The (many) indictments of Donald Trump

[BigOrangeMojo]

I disagree .... but we'll see. He is guilty as hell. The evidence was very damning.

He's guilty AF but the calculation for the fine is not connected to economic reality....

Fine should have probably should have been 50-75 bps on the loans and no recapture from Ferry Point/Old Post Office sale...

Each 25 bps is 9 million.

 

[hog88]

I disagree .... but we'll see. He is guilty as hell. The evidence was very damning.

I’m not disputing his guilt. The judgment is ludicrous.

 

[tvolsfan]

He is guilty as all living hell.

Does that matter anymore?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I’m not disputing his guilt. The judgment is ludicrous.

If you view Trump like a corporate bond in early 2015.

Moving down from A to BBB is 90-100 bps
Moving down from AA to A is 30-40 bps

A fair punishment would be assuming Trump should have been viewed as the lowest investment grade debt (BBB). WF treats his mortgage as investment grade still.

Dropping Trump from A to BBB would have been a ~$35M fine. That is what feels about right here....

 

[MontyPython]

Trump is scum. Pure and simple.

Any supporters of his at this point are brain dead or gullible chumps.

 

[RockyTop85]

If you view Trump like a corporate bond in early 2015.

Moving down from A to BBB is 90-100 bps
Moving down from AA to A is 30-40 bps

A fair punishment would be assuming Trump should have been viewed as the lowest investment grade debt (BBB). WF treats his mortgage as investment grade still.

Dropping Trump from A to BBB would have been a ~$35M fine. That is what feels about right here....

Wasn’t the amount of the judgment based on what he made off the fraudulent transactions?

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

If you view Trump like a corporate bond in early 2015.

Moving down from A to BBB is 90-100 bps
Moving down from AA to A is 30-40 bps

A fair punishment would be assuming Trump should have been viewed as the lowest investment grade debt (BBB). WF treats his mortgage as investment grade still.

Dropping Trump from A to BBB would have been a ~$35M fine. That is what feels about right here....

Very few Trumpers actually know what happened from 2006-2008 with the big banks. There were multiple hedges on the original loans. In the big scheme of it, a few who knew what to do with the open fraudulent activity that was going on took action. They shorted the whole damn industry.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Wasn’t the amount of the judgment based on what he made off the fraudulent transactions?

$169M was the difference in the interest rate he was charged (with his guarantee) vs what State's expert said an unsecured commercial loan would go for. Essentially a 525 bps difference, which is asinine.

The other 186 million was removing the entirety of his tax gains from selling Ferry Point (60) and Old Post Office (126).

I have significant issues with the logic used for both.

 

[85SugarVol]

It doesn’t require a bond in order to appeal. The bond stays enforcement of the judgment. He can and has appealed without posting the bond. There has been a lot of bad reporting on that.

I caught a segment on CNN last night with 2 legal analysts discussing the case.

One was a defense attorney that was clearly a Team Blue cheerleader, and was practically guffawing over Letitia James trolling Trump on Twitter.

The other was a former federal prosecutor that seemed pretty straightforward and fairly balanced. He stated he saw little chance that the finding would be overturned on appeal.

Do you think that’s the likely outcome, that the finding will stand?
Do you think that the penalty will be reduced?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I caught a segment on CNN last night with 2 legal analysts discussing the case.

One was a defense attorney that was clearly a Team Blue cheerleader, and was practically guffawing over Letitia James trolling Trump on Twitter.

The other was a former federal prosecutor that seemed pretty straightforward and fairly balanced. He stated he saw little chance that the finding would be overturned on appeal.

Do you think that’s the likely outcome, that the finding will stand?
Do you think that the penalty will be reduced?

The finding will be upheld. The penalty will be reduced/settled.

 

[85SugarVol]

The finding will be upheld. The penalty will be reduced/settled.

I think that appears to be the most likely scenario. Was just curious as to how RT sees it.

Appreciate your input on it too.

 

[Jxn Vol]

Trump is scum. Pure and simple.

Any supporters of his at this point are brain dead or gullible chumps.

MontyInchworm, you can’t accuse folks of being brain dead when your president is actually brain dead.

 

[RockyTop85]

I caught a segment on CNN last night with 2 legal analysts discussing the case.

One was a defense attorney that was clearly a Team Blue cheerleader, and was practically guffawing over Letitia James trolling Trump on Twitter.

