The Red Line: Part Deux

[PKT_VOL]

Russia's interest lie in seeing Assad stay in power. If that means gassing a few thousand people, then so be it.

Which is one of the reasons why it is in their interest to make Assad secure/destroy their CW's.

 

[Gannon Goodson]

Which is one of the reasons why it is in their interest to make Assad secure/destroy their CW's.

Is this one of those *wink* moments, or do you actually think Assad and Putin are worried the US will intervene the same way they did in Iraq?

 

[volinbham]

Of that 1,000 tons of CW, if none of it is destroyed/secured, you are eventually going to see that here in the good ole US of A. This idea that we (the US) don't have have nation security interests in Syria is ridiculous.

That said, this is either going to be a huge success or colossal failure for Obama. These things are judged on their outcome, not their public appearance process (as everyone bashing in this thread have criticized) . The one thing that give me hope is that Russia, after public grandstanding (what they are doing now), has similar interests of getting Syria's chemical weapons destroyed/secured.

I'll take exception with the latter. Damage to Obama has already been done; particularly with respect to how other world leaders view him and how much they can rely on him. Even if Assad turns over every bit of CW (which we all know will not happen) the damage to Obama's presence will be real.

Also, you can see it in supporters who are defecting. All but the most partisan folks are critical and disappointed with how this has been handled. He may recover from it to some degree with an amazingly good outcome.

Real damage has already been done and that cannot be substantially reversed.

 

[volinbham]

Which is one of the reasons why it is in their interest to make Assad secure/destroy their CW's.

I believe the reality is that unless Obama wants to go it completely alone (no Congressional approval) then the chance we strike Syria now is very low (assuming no more gas is used). Russia and Syria can drag this out for months and months and in the end Assad will stay in power AND have his CWs.

 

[Gannon Goodson]

I'll take exception with the latter. Damage to Obama has already been done; particularly with respect to how other world leaders view him and how much they can rely on him. Even if Assad turns over every bit of CW (which we all know will not happen) the damage to Obama's presence will be real.

Also, you can see it in supporters who are defecting. All but the most partisan folks are critical and disappointed with how this has been handled. He may recover from it to some degree with an amazingly good outcome.

Real damage has already been done and that cannot be substantially reversed.

Translation from LG: Obama won big; this was his plan all along; his position of strength and moral high ground saved us from a bombing campaign; etc., etc., etc.

 

[utvolpj]

Russia's interest lie in seeing Assad stay in power. If that means gassing a few thousand people, then so be it.

how does that make any sense though? Do you really think a leader would gas forces in retreat when the world has said that's the only thing that would bring them into the fight? There is zero logic behind Assad being behind these attacks

 

[volinbham]

how does that make any sense though? Do you really think a leader would gas forces in retreat when the world has said that's the only thing that would bring them into the fight? There is zero logic behind Assad being behind these attacks

I'm not as skeptical as you. I can see it being a tactical error/mistake but I think the evidence is very strong that Assad forces (whether or not Assad ordered it) delivered the shells.

 

[Velo Vol]

Fun Fact: Assad has enough chemical weapons to kill everyone in Syria.

 

[Velo Vol]

Do you really think a leader would gas forces in retreat when the world has said that's the only thing that would bring them into the fight? There is zero logic behind Assad being behind these attacks

Some are saying he did because he has to (to win).

I'm kind of confused on what's actually happening on the ground.

 

[PKT_VOL]

Is this one of those *wink* moments, or do you actually think Assad and Putin are worried the US will intervene the same way they did in Iraq?

The actions of Russia and Syria in the coming days will tell us. IF, IF Putin believes Obama is dead serious about striking, then you will see things getting done.

Russia also has a reason for the CW's to be secure; Chechnya. This is an out for them as well (on that front).

 

[PKT_VOL]

I believe the reality is that unless Obama wants to go it completely alone (no Congressional approval) then the chance we strike Syria now is very low (assuming no more gas is used). Russia and Syria can drag this out for months and months and in the end Assad will stay in power AND have his CWs.

I think it is a real possibility. I can see Obama striking without Congressional approval, I can see this turning into a colossal failure for him, and I can see it turning into a huge success. Not enough information in the public to know yet.

