The Foreign Trade Thread

#301
#301
1972 Grad said:
So, you have no problem with Edelbrock spending tons of dollars on research and development on say...….their Air Gap intake manifolds, and the Chinese coming out with a copy soon afterward and undercutting them on price. Or, Callaway or Taylor made developing a new state of the art driver, and having the Chinese have a copy of it within weeks and undercutting them, making it harder for the golf club companies to recoup design and development costs? The consumer ultimately pays for that.
Click to expand...

No, I do have a problem with that.
 
#302
#302
n_huffhines said:
Talk about crushing the economy. You can't just cut off our supply of cheap labor. You have to legalize the entry of more of them or ignore the problem. Interestingly, Milton Friedman said illegal immigration is the perfect solution, because you need the labor but you don't want the immigrants to have access to the wide array of government benefits.

We spend all this time worrying about how bad the illegal problem is....illegal immigration has been decreasing significantly for like a decade. 16 years ago, when nobody was worrying to death over illegals, the economy was running fine, etc. and we had a whopping 5-10k crossing the border illegally every day. Now we're worried into a frenzy about a caravan of that size. Boomers were so much tougher 16 years ago.
Click to expand...
I agree with this to some extent. Can't just have an unlimited supply though. There's an equilibrium.
 
#303
#303
So the illegal immigrants don't have access to a wide array of government benefits? That's not the narrative. And Uncle Milton apparently isn't factoring in the children of the illegals that are being born on US soil.
 
#304
#304
Thunder Good-Oil said:
So the illegal immigrants don't have access to a wide array of government benefits? That's not the narrative. And Uncle Milton apparently isn't factoring in the children of the illegals that are being born on US soil.
Click to expand...

They have access to some of them, yes, but not as much as documented immigrants/citizens. Why do you assume Milton wasn't factoring in the children?
 
#305
#305
Velo Vol said:
I agree with this to some extent. Can't just have an unlimited supply though. There's an equilibrium.
Click to expand...

It's limited by what the market will bear. Illegal immigration declined because of the economic downturn.

FT_16.09.21_unauthorized.png
 
#306
#306
Which Chinese imports are critical to the US economy?

I wouldn't mind continuing to take their steel below the production cost if it didn't result in US manufacturing facilities being forced out of business.
 
#307
#307
n_huffhines said:
They have access to some of them, yes, but not as much as documented immigrants/citizens. Why do you assume Milton wasn't factoring in the children?
Click to expand...

If he says illegals don't consume benefits he must be excluding other costs. Incarceration isn't a benefit but costs tens of thousands per inmate per year. Maybe educating an illegal's child isn't a benefit to the illegal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Carl Pickens
#309
#309
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Which Chinese imports are critical to the US economy?

I wouldn't mind continuing to take their steel below the production cost if it didn't result in US manufacturing facilities being forced out of business.
Click to expand...

Over half of our imports are input goods. Meaning they are cogs in the wheels of US manufacturing facilities and businesses.

"Nearly all imports that are not raw materials are appropriately classified as intermediate components. Thus, the percentage of American imports that together comprise the category “intermediate components or raw materials” is far larger than 53%. Indeed, it’s likely well over 95%. Nearly all American imports – even of goods formally classified as consumer goods [and as cars and food in the chart above] – are inputs into the production of producers in America.

Consider, for example, a truckload of individually packaged bed linen imported into America from China. And to make matters simpler that no American-supplied cotton or other inputs, at any stage of production, went into making these packages of bed linen. Suppose, reasonably, that these packages of bed linen will be offered for sale to final consumers in Walmart stores throughout the United States.

So when Wal-Mart imports packaged bed linen, it does not buy these goods as consumer goods; it buys them as intermediate goods – goods that are used by Wal-Mart as inputs into producing the final consumer service that we might call “shopping convenience.” Only by supplying this latter service – shopping convenience – does Wal-Mart earn profits. From Wal-Mart’s perspective, imports from China of packaged bed linen are inputs used to produce its own output no less so than are Wal-Mart’s delivery trucks, warehouses, cash registers, advertising, and corporate stationery"

Nearly all imports, even consumer goods, are inputs for US firms, retailers and factories - AEI
 
#310
#310
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Which Chinese imports are critical to the US economy?

