'22 TN DT Walter Nolen (Ole Miss)

#3,551
#3,551
SamRebel35 said:
That's fine. I agree with the people who say we need him if for no other reason that the perception of landing a big name in our own backyard. And I'll hope I'm wrong about him, but in my estimation, he's off to a bad start if he wants to be a "boom" rather than a "bust".
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We got it, dude. You don’t need to say the same thing 80 more times in a row.
 
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#3,552
#3,552
daugag02 said:
We got it, dude. You don’t need to say the same thing 80 more times in a row.
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Your hyperbole is showing. You're baiting me into another thread derailing aren't you? I'm not doing it, troll!

If you want me to shut up then respond to the post with content rather than ad hominem attacks and ridiculous hyperbole.
 
#3,553
#3,553
SamRebel35 said:
That's fine. I agree with the people who say we need him if for no other reason that the perception of landing a big name in our own backyard. And I'll hope I'm wrong about him, but in my estimation, he's off to a bad start if he wants to be a "boom" rather than a "bust".
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So. . . you came to an estimation of someone's entire athletic future, an estimation that spans more than 5yrs into the future and includes their impact at a collegiate and professional level - an estimation you believe to be accurate - by watching 20 minutes of a season-opening high school game.

Brilliant.
 
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#3,554
#3,554
Enki_Amenra said:
So. . . you came to an estimation of someone's entire athletic future, an estimation that spans more than 5yrs into the future and includes their impact at a collegiate and professional level - an estimation you believe to be accurate - by watching 20 minutes of a season-opening high school game.

Brilliant.
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Not one game, one fact. A fact that even the staunchest Nolen apologists freely admit. The fact is, he showed up out of shape. Odds aren't good that he'll be a first rounder to begin with. Compounding the already slim odds is him showing up out of shape to play ball. He did not increase his 17% chance by doing that. I don't know how much he decreased his chances, but that's where the estimation comes in. I estimate that his chances of being a first rounder are now lower than 17% and his chances of being a "bust" have increased to an unknown degree, but an increase nonetheless.
 
#3,555
#3,555
SamRebel35 said:
Not one game, one fact. A fact that even the staunchest Nolen apologists freely admit. The fact is, he showed up out of shape. Odds aren't good that he'll be a first rounder to begin with. Compounding the already slim odds is him showing up out of shape to play ball. He did not increase his 17% chance by doing that. I don't know how much he decreased his chances, but that's where the estimation comes in. I estimate that his chances of being a first rounder are now lower than 17% and his chances of being a "bust" have increased to an unknown degree, but an increase nonetheless.
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Do you not realize how asinine it is to make a prediction of an event that will occur in 4-5 years, based on someone appearing to be out of shape in 20 minutes of high school football?
 
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#3,556
#3,556
Enki_Amenra said:
So. . . you came to an estimation of someone's entire athletic future, an estimation that spans more than 5yrs into the future and includes their impact at a collegiate and professional level - an estimation you believe to be accurate - by watching 20 minutes of a season-opening high school game.

Brilliant.
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If you followed the chain of responses you'd see that I've moved on from my critique of one game. I'll grant a bad game can happen to anyone, even to 5* recruits so we can move on and agree to disagree about my critique of the one game I saw in person.
 
#3,557
#3,557
SamRebel35 said:
If you followed the chain of responses you'd see that I've moved on from my critique of one game. I'll grant a bad game can happen to anyone, even to 5* recruits so we can move on and agree to disagree about my critique of the one game I saw in person.
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You clearly stated above that your estimation is based on him appearing to be out of shape.
 
#3,558
#3,558
Enki_Amenra said:
Do you not realize how asinine it is to make a prediction of an event that will occur in 4-5 years, based on someone appearing to be out of shape in 20 minutes of high school football?
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Statistics my dude. If I bet you $100,000 right now that he wouldn't be a first rounder, based on nothing but his rating, I'd already have an 83% chance of winning that bet. Now if you told me he is taking his task so seriously that he is overweight and out of shape in a critical year at the beginning of his season, the odds that I'll win that bet have to be increasing, yes? Respond to that point or move on if it isn't worth thinking about.
 
#3,560
#3,560
Enki_Amenra said:
Do you not realize how asinine it is to make a prediction of an event that will occur in 4-5 years, based on someone appearing to be out of shape in 20 minutes of high school football?
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Also, maybe it is asinine to predict a kid's future based on statistics, but no more asinine than posting about said kid in an internet forum in the first place. Let's not pretend that your presence here is somehow worthwhile rather than asinine. This whole forum is asinine. Who cares? None of this matters.
 
#3,561
#3,561
SamRebel35 said:
I'm trying to imagine a scenario in which I enter the season out of shape if I'm the #1 DT recruit in the country. If I want to be a first rounder, I need to eat, sleep, and breath football and treat it like a job. It is just very odd to me that we're not allowed to call that a red flag.
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G’head…it’s worked out gangbusters for you. 😎
 
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#3,562
#3,562
SamRebel35 said:
Statistics my dude. If I bet you $100,000 right now that he wouldn't be a first rounder, based on nothing but his rating, I'd already have an 83% chance of winning that bet. Now if you told me he is taking his task so seriously that he is overweight and out of shape in a critical year at the beginning of his season, the odds that I'll win that bet have to be increasing, yes? Respond to that point or move on if it isn't worth thinking about.
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If you actually know anything about statistics, my dude, you'll know they are inconsistent, can be manipulated, and are largely used to support weak assertions.

You can use your same exact reasoning for every single player currently rated at 5* and you'd have the exact same probability of being right.
You can manipulate the statistics using your opinion of someone's actions if you want, but it doesn't change the fact that your estimation is severely flawed.
 
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#3,563
#3,563
SamRebel35 said:
Not one game, one fact. A fact that even the staunchest Nolen apologists freely admit. The fact is, he showed up out of shape. Odds aren't good that he'll be a first rounder to begin with. Compounding the already slim odds is him showing up out of shape to play ball. He did not increase his 17% chance by doing that. I don't know how much he decreased his chances, but that's where the estimation comes in. I estimate that his chances of being a first rounder are now lower than 17% and his chances of being a "bust" have increased to an unknown degree, but an increase nonetheless.
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Did you read this before you posted it? If you did and still posted it, well then, I don't think anyone can help you.
 
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#3,570
#3,570
Enki_Amenra said:
If you actually know anything about statistics, my dude, you'll know they are inconsistent, can be manipulated, and are largely used to support weak assertions.

You can use your same exact reasoning for every single player currently rated at 5* and you'd have the exact same probability of being right.
You can manipulate the statistics using your opinion of someone's actions if you want, but it doesn't change the fact that your estimation is severely flawed.
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Historical data of 5* recruits shows that 17% get drafted first round and 50% get drafted. That's not me manipulating anything. Very simple math that can be verified with Google. Does he do what the 17% of first rounders did? Do you think most of them were out of shape in a critical season of their recruitment? I'm seriously curious about your answer to that specific question.
 
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#3,573
#3,573
SamRebel35 said:
I'm trying to imagine a scenario in which I enter the season out of shape if I'm the #1 DT recruit in the country. If I want to be a first rounder, I need to eat, sleep, and breath football and treat it like a job. It is just very odd to me that we're not allowed to call that a red flag.
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So answer this question. Do you know Walter Nolen personally?
 
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