 

[PKT_VOL]

how does that make any sense though? Do you really think a leader would gas forces in retreat when the world has said that's the only thing that would bring them into the fight? There is zero logic behind Assad being behind these attacks

I'm not as skeptical as you. I can see it being a tactical error/mistake but I think the evidence is very strong that Assad forces (whether or not Assad ordered it) delivered the shells.

This. From what has been released, it seems to have been an over zealous military commander in the field. The calls we (and other intelligence agencies) intercepted was of the Assad command freaking out and yelling at those in the field.

 

[Gannon Goodson]

how does that make any sense though? Do you really think a leader would gas forces in retreat when the world has said that's the only thing that would bring them into the fight? There is zero logic behind Assad being behind these attacks

I'm not fully convinced that Assad ordered these attacks. However, if he did, they're coming from a position of strength at the moment. Moscow is leading Washington by the collar, and that's the way Putin wants it.

 

[MG1968]

This. From what has been released, it seems to have been an over zealous military commander in the field. The calls we (and other intelligence agencies) intercepted was of the Assad command freaking out and yelling at those in the field.

then why all the drama since then? If it was a battlefield error and Assad was just as shocked as the rest of the world, why stand in defiance of the international condemnation?

 

[Gannon Goodson]

The actions of Russia and Syria in the coming days will tell us. IF, IF Putin believes Obama is dead serious about striking, then you will see things getting done.

Russia also has a reason for the CW's to be secure; Chechnya. This is an out for them as well (on that front).

Russia would only have an interest in seeing those weapons secure -- indeed, the entire West as well -- if Assad is overthrown. Russia is in no danger of chemical weapons falling into Chechen hands from an ally. That's the last thing Assad wants.

 

[volinbham]

then why all the drama since then? If it was a battlefield error and Assad was just as shocked as the rest of the world, why stand in defiance of the international condemnation?

good question - the answer is that the red line comment demanded action?

 

[PKT_VOL]

then why all the drama since then? If it was a battlefield error and Assad was just as shocked as the rest of the world, why stand in defiance of the international condemnation?

I would imagine they were scared of the West because:

1) Some of those weapons came from Iraq.
2) They are one of the very few countries not to ratify or ascend to the the CWC.
3) They had already denied that they had CW.
4) The West has been supplying aid to their enemy.
5) Scared of Obama's red line (deny).
6) Not scared of Obama's red line (undercut him domestically and internationally)

Or...

Russia told them not to.

 

[volinbham]

I think it is a real possibility. I can see Obama striking without Congressional approval, I can see this turning into a colossal failure for him, and I can see it turning into a huge success. Not enough information in the public to know yet.

It will be a good month at best before a framework can be worked out and agreed to at the UN. Another couple months to figure out how to get inspectors safe passage through Syria during a civil war. Conventional thinking is that the CW are highly dispersed. Could take 6 months to a year to complete inspections and verify inventories. Then there's the issue of actually securing the CW during a civil war. As a side note, the travels of the inspectors will tip off the rebel factions about the locations of CW stores.

All this relies on good faith efforts by all parties involved. I'd be glad to be wrong but Kerry was right when he said this was impossible

 

[PKT_VOL]

Russia would only have an interest in seeing those weapons secure -- indeed, the entire West as well -- if Assad is overthrown. Russia is in no danger of chemical weapons falling into Chechen hands from an ally. That's the last thing Assad wants.

You would be right if they weren't in the middle of a civil war.

 

[PKT_VOL]

It will be a good month at best before a framework can be worked out and agreed to at the UN. Another couple months to figure out how to get inspectors safe passage through Syria during a civil war. Conventional thinking is that the CW are highly dispersed. Could take 6 months to a year to complete inspections and verify inventories. Then there's the issue of actually securing the CW during a civil war. As a side note, the travels of the inspectors will tip off the rebel factions about the locations of CW stores.

All this relies on good faith efforts by all parties involved. I'd be glad to be wrong but Kerry was right when he said this was impossible

Agreed. It will require international help (and I think there is a shot that they get just that).

I think the rebels know where many of the CW's are. In fact, I'd venture a guess that such is the reason for the urgency displayed.

 

[82_VOL_83]

Of that 1,000 tons of CW, if none of it is destroyed/secured, you are eventually going to see that here in the good ole US of A. This idea that we (the US) don't have have nation security interests in Syria is ridiculous.