I wouldn't mind continuing to take their steel below the production cost if it didn't result in US manufacturing facilities being forced out of business.
Click to expand...

???

I think WTO rules ban dumping steel.
 
#312
#312
So the rest of the world markets close below 2.5 to 3.5% and our midday valuations are down around 2% but yet our markets close at -.15, +.42, and -.31%.

So I’m guessing that all you rubes screaming the end is near will be coming back saying nah?

The market will eventually go down... then it will go back up!... then sadly back down... but then back up! If you can’t take the heat get outta the kitchen.
 
#313
#313
NorthDallas40 said:
So the rest of the world markets close below 2.5 to 3.5% and our midday valuations are down around 2% but yet our markets close at -.15, +.42, and -.31%.

So I’m guessing that all you rubes screaming the end is near will be coming back saying nah?

The market will eventually go down... then it will go back up!... then sadly back down... but then back up! If you can’t take the heat get outta the kitchen.
Click to expand...
I did a little buying today.
 
#314
#314
I did too. It was a surprising day for my largest exposure. Started reeeeeeally bad and ended up positive, so I'm like Mikey (I like it!)
 
#316
#316
NorthDallas40 said:
So the rest of the world markets close below 2.5 to 3.5% and our midday valuations are down around 2% but yet our markets close at -.15, +.42, and -.31%.

So I’m guessing that all you rubes screaming the end is near will be coming back saying nah?

The market will eventually go down... then it will go back up!... then sadly back down... but then back up! If you can’t take the heat get outta the kitchen.
Click to expand...

Funny, I don't remember you making this point and calling peope rubes in the threads celebrating past Trump stock market triumphs. But you are right, it's speculation and not a reliable reflection of economic health.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mick
#317
#317
n_huffhines said:
Funny, I don't remember you making this point and calling peope rubes in the threads celebrating past Trump stock market triumphs. But you are right, it's speculation and not a reliable reflection of economic health.
Click to expand...
It's driven by corporate profits, inflation, and expectations, and speculation plays into all of that..
 
  • Like
Reactions: 0nelilreb
#320
#320
n_huffhines said:
Funny, I don't remember you making this point and calling peope rubes in the threads celebrating past Trump stock market triumphs. But you are right, it's speculation and not a reliable reflection of economic health.
Click to expand...
How about we consider a sample rate larger than an 8 hour trading window eh huff?

The market is still up like what 25% from when Trump took office? After Barry told us to get used to the new 2% growth norm?

The market is going to go down and stay down eventually on Trumps watch. The grading will be on enabling a swift recovery, not shrugging and saying sorry get used to it.
 
#321
#321
n_huffhines said:
Funny, I don't remember you making this point and calling peope rubes in the threads celebrating past Trump stock market triumphs. But you are right, it's speculation and not a reliable reflection of economic health.
Click to expand...

The economy is doing fine, the stock market is suffering from computer trading frenzy and talking heads explaining about how Trump is ruining the economy by sticking it to China. Some day you'll thank Trump for not cowering down to the Chinese trade practices. On second thought, no you won't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 0nelilreb, hog88 and 1972 Grad
#322
#322
NorthDallas40 said:
How about we consider a sample rate larger than an 8 hour trading window eh huff?

The market is still up like what 25% from when Trump took office? After Barry told us to get used to the new 2% growth norm?

The market is going to go down and stay down eventually on Trumps watch. The grading will be on enabling a swift recovery, not shrugging and saying sorry get used to it.
Click to expand...

Why are you saying this to me? I haven't been touting stock market numbers.

Why is it going to go down and stay down?

Trump has inflated GDP by cutting taxes and increasing spending. He put gdp growth on your grandchildren's credit card. #winning
 
#323
#323
n_huffhines said:
Why are you saying this to me? I haven't been touting stock market numbers.

Why is it going to go down and stay down?

Trump has inflated GDP by cutting taxes and increasing spending. He put gdp growth on your grandchildren's credit card. #winning
Click to expand...
Short term stay down. Drop 15-20% and stay there for some time. Weeks or months.

The time it “goes down and stays down” none of what we type here will matter.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top