The other was a former federal prosecutor that seemed pretty straightforward and fairly balanced. He stated he saw little chance that the finding would be overturned on appeal.

Do you think that’s the likely outcome, that the finding will stand?
Do you think that the penalty will be reduced?

I don’t know enough to really say. I really didn’t follow the case that closely because it didn’t really tell me anything that wasn’t already obvious about Trump after he got busted dipping into his charity’s funds for personal expenses. This seemed like another (less bad) thing in that general category.

I guess, in theory, I think it would be difficult for a court to reduce the amount at this point, unless there was some misapplication of law with the way the total was reached. Errors in the way the case was handled could result in vacated judgment. It seems like a factual determination and those don’t tend to get overturned.

Also the kind of gatekeeper judge declined to reduce the bond. I wouldn’t put too much stock in it this early, but if the 5 judge panel doesn’t reduce the bond it’s hard to see the judgment getting reduced. I’m morbidly curious to see what happens if he doesn’t post the bond. I think the AG gets to freeze his assets but I don’t know how far reaching that is.

 

[Jxn Vol]

Bolsheviks going to Bolshevik.

 

[MontyPython]

MontyInchworm, you can’t accuse folks of being brain dead when our president is actually brain dead.

FYP.

I'd take a brain dead President over a riot-leading King-wanna-be any day.

 

[Jxn Vol]

FYP.

I'd take a brain dead President over a riot-leading King-wanna-be any day.

Inchworm, he did not lead BLM riots. And your treasonous president has committed more crimes at our southern border than Clinton did at Epstein Island. Plus your president showered with his daughter.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

It's time to start seizing some assets. No way is he liquid enough to pay it.

Yet he still leads in the polls.

 

[volbound1700]

The issue is all of these "indictments" are just making Trump more popular.

He had 0 "indictments" before he decided to run for President and now he is flooded with them. It looks like politics and not necessarily enforcing the law.

Granted, so is this Biden impeachment fiasco. Both are a waste of our tax paying money. We are $ 33 Trillion in debt but we are still doing these stupid charades.

To be fair, the Republicans opened pandora's box back in the 1990s with the Clinton impeachment. Outside of Andrew Johnson, all other impeachments in the past were not motivated by politics alone but by actual serious crimes as they were intended.

 

[BowlBrother85]

Yet he still leads in the polls.

Meh .... mostly within the margin of error .... and Real Clear Politics shouldn't include those Harris polls, which are just online surveys, where it is possible to vote more than once.

I don't buy that Trump even has a chance.

.... and still waiting for that 2022 midterm Red Tsunami, by the way. LOL.

 

[volbound1700]

Well it is going to the Supreme Court now:

 

[turbovol]

We've got three or four documented corrupt conservatives on the court--men who are happy to accept luxury trips and other financial
favors from their wealthy "friends." And four justices who all lied in their confirmation hearings about Roe V. Wade.

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www.politico.com

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

We've got three or four documented corrupt conservatives on the court--men who are happy to accept luxury trips and other financial
favors from their wealthy "friends." And four justices who all lied in their confirmation hearings about Roe V. Wade.

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www.politico.com

As big of a partisan hack as Alito and Thomas are, Kagan, KBJ, and Sotomayor are far more to the political fringes...

 

[volfanhill]

Meh .... mostly within the margin of error .... and Real Clear Politics shouldn't include those Harris polls, which are just online surveys, where it is possible to vote more than once.

I don't buy that Trump even has a chance.

.... and still waiting for that 2022 midterm Red Tsunami, by the way. LOL.

So you don't trust polls? Thats usually a Trumper move. Odd.

 

[BowlBrother85]

So you don't trust polls? Thats usually a Trumper move. Odd.

I do trust some of them, however ....

1) The ones which I do trust are well within their own stated margin of error in Biden vs Trump head to head ....

and ....

2) The ones which I don't trust were awful in 2022 .... and in most cases, they got it wrong, because they overstated the probability of victory for Republicans. The biggest culprits were the online Harris survey poll and Rasmussen Reports, which heavily favored Republicans. They were wrong all over the map.

 

[BowlBrother85]

As big of a partisan hack as Alito and Thomas are, Kagan, KBJ, and Sotomayor are far more to the political fringes...

That's ridiculous.

It doesn't get any more lunatic political fringe than Thomas's own crazy wife ... and let's face it - he can be bought.