The season, and Cuonzo's job, come down to...

#76
#76
BurninOrange said:
20 wins is not the automatic bid it once was. Winning games against opp with high rpi and sos is the two main factors. We needed the win at Wichy St and we came up short and lost at home to Nc State. We will also be judged on the Xavier loss as well. Also if UVA beats us at home I think you will see this team start trending down. Also another thing that will cost Martin his job is not feeling the seats.
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Is no one going to comment on this last statement? I'm disappointed.
 
#79
#79
bleedingTNorange said:
NYC you usually do your homework and are a smart poster, but you're dead wrong. At 20-10 presumably 12-6 in conference, this team would be dancing.

As I've said to others, if you can name me a high major that has been left out with a top 45 RPI then I'm all ears, but you can't.
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12-6 in our conference, and a lack of any worthwhile wins out of conference, means no tournament again. 20 wins is not some great number.

Who would we have beaten if we win 20? The numbers don't work out. Even if you say we win at Fla or UK to get there, that means we lose some game we should have to get to our 6 conference losses. 12-6 would put our RPI around 50-60. With our non conf profile we may not even be considered on the bubble.
 
#80
#80
NYC Vol said:
12-6 in our conference, and a lack of any worthwhile wins out of conference, means no tournament again. 20 wins is not some great number.

Who would we have beaten if we win 20? The numbers don't work out. Even if you say we win at Fla or UK to get there, that means we lose some game we should have to get to our 6 conference losses. 12-6 would put our RPI around 50-60. With our non conf profile we may not even be considered on the bubble.
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20-10 (12-6)

Our 4 losses plus UK, UF x2, miss x2 @lsu

How is that losing any games we flat out shouldn't?

That would also give us wins over Virginia and Xavier which both could turn out to be quality wins.

As for you saying if we are 20-10 (12-6) our RPI would be 50-60, rpiforecast.com which has been money, says you're very wrong.

20-10 and our RPI is in the 30s according to them, and as I've said they have been right on the money the last couple seasons.
 
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#84
#84
VolsSportsFan said:
No; you still didn't answer his question. You gave AN answer but dodged his question about a high major with a 45 or better rpi being left out.
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Ha. Oh I see. I don't know if there has been- fortunately I don't feel the need to perform homework assignments headed out on Volnation. Regardless, I don't think with 20 wins we will be a 45 RPI, but that's my opinion.
 
#85
#85
bleedingTNorange said:
And for all those that love KenPom, he also said 12-6 gets UT into the dance.
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I say anyone who throws out things like that now is clueless. I think it has more about getting big wins and not having bad losses. If those 6 losses are bad rpi losses then You better beat LSU and Kentucky and Florida split at least. If the 12-6 is losing to everyone we should and beating everyone else which is hard to do with an uncharasmatic bore like Cuonzo. The team will sleepwalk and lose to someone due to coaches lack of intensity somewhere along the line imo.
 
#86
#86
volgrad500 said:
Ha. Oh I see. I don't know if there has been- fortunately I don't feel the need to perform homework assignments headed out on Volnation. Regardless, I don't think with 20 wins we will be a 45 RPI, but that's my opinion.
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20 wins they actually say RPI of 38, but that's just semantics :)
 
#87
#87
DeepSpringsVol said:
I say anyone who throws out things like that now is clueless. I think it has more about getting big wins and not having bad losses. If those 6 losses are bad rpi losses then You better beat LSU and Kentucky and Florida split at least. If the 12-6 is losing to everyone we should and beating everyone else which is hard to do with an uncharasmatic bore like Cuonzo. The team will sleepwalk and lose to someone due to coaches lack of intensity somewhere along the line imo.
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I would agree if I hadn't tracked it in past years as well, but I have and theSd guys projections are very accurate.
 
#88
#88
bleedingTNorange said:
20-10 (12-6)

Our 4 losses plus UK, UF x2, miss x2 @lsu

How is that losing any games we flat out shouldn't?

That would also give us wins over Virginia and Xavier which both could turn out to be quality wins.

As for you saying if we are 20-10 (12-6) our RPI would be 50-60, rpiforecast.com which has been money, says you're very wrong.

20-10 and our RPI is in the 30s according to them, and as I've said they have been right on the money the last couple seasons.
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This team went 6-4 so far against a pretty weak non conference slate. The only good loss is Wichita.

And if they do go 12-6, under your scenario, what decent SEC wins would we even have?
 
#89
#89
BigZiti09 said:
This team went 6-4 so far against a pretty weak non conference slate. The only good loss is Wichita.

And if they do go 12-6, under your scenario, what decent SEC wins would we even have?
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That's the thing, Ziti. He doesn't seem to understand that we would have zero top 50 RPI wins if we go 12-6 and lose all the games to the decent teams in the SEC. The SEC is going to be about the 9th best rated conference in the country. And beating teams like UGA, SC, Vandy, Miss St and Auburn isn't impressive. Some of those wins are like beating SC Upstate. Then there's still the issue of having the UTEP loss on out resume.

Our resume, at 12-6 in the SEC this year, will be worse than it was last year.
 
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#92
#92
BigZiti09 said:
This team went 6-4 so far against a pretty weak non conference slate. The only good loss is Wichita.

And if they do go 12-6, under your scenario, what decent SEC wins would we even have?
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Decent?

Vs. Arkansas @Alabama

Plus 2 decent to good OOC wins, UVA and Xavier

How many good wins did MTSU have last year? Boise State? ole Miss?

If the RPI is there then a bunch of good wins don't matter all that much.
 
