Tennessee #8 in CFP

#126
#126
VolCalls said:
I agree, I think Georgia will end up as the #2 seed by winning the SECCG.
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#2 UGA or TX vs #3 SMU or Miami or Clemson
#1 Oregon vs #4 Boise St.
Bama has already moved up to #13 (14 with automatic qualifiers)
I think they will move things around to keep from having 1st round rematches like Tennessee-Georgia or Indiana-Ohio State, Penn St Ohio State or if Oregon lost the B1GCG Oregon-Boise State

ACC 1 or 2 Teams
B12 1 Team
Group of 5 1 Team (Boise State)
Independents 1 Team Notre Dame
B1G 4 teams
SEC 3 or 4 teams

SCAR will crush Clemson this week
I think Miami gets spanked by SMU in ACCCG, either way at least 2 losses for one.
Miami might lose to Syracuse this week
Worst case scenario for ACC is that Miami loses to Syracuse, SCAR Crushes Clemson and Clemson edges SMU in ACCCG.
With a week like last week, I could see SCAR sliding in at the 12 spot. They would need help from Auburn though.
 
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#127
#127
deatojl said:
I think the best case scenario for us is for notre dame and Miami to lose this weekend, South Carolina to beat Clemson, A&M to beat Texas then lose to Georgia in the SECCG. In that case, assuming we beat Vandy, it would likely look like this:
1. Oregon/Ohio St winner
2. Georgia
3. Clemson/SMU
4. Boise St
5. Oregon/Ohio St loser
6. Penn St
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. Indiana
10. SMU(if they lose ACC)/Notre Dame
11.South Carolina
12. Big 12 champ
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No way South Carolina gets in over Bama.
 
#128
#128
Good2bavol said:
Scenario 1) TX beats A&M and then beats GA. GA is out and we host game
Scenario 2) TX loses to A&M and A&M beats GA. GA is out, TX moves to 6-8 and TN plays on road.
Scenario 3) TX beats A&M and loses to GA. GA gets bye, TX moves to 6-8 and TN plays on road.

There is not a scenario where TN plays GA again in the fist round.
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I think Scenario 4 happens: A&M beats Texas and Georgia pounds A&M to get the #2 seed.
 
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#129
#129
HuntlandVolinColo said:
#2 UGA or TX vs #3 SMU or Miami or Clemson
#1 Oregon vs #4 Boise St.
Bama has already moved up to #13 (14 with automatic qualifiers)
I think they will move things around to keep from having 1st round rematches like Tennessee-Georgia or Indiana-Ohio State, Penn St Ohio State or if Oregon lost the B1GCG Oregon-Boise State

ACC 1 or 2 Teams
B12 1 Team
Group of 5 1 Team (Boise State)
Independents 1 Team Notre Dame
B1G 4 teams
SEC 3 or 4 teams

SCAR will crush Clemson this week
I think Miami gets spanked by SMU in ACCCG, either way at least 2 losses for one.
Miami might lose to Syracuse this week
Worst case scenario for ACC is that Miami loses to Syracuse, SCAR Crushes Clemson and Clemson edges SMU in ACCCG.
With a week like last week, I could see SCAR sliding in at the 12 spot. They would need help from Auburn though.
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If Miami loses to Cuse, Clemson goes to the ACC Title game. So in terms of Clemson's playoff chances, their game vs USC is meaningless. Miami has all the pressure on them.
 
#130
#130
Shrimp&Grits&Vols said:
I think we want Texas to beat Ga. Everything else chalk we get 8 seed and host GA moves to 10. I don’t think they match UT vs Ga first round
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The thought that the committee would penalize Georgia for losing the SEC Title game and disregarding a head to head to win over Tennessee by some on here are hilarious.
 
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#135
#135
Tons of things can happen to change all of this. Miami could get beat in Syracuse, Clemson could get beat by USC. That would drop Clemson down but put them in the ACC championship with SMU where an SMU win might leave them as the only ACC team in the playoff..
ND at USC could easily be an upset. Ga tech could really change the world with an upset of UGA and that is not that unrealistic. Maryland vs Penn St is interesting only because I think Penn State is horrible. And as bad as Michigan has been the OSU game is still a rivalry and nothing would salvage UMs season like an upset. Tex/Tex AM is a toss up. While none of these are likely, the chance of NONE of them happening is even more remote. Almost no chance that our seeding will not improve assuming we win and look solid this weekend.
 
