'22 TN DT Walter Nolen (Ole Miss)

[Weezer]

Historical data of 5* recruits shows that 17% get drafted first round and 50% get drafted. That's not me manipulating anything. Very simple math that can be verified with Google. Does he do what the 17% of first rounders did? Do you think most of them were out of shape in a critical season of their recruitment? I'm seriously curious about your answer to that specific question.

32 first round picks every year and hundreds of football players that are draft eligible. No one's odds of being a first round pick are great when you do the math.

Not being a first round doesn't make you a "bust". The most famous example, tho I'm loathe to use it, Tom Brady. Drafted in the Sixth round and all he's done is win 7 Super Bowls. Not exactly a "bust" because he wasn't drafted in the First round.

He's a kid and you're applying adult mentality to him. Put him in a college S&C program and you have no idea what it will do for him. He's of an age where he needs someone to motivate him, to a degree, and in the midst of transferring schools and moving, I seriously doubt he's had that guidance.

I think it far too early to label a kid a "bust" because he's not in football shape after a tumultuous summer.

 

[Weezer]

Lol. Thanks for the life advice. I know you don't really care, but I've spent a quarter of my life outside of Tennessee and more than half my life away from Maryville. I only moved back once I had kids and wanted them to be around aunts, uncles, cousins, and grandparents. Guess that makes me a philistine.

Not trying to be an ass, but since you're a Maryville homer, why is it Maryville kids never work out when signed by UT? They seem to always do well in high school football, but whenever we sign a Maryville kid they just never seem to pan out. I mean, I don't have a statistical breakdown, but I do remember several Maryville kids that signed with UT and never really impacted the program. I'm curious, have any made it to the NFL recently? Asking because I really don't know.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

 

[SamRebel35]

Hey @SamRebel35, to close that loop about Leon Russell from earlier, I have actually been in his house. It was maybe the most unique house I’ve ever been in.

That's crazy! What circumstances put you in his house? I can't say I'm surprised he had a unique house. He was pretty unique himself.

 

[SamRebel35]

Not trying to be an ass, but since you're a Maryville homer, why is it Maryville kids never work out when signed by UT? They seem to always do well in high school football, but whenever we sign a Maryville kid they just never seem to pan out. I mean, I don't have a statistical breakdown, but I do remember several Maryville kids that signed with UT and never really impacted the program. I'm curious, have any made it to the NFL recently? Asking because I really don't know.

No nfl players recently. Aaron Douglas would have been, but we all know that sad story. Jay Guillermo didn't go pro, but he did well at Clemson. Carl Stewart could have been a great athlete at Auburn but he stubbornly stuck at RB too long when it was clear he wasn't going to make it at that position.

The fact is, most players, in general, don't pan out in college. Then factor in that most of the Maryville kids that go D1 are sort of borderline D1 guys and the odds are even smaller that they'll pan out because of that fact.

 

[SamRebel35]

This keeps getting missed.

It was missed because it is untrue. There were plenty of runs between the tackles. He had a few stops (as seen in his 14 second long highlight reel from the game) and Maryville had several interior runs that went for good yardage.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

What is everyone so offended about? We all want Nolen. He has a chance to be great.

However, he does appear to be out of shape as observed in person by you, Swain, Ainge, Brian Rice, AP, and many of us that watched on stream. Why can’t we like him and want him but also comment on observations and be critical about it?

As for the statistics, it seems many people simply don’t understand them. Those numbers (17% and 50%) apply to the aggregate of all 5*s. That doesn’t just apply to Walter, it applies to all 5*s. Based on this stat, if you have say 20 5*s in any given year, 3 of them will likely be drafted in the 1st round and 10 of them total will likely be drafted. All things being equal, if a few of them don’t show equal dedication the. It makes sense that their chances will be lower than the others that show a greater level of dedication.

Btw, Swain specifically questioned his dedication spending the offseason school-shopping and not working more on conditioning.

And no, this doesn’t mean he’s going to be a bust or anyone is making a prediction of his future. It’s an observation and a discussion of his chances of success as a 5* based on established statistics

I'm not offended. I thought he was taking plays off and getting winded too easily.

I simply disagree that you can make an accurate judgement about his, or anyone's, entire future based on 20 minutes of high school gameplay. I also disagree with running a kid into the ground over high school fandom.

 

[cncchris33]

It was missed because it is untrue. There were plenty of runs between the tackles. He had a few stops (as seen in his 14 second long highlight reel from the game) and Maryville had several interior runs that went for good yardage.