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#93
#93
NYC Vol said:
That's the thing, Ziti. He doesn't seem to understand that we would have zero top 50 RPI wins if we go 12-6 and lose all the games to the decent teams in the SEC. The SEC is going to be about the 9th best rated conference in the country. And beating teams like UGA, SC, Vandy, Miss St and Auburn isn't impressive. Some of those wins are like beating SC Upstate. Then there's still the issue of having the UTEP loss on out resume.

Our resume, at 12-6 in the SEC this year, will be worse than it was last year.
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You realize both Xavier and Virginia could very well be top 50 wins right? Look at their RPI currently and projected. Also, have you noticed Arkansas', they're projected to have a RPI in the top 50 also.
 
#95
#95
If looking for an example of a team that won 20 and went to the NIT look no further than the next team we play.
They had several good wins but 7 bad losses. Lunardi had them in until the very end.
If we follow the scenario of playing to the competition and beat teams like KY, LSU and MZ and lose to GA, SC and other bottom feeders, we'll also be NIT bound even with 20 wins and a very different RPI.
 
#96
#96
calban said:
If looking for an example of a team that won 20 and went to the NIT look no further than the next team we play.
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Are you referring to Virginia from last year?

The team that had a RPI in the mid 70s on selection Sunday, and a SOS around 120?

That's much different than a team with a RPI top 40 and SOS top 40 as well.

How about Villanova last year? They won 19 games regular season, and had a RPI in 50s? They got in pretty easily as a 9 seed.

If we reach 20 wins, this team is dancing, it's truly that simple. Last year we had 19 wins regular season with a horrible SOS, and were considered right on the edge of the bubble. Add 1 more win regular season, and a SOS twice as good as last years, and the answer is pretty obvious.
 
#97
#97
bleedingTNorange said:
Are you referring to Virginia from last year?

The team that had a RPI in the mid 70s on selection Sunday, and a SOS around 120?

That's much different than a team with a RPI top 40 and SOS top 40 as well.

How about Villanova last year? They won 19 games regular season, and had a RPI in 50s? They got in pretty easily as a 9 seed.

If we reach 20 wins, this team is dancing, it's truly that simple. Last year we had 19 wins regular season with a horrible SOS, and were considered right on the edge of the bubble. Add 1 more win regular season, and a SOS twice as good as last years, and the answer is pretty obvious.
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As I said it depends on who the 10 losses are against.
VA's RPI was in the 70s because they lost to bottom feeders.
They had a win against Duke and still sat out.
 
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#98
#98
calban said:
As I said it depends on who the 20 wins are against.
VA's RPI was in the 70s because they lost to bottom feeders.
They had a win against Duke and still sat out.
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according to rpiforecast.com we are favored to win UVA, A&M, AU, Ole Miss, @Vandy, USC, UGA, @A&M, @MSU, Vandy, @Auburn and Miss.

So that would be 19-11 (11-7)

Losses coming to @LSU, @UK, Ark, @UF, @Bama, UF and @Miss.

Rpiforecast.com has home verse Arkansas as the nose winnable, so for arguments sake we will say Arkansas is the 20th win.

Our losses would be @Xavier, N UTEP, @Wichita, NC State, @LSU, @UK, @UF, @Bama, UF and @Misssouri.

That's 2 bad losses at the most, and even that is debatable. If we win 20, we either aren't losing games to bottom feeders (above scenario) or lost some to bottom feeders, but won games like @Rupp or @Florida. You've tracked rpiforecast.com enough to know they're pretty accurate, 20 wins regular season (not counting tusculum) and our RPI will be too good not to make the dance.
 
#99
#99
bleedingTNorange said:
according to rpiforecast.com we are favored to win UVA, A&M, AU, Ole Miss, @Vandy, USC, UGA, @A&M, @MSU, Vandy, @Auburn and Miss.

So that would be 19-11 (11-7)

Losses coming to @LSU, @UK, Ark, @UF, @Bama, UF and @Miss.

Rpiforecast.com has home verse Arkansas as the nose winnable, so for arguments sake we will say Arkansas is the 20th win.

Our losses would be @Xavier, N UTEP, @Wichita, NC State, @LSU, @UK, @UF, @Bama, UF and @Misssouri.

That's 2 bad losses at the most, and even that is debatable. If we win 20, we either aren't losing games to bottom feeders (above scenario) or lost some to bottom feeders, but won games like @Rupp or @Florida. You've tracked rpiforecast.com enough to know they're pretty accurate, 20 wins regular season (not counting tusculum) and our RPI will be too good not to make the dance.
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We don't seem to be playing by rpiforecast predictions this season.
They predicted big wins over UTEP and NC st.
This is a team still searching for an identity. Not good going into conference.
We have a history of regressing.
A win over VA is unlikely for a team that lacks patience and isn't willing to work for shots.
If they somehow start to play to the rpiforecast script, then yes we'll dance.
Continue to regress on cue and we might have a hard time finding an NIT invitation.
 
#100
#100
calban said:
We don't seem to be playing by rpiforecast predictions this season.
They predicted big wins over UTEP and NC st.
This is a team still searching for an identity. Not good going into conference.
We have a history of regressing.
A win over VA is unlikely for a team that lacks patience and isn't willing to work for shots.
If they somehow start to play to the rpiforecast script, then yes we'll dance.
Continue to regress on cue and we might have a hard time finding an NIT invitation.
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Regress as the season goes? Isn't that the opposite trend of Martin coached teams? They tend to start slow and get better, not regress as the season goes.
 
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