That said, this is either going to be a huge success or colossal failure for Obama. These things are judged on their outcome, not their public appearance process (as everyone bashing in this thread have criticized) . The one thing that give me hope is that Russia, after public grandstanding (what they are doing now), has similar interests of getting Syria's chemical weapons destroyed/secured.

That happens the gloves should come off. Until then, let the bastards kill themselves.

 

[82_VOL_83]

The actions of Russia and Syria in the coming days will tell us. IF, IF Putin believes Obama is dead serious about striking, then you will see things getting done.

Russia also has a reason for the CW's to be secure; Chechnya. This is an out for them as well (on that front).

The amount of CW that will surface in this "treaty" will be in direct proportion to the Barry strike......unbelievably small.

 

[hog88]

Russia would only have an interest in seeing those weapons secure -- indeed, the entire West as well -- if Assad is overthrown. Russia is in no danger of chemical weapons falling into Chechen hands from an ally. That's the last thing Assad wants.

This!

We have never been in danger of a chemical attack from any ME strongman. Sadam, Assad, Whatamabooty in Iran all know a chemical attack within the US would lead to their destruction.

It is far more dangerous to let an Assad fall and the CWs be taken over by an Al Qaeda, remember they glorify martyrdom.

 

[Gannon Goodson]

This!

We have never been in danger of a chemical attack from any ME strongman. Sadam, Assad, Whatamabooty in Iran all know a chemical attack within the US would lead to their destruction.

It is far more dangerous to let an Assad fall and the CWs be taken over by an Al Qaeda, remember they glorify martyrdom.

:yes: Which is why we support dictators throughout the region. They are OUR dictators -- and no matter how despicable they may be, they represent stability. When one falls, it creates a power vacuum. Remember how Egypt turned out. What you get in the aftermath is probably going to be worse than the man you spent decades propping up.

Iran says hello. They'll never forgive us for the Shah.

 

[YorkVol]

Of that 1,000 tons of CW, if none of it is destroyed/secured, you are eventually going to see that here in the good ole US of A. This idea that we (the US) don't have have nation security interests in Syria is ridiculous.

That said, this is either going to be a huge success or colossal failure for Obama. These things are judged on their outcome, not their public appearance process (as everyone bashing in this thread have criticized) . The one thing that give me hope is that Russia, after public grandstanding (what they are doing now), has similar interests of getting Syria's chemical weapons destroyed/secured.

After some research it turns out we do have national interests in Syria, as do the Russians.

Our national interests in Syria:
1. Support of Israel=remove chem weapons.
2. Build an oil and natural gas pipeline that by-passes Iran and reduces natural gas coming out of Russia and going to Europe. Syria/Assad have rebuffed the plan, so replacing them with a US/West friendly government is a key US interest=Remove Assad.

Russia's national interests in Syria:
1. Maintain a balance of power vs Israel = Keep Chem Weapons
2. Maintain status quo vis-a-vis Radical Islamic Separatists not being able to overturn governments. This reduces incentive for more Chechnya like events=Keep Assad in power
3. Build an oil pipeline through Iran and control flow of natural gas so they continue to be the supplier for Europe=Keep Assad in power.

So, it is in Russia's interest for the Syrian government to be led by Assad, to maintain a stockpile of chemical weapons and for the rebels to be defeated. We've stated over and over that we aren't working for regime change and don't want to destroy all the chem weapons. We just want to damage them as punishment for using them. We say this despite the fact those are our major national interests in this affair and despite the fact we are actively arming the rebels to help overthrow Assad.

Now our threat of force has somehow convinced Putin to give up on a key national interest and instead help us achieve ours? He says this despite the fact he has actively upheld the Assad government and has assets in place that can protect the stockpile from attack.

We are both lying, but one of us seems closer to achieving their aims than the other. Unfortunately, in this affair that appears to be Putin. Assad is still in power and appears to have the upper hand against the rebels. The only way we achieve our national interests in this is for the Assad government to fall. Just getting rid of the stockpile won't achieve our goals--Putin can replace them in a matter of days if he wants. Assad has to go and he has to be replaced with a government that will work with us instead of Russia. I don't see that happening at this point.