The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

#14,576
#14,576
TheMookieMonster said:
If this was the end of the season, and we were seeding teams based on resume I would agree with his verdict. But I just think it’s extremely silly to have daily rankings and to not have a team that loses by 24 points (and was down by 30 at one point) move a single spot. Tennessee barely lost to Kentucky and we got moved down 4 spots because of that “bad loss” in his eyes. I don’t even think any of the teams he moved ahead of us after that loss had unequivocally better resumes than us either. It just seems like inconsistent application of his own criteria and it reeks of his anti-Tennessee bias that he has always had because he’s a Memphis graduate. He’s had us ranked lower than almost every other basketball writer/pollster all season.
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I haven’t followed it closely this year as far as his reasoning, just read the article and thought it made some sense. Not that I have to agree with it but I do think it’s at least solid/sound reasoning, and that’s better than what many provide. Now if that changes in next update that’s an issue, but as long as that’s his usual criteria ok.

I thought I remembered him being high on us last year, but that could’ve been mistaken, not sure.
 
#14,580
#14,580
bleedingTNorange said:
I haven’t followed it closely this year as far as his reasoning, just read the article and thought it made some sense. Not that I have to agree with it but I do think it’s at least solid/sound reasoning, and that’s better than what many provide. Now if that changes in next update that’s an issue, but as long as that’s his usual criteria ok.

I thought I remembered him being high on us last year, but that could’ve been mistaken, not sure.
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He was higher on us during the Grant Williams years. I think in his position he got taken to the cleaners and relented somewhat on his Tennessee positivity. Memphis can have a way of influencing the way you “see things.”
 
#14,582
#14,582
TheMookieMonster said:
Is there a single college basketball writer that doesn’t suck at their job? Like, just one? How can you cover this sport professionally and not drop Alabama a single spot in your daily rankings after a 25-point thrashing to 11-9 Oklahoma in Norman?

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Hot Take Gary on the scene.
 
#14,590
#14,590
Vols #2 on the ballot for Seth Davis

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Edit: here's some commentary:

• The first order of business was processing Alabama’s wacky week. The Crimson Tide had been making an increasingly strong case for the top spot, but last week they struggled to beat Mississippi State at home by three, and then they got trounced, 93-69, at Oklahoma. My aim as always was to account for the results without overreacting. Alabama’s body of work is still top-five strong, and the reality is the Sooners had a lot more motivation (plus homecourt advantage) in that game. Not to mention the emotional wringer that Alabama has been through as a result of the Darius Miles arrest. If the Tide lose another game or two, their ranking will drop, but for now they get a quasi-mulligan.

• Tennessee leapfrogged Houston because while the Cougars struggled to mount a comeback against Cincinnati at home on Saturday, Tennessee blitzed a very good Texas team, 82-71. Tennessee has moved up to No. 1 on KenPom, so its metrics dictated the jump. In terms of overall resume, Houston’s home loss to Temple is worse (and a lot more recent) than Tennessee’s loss to Colorado in Nashville way back on Nov. 15.

• I was planning on ranking Texas somewhere around No. 13, but when I dug into their numbers, I moved the Longhorns into the top 10. Clearly, there should be no penalty for losing at Tennessee. It’s also worth noting that three of Texas’ four losses were away from home against teams that are ranked above them. The Horns get another test at home Monday night against red-hot Baylor.
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#14,592
#14,592
How does everyone feel about these last 9 conference games?

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I highlighted the 4 games that I'm not real confident in. Alabama and Auburn both lost in their Big 12 matchups to unranked teams on the road. I think A&M especially with that being a short turnaround from playing at Kentucky is going to be a tough game. They don't shoot the 3 much or very well, and they aren't a big team. Buzz does have a deep bench though as they got 10 players seeing 12 or more MPG. And of those 10 7 of them have played in at least 20 games. Their guards do shoot the 3 ball though, Taylor, Dennis, and Radford are all averaging 3.5 or more attempts a game and Radford/Taylor are both shooting 32% or better. So ZZ, Santi, Key, and Mashack will have to make sure to stay with them on the perimeter.

Hopefully the team is getting healthier and this stretch of Sat/Wed games helps them rest a bit more between games. (Georgia was our first Wednesday game in January).

