Not provable. Not knowable.
What we do know is they tried. The only legitimate question is, why?
At the extremes the possible explanations are, the Russians:
1) simply hated the idea of HRC enough that they figured they would help Trump.
2) had some ins with the Trump camp. Think Manafort. Trump may not even have known or realized it was happening.
3) figured Trump was inexperienced and would be easier to manipulate by appealing to his ego.
4) had actual dirt on Trump
I used to be in the #4 camp but now that's lower on the list for me because I think we'd have heard about it by now.
I think it was some combination of 1 to 3. If Trump voters are okay with that, well, that's on them.
I think the fact that Russian interference initially pandered for Bernie and Stein until Clinton won the nomination, then switched to Trump, reinforces the point that all four points miss the point.
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Exposing Russia’s Effort to Sow Discord Online: The Internet Research Agency and Advertisements | Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Exposing Russia’s Effort to Sow Discord Online: The Internet Research Agency and Advertisements
The (Mueller) indictment also notes that the IRA:
“[H]ad a strategic goal to sow discord in the U.S. political system, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Defendants posted derogatory information about a number of candidates, and by early to mid-2016, Defendants’ operations included supporting the presidential campaign of then-candidate Donald J. Trump (“Trump Campaign”) and disparaging Hillary Clinton. Defendants made various expenditures to carry out those activities, including buying political advertisements on social media in the names of U.S. persons and entities. Defendants also staged political rallies inside the United States, and while posing as U.S. grassroots entities and U.S. persons, and without revealing their Russian identities and ORGANIZATION affiliation, solicited and compensated real U.S. persons to promote or disparage candidates. Some Defendants, posing as U.S. persons and without revealing their Russian association, communicated with unwitting individuals associated with the Trump Campaign and with other political activists to seek to coordinate political activities.”
Additionally, in their October 2016
joint attribution statement, the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence laid out the Intelligence Community’s assessment that senior Russian government officials had directed a hacking-and-dumping campaign to interfere in the November 2016 U.S. election. In its
subsequent Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) in January 2017, the Intelligence Community further documented Moscow’s interference in our election and its efforts to assist Donald Trump’s campaign and harm Hillary Clinton’s.
According to the ICA:
“Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency.”
The ICA also assesses that:
“Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.”
Putin and the Russian government, the ICA explained:
“[A]spired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him.”
As Ranking Member Adam Schiff stated during the Committee’s November 2017 open hearing with senior officials from Facebook, Twitter, and Google:
“[The Russian] social media campaign was designed to further a broader Kremlin objective: sowing discord in the U.S. by inflaming passions on a range of divisive issues. The Russians did so by weaving together fake accounts, pages, and communities to push politicized content and videos, and to mobilize real Americans to sign online petitions and join rallies and protests. Russia exploited real vulnerabilities that exist across online platforms and we must identify, expose, and defend ourselves against similar covert influence operations in the future. The companies here today must play a central role as we seek to better protect legitimate political expression, while preventing cyberspace from being misused by our adversaries.”
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The House and Senate hearings covered no new ground and relied on the Mueller investigation and ICA. The bottom line is that Russia or Russian cyber agents wanted to create havoc and did so.
But not among the American people. With a laughable pittance of media presence, they thoroughly sucked in the body politic, including congress, intel, FBI and DOJ. For instance, Brennan reported Sept. 2016 to FBI and the Obama WH that Clinton was running a propaganda campaign with the intent of fabricating a collusion narrative between Trump and Russia. But he then turned around in Jan. 2017 and included the shite dossier in the ICA report which gave it the veneer of credence. He also hid behind the media propaganda blitz that postured the ICA report as the intel consensus when it never was. There is no credible reason for his conduct except political motive. Caveat: Russia - or whomever -
did suck in one group of the American people, the 2/3rds of Democrats who believe Russia changed vote tallies to elect Trump.
It's difficult to accept anything the House, intel, FBI, or Mueller produced as anything other than a premise to unseat Trump. For example, there is still no evidence that data was not exfiltrated from DNC servers locally rather than a hack, or that Russia had anything to do with it. Under oath, Crowdstrike admitted as much in a remarkable departure from public statement. Mueller's team was dressed down in federal court for painting Konstantin Kilimnik as a Russian intel officer, without substantiation. Today, both are still unsubstantiated 'common knowledge' that a likely majority of Americans have accepted as fact.
Biden's Treasury has doubled down on that without producing evidence either. Then 50 former intel officers tried to convince Americans that the Hunter Biden laptop is Russian disinfo, in effect running a disinfo campaign to interfere in the 2020 election.
Clinton was a war-mongering known quantity who cackled about the inexplicable destruction of Libya, advocated for the same in Syria, and had impugned the legitimacy of Putin's election. Trump had run on no new conflicts. Obama State Dept. extensively used Manafort and Kilimnik as Russian, Ukrainian, and Euro go-betweens and advisors, so scratch that theory, too.
It isn't any harder than that to understand why Russia was Anyone But Clinton or their motive to create political chaos. Thanks to the aforementioned left and never-Trumpers, they peed themselves over their success.