, hands-on, dirty world of professional sports.
How?
I think the current model can continue to work indefinitely. For decades to come. I mean, the world where NIL collectives are not formally, legally, or financially linked to a university, though in practice the two work together as needed. Student athletes are still student athletes, on campus. Off campus, in their dealings with others, they're free to be professionals, and to be paid for being college stars (their "NIL").
And everyone knows that barrier is about as solid as a chicken wire fence. Nevertheless, the formal separation keeps one thing one thing, and the other thing the other thing.
And they co-exist. As they do right now. In other words, we muddle through, for as far as the eye can see.
That's where I think we're honestly going, at the end of today. Nothing wrong with that.
Go Vols!
p.s. The NCAA isn't going anywhere. They play a LOT of different roles for college sports, recruiting enforcement being only one. If the NCAA didn't exist, we'd have to create one, to do all that stuff.
It certainly is possible. Entirely possible that the NCAA will drop the court case (and any ongoing NIL-focused investigations they may have running) before the case even works its way through.The NCAA is not winning, whether it’s a slow roast or quick burn. If they were smart they would announce defeat and try to work toward a fair and straightforward system. Their claws have been cut down to the quick. Do they want to work with the major conferences or fight em. If they try to fight at this point the big boys will just leave. For the NCAA to save any face they beat drop this and work with the schools. There days of supreme rule are over one way or the other. GBO
For it to happen, they would need to get POLITICIANS to back their very unpopular hand...in this election year.I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted. I would add though the ncaa has been trying to get an antitrust exemption for a while; I don’t see that happening. NCAA may not go away but I think the existing incarnation will change so much.
Without making the players fully paid and letting them unionize, there's no chance that happening, IMHO.They can get any antitrust exemption that Congress passes (I don't think it'll pass), it's Congress's law and they can exempt them on whatever terms they (Congress) want. I think a conditional/partial exemption would have the best chance, basically giving them power to enforce rules as long as certain conditions were met (for example health insurance and some kind of profit sharing arrangement).
Risk/reward. Sometimes even if chances are low the potential gain is worth the capital expense. Idk that it’s the case here; I would hope their lawyers have a better estimation of their chances than me.It certainly is possible. Entirely possible that the NCAA will drop the court case (and any ongoing NIL-focused investigations they may have running) before the case even works its way through.
In fact, you and I both believe the NCAA would be smart to do that. Save money, time, and get on with the rest of their amended lives.
But no one ever accused the NCAA of being smart. So I'm not holding my breath.
Go Vols!
I suspect that 16% includes cases that have damning evidence they didn’t know about come up in discovery.Tom is way smarter than me but I think he’s overestimating the NCAA’s chances. I don’t think they have any chance of winning long term.
They can't do that, it violates antitrust. Congress giving them some sort of exemption is their only chance. Having to depend on Congress to save you is about the most desperate situation possible but there will be no real rules in CFB until they do.If the NCAA were smart, which they are not, they would take this decision and back off and say to all the conferences, lets get together and work on a comprehensive agreement to manage the NIL and transfer portal going forward. If they miss this opportunity its going to get crazy.