If we get through the Bama/at Kentucky/ at A&M stretch winning 2 I'd be pretty happy, I think we can win all 3 and hope we don't drop another game this season...but you really just never know. I think we'll see Uros/Aidoo a bit more against Florida to help deal with Castleton.
 
#14,593
#14,593
Well I’m hoping our guys realize there’s 10 games to show up to and not just 9 lol


As far as those 10 go, projections basically say 70% chance we lose 2 games or less, 30% change of 3 games or more. I don’t know that I’m quite that optimistic, but that’s what teamrankings website says at least. So 8-2 or better would be very good and imo would have us almost certainly as a 1 seed. 7-3 would be a slight disappointment but would have us finishing at 25-6(14-4), probably on the 2 seed line with an outside shot of a 1 seed still.

You seem to dismiss our next game though, @ Florida…per the metrics they say that’s our 3rd toughest remaining game, now again not sure I totally agree but it’s definitely Top 5 remaining toughest games on paper. If we win this next one suddenly just 2 losses looks much more realistic and would give us a bit more wiggle room. As you mention that 3 game stretch of Bama, @ Kentucky & @ A&M all in a 6 day span is gonna be rough, 1-2 wouldn’t be a shock at all, which is why these next couple are huge.
 
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#14,594
#14,594
Yeah 10 games lol mentally I added 9 to 22 to get to 31 (without counting the 22nd game!)

Not dismissing any game. But only chose to highlight the 4 I was less confident in. Team will have to play focused of course, but despite Florida being 5-3 in conference they've only beaten two teams at 500 or better (Missouri & Georgia). The other 3 victories were LSU, South Carolina, and Mississippi State.

Florida is 9th in conference in Offensive rating and 5th in defensive rating. We're 4th in offensive and 1st in defensive. The reason why I like this matchup is because Castleton is their only true big that sees meaningful minutes and the next biggest player is 6'8" Fudge. They also don't rebound very well (11th in SEC), I would say the only area of potential concern is their Pace, they are currently 4th in the SEC. So that'll be the best SEC team we've faced in that area. Against the other good defensive teams they got held in check pretty well. 61 against Mississippi State (but did win), 63 and 52 against A&M (lost both), 58 against Auburn (and lost).
Guess I'm expecting that Uros and/or Aidoo both have solid bounce back games from their Texas performances.

Of course Florida despite not having great size in the post does have very good size in their guards. Richard is 6'5", Reeves is 6'6", Lofton 6'3", and Bonham is 6'0" so it could be a game where ZZ and Santi struggle a bit offensively.
 
#14,595
#14,595
Yea Florida has the best current KenPom defense we’ve seen this year, so that worries me a bit. It’s in large part to Castleton and that they don’t allow much success from 2, but add in the length of their guards and if they can keep us from scoring 2’s with Castleton down low and their length frustrates our guards into one of those cold shooting nights it’s a bad recipe.
 
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#14,596
#14,596
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea Florida has the best current KenPom defense we’ve seen this year, so that worries me a bit. It’s in large part to Castleton and that they don’t allow much success from 2, but add in the length of their guards and if they can keep us from scoring 2’s with Castleton down low and their length frustrates our guards into one of those cold shooting nights it’s a bad recipe.
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True, but I think we'll see whoever Castleton's guarding brought out up top to run pick and roll like ON/ZZ did against Texas and Disu. I think Barnes may have us force the issue on offense against him early to see if he'll get called for any fouls guarding Uros or ON ( I only mention those two because they seem to be further along offensively than Aidoo/Awaka).

But I also think if Florida tries to help Castleton with doubles we'll need to knock down the outside shot to take advantage. I will say though after seeing what Uros was able to do against Kentucky and Vandy I think he could bother Castleton on both sides of the court. Hoping his limited minutes against Georgia/Texas are allowing him to get back closer to 100%.
 
#14,597
#14,597
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea Florida has the best current KenPom defense we’ve seen this year, so that worries me a bit. It’s in large part to Castleton and that they don’t allow much success from 2, but add in the length of their guards and if they can keep us from scoring 2’s with Castleton down low and their length frustrates our guards into one of those cold shooting nights it’s a bad recipe.
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Wasn't MSU's inside the top 10 at the time? I know it's 11 now.
 
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