#137
#137
deatojl said:
I think the best case scenario for us is for notre dame and Miami to lose this weekend, South Carolina to beat Clemson, A&M to beat Texas then lose to Georgia in the SECCG. In that case, assuming we beat Vandy, it would likely look like this:
1. Oregon/Ohio St winner
2. Georgia
3. Clemson/SMU
4. Boise St
5. Oregon/Ohio St loser
6. Penn St
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. Indiana
10. SMU(if they lose ACC)/Notre Dame
11.South Carolina
12. Big 12 champ
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South Carolina isn’t getting in over Alabama.
 
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#138
#138
JMSqb11 said:
Well in that scenario, you are saying the CFP will view a 2 loss Texas being in the same pool of non conference champ teams of Ohio State (assuming Oregon wins Big Ten for simplicity sake), Penn State, Notre Dame....... If Texas loses, they would likely fall to the line of getting the last host seed. That puts them behind Ohio State, and 1 loss Penn State and 1 loss Notre Dame.... That would be the minimum.... Tennessee has better record and resume than Texas. And based on the bipolar attitude of CFP tonight said they are ranking teams on who they view as better

At minimum with Texas losing in Atlanta, that means the following:

1- Oregon
2- Georgia
3- Miami
4- Boise State
5- Ohio State
6- Notre Dame
7- Penn State
8- Tennessee / Texas
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Tennessee doesn’t have a better record than Texas. Tennessee will not have a better record than Texas in any scenario. If Texas loses to A&M, then they would have the same record and a better record against common opponents. If Texas loses to Georgia, then Texas has a better record and still have a win over a team that beat us, which we couldn’t claim. So you’d have to hope our Bama win is enough to cancel out the fact they beat a team that beat us.

The best likely scenario for Tennessee is Texas winning out and USC beating Notre Dame. That could result in us hosting Indiana in the 7-10 game, slotted to play Texas in round 2 at a neutral site.
 
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#141
#141
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Tennessee doesn’t have a better record than Texas. Tennessee will not have a better record than Texas in any scenario. If Texas loses to A&M, then they would have the same record and a better record against common opponents. If Texas loses to Georgia, then Texas has a better record and still have a win over a team that beat us, which we couldn’t claim. So you’d have to hope our Bama win is enough to cancel out the fact they beat a team that beat us.

The best likely scenario for Tennessee is Texas winning out and USC beating Notre Dame. That could result in us hosting Indiana in the 7-10 game, slotted to play Texas in round 2 at a neutral site.
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Texas losing this week means they'd finish 10-2 with zero ranked wins and Tennessee finishing 10-2 with ranked wins. That is a better record than Texas'

Texas losing in Atlanta means they would drop to a minimum at the last host seed line since they wouldn't be DQ'd from Auto Bye seeds.

11-2 Texas isn't getting ranked over a 11-2 Ohio State or 12-1 Oregon as they would be locked into the #5 Seed
11-2 Texas isn't getting ranked over a 11-1 Notre Dame as they would be locked into 6 or 7 Seed
11-2 Texas isn't getting ranked over 11-1 Penn State as they would be locked into 6 or 7 Seed
11-2 Texas best case if they lose in Atlanta would be the final host seed. Worst case is they would be traveling and Tennessee would get final host seed
 
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#142
#142
JMSqb11 said:
To put it simply, unless you think Texas is going to run the table and beat A&M and Georgia in back to back weeks in what are virtually road games, please quit worrying about a rematch in Athens.
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Even then something else will happen that will give the committee a pretense to move Georgia up or flip us with Indiana or something. Then will avoid rematches in the first round if at all possible.
 
#147
#147
JMSqb11 said:
Texas losing this week means they'd finish 10-2 with zero ranked wins and Tennessee finishing 10-2 with ranked wins. That is a better record than Texas'
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No, that is the same record as Texas. You could argue the resume is better than that of Texas, but the record is the exact same. There is no argument to say our record is better, because 10-2 = 10-2.

Also if you are going to say we have more than one ranked win, then you have to say Texas has the same amount of ranked wins as us. We both have 3 wins over teams that were ranked when the game was played. We have one win over a team currently ranked. They have one win over a team that beat us.
 
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#149
#149
I’m always for GT when we don’t play them…if they upset Georgia we might move up a slot and get to host…we would still need Texas to beat Georgia and send them to the Music City Bowl…
 
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