So, was your expectation that Nolen would stop any and all comers thru the line? I think we are all in agreement that he isn't in true game shape, but I think your refusal to admit that your expectations for a DT were clearly too high relative to the position he plays is the real culprit, here. That, combined with him being out of shape and you being a Maryville fan have all contributed to your negative, albeit very narrow and limited, opinion.

 

[SamRebel35]

So, was your expectation that Nolen would stop any and all comers thru the line? I think we are all in agreement that he isn't in true game shape, but I think your refusal to admit that your expectations for a DT were clearly too high relative to the position he plays is the real culprit, here. That, combined with him being out of shape and you being a Maryville fan have all contributed to your negative, albeit very narrow and limited, opinion.

I expected him to whip his man when not double teamed and to be disruptive. He flashed a couple times. Quick first step, check. Violent hands, check. The people making that observation are correct. But he didn't disrupt interior runs to the point where Maryville had to stop running them. And there were ample opportunities due to not being truly double teamed. He was combo blocked as any DT would be in a zone blocking scheme.

As a pass rusher he was even less disruptive. I don't remember Maryville qb ever being sacked and was pressured maybe a few times, but I don't remember the pressure ever coming from the middle of the line.

I'll grant that I am biased and it may affect my perception of him. That's fine. But the tape is the tape. And many non Maryville Homers in the local sports media agree with me. Maybe they're biased and wrong about him too. Maybe their expectations of him were too high. I don't know. We'll see in a couple years I guess.

 

[drvenner]

Solid points. Your point about high-school choice: I really wonder if Powell was the right place for him. Just seems like such an odd fit. What kind of coaching do you think he'll get there?

I don't know. Matt Lowe is a good coach. Not sure who helps on the defensive side. They are giving up a ton of points right now.

 

[cncchris33]

I expected him to whip his man when not double teamed and to be disruptive. He flashed a couple times. Quick first step, check. Violent hands, check. The people making that observation are correct. But he didn't disrupt interior runs to the point where Maryville had to stop running them. And there were ample opportunities due to not being truly double teamed. He was combo blocked as any DT would be in a zone blocking scheme.

As a pass rusher he was even less disruptive. I don't remember Maryville qb ever being sacked and was pressured maybe a few times, but I don't remember the pressure ever coming from the middle of the line.

I'll grant that I am biased and it may affect my perception of him. That's fine. But the tape is the tape. And many non Maryville Homers in the local sports media agree with me. Maybe they're biased and wrong about him too. Maybe their expectations of him were too high. I don't know. We'll see in a couple years I guess.

Saying he wasn't constantly double-teamed but then conceding he was often combo blocked is really a distinction without a difference, I'm afraid.

How often was he man-on-man, had a chance to make a play, and failed to do so? And again, as a DT, his job isn't necessarily to make a tackle on every play, but rather to occupy space, take on blockers, and allow off-ball LBs to make the stop on the ball carrier.

 

[engineerVOL]

That's crazy! What circumstances put you in his house? I can't say I'm surprised he had a unique house. He was pretty unique himself.

The house resembled a hobbit mansion, very much an old-English Tudor style home but with small cottage feel. He died I think and the family estate was putting it up for sale. I was hired for an inspection of some damage inside the house.

 

[onevol74]

Not trying to be an ass, but since you're a Maryville homer, why is it Maryville kids never work out when signed by UT? They seem to always do well in high school football, but whenever we sign a Maryville kid they just never seem to pan out. I mean, I don't have a statistical breakdown, but I do remember several Maryville kids that signed with UT and never really impacted the program. I'm curious, have any made it to the NFL recently? Asking because I really don't know.

Not just UT. Where has a Maryville players made a difference in college? Maybe small college?

 

[Jackcrevol]

Not just UT. Where has a Maryville players made a difference in college? Maybe small college?

havent followed Maryville HS football close enough to know. I do know Tee Hodge and that WR few years back were really good. Tee was a frosh last year, during Covid year.

 

[GrayWaterCanine]

This keeps getting missed.

I won't outright dismiss the claim that his conditioning is poor right now, but I think some consideration should be given to the possibility that he is frustrated on some plays. All of the tactics used against him and to avoid him, and the lack of success for their defense at all over 2 games, may be what is being seen more than anything. He looks good at times, and big DTs is not a flashy spot all the time. I do think Lowe and Powell was a poor choice of landing spots for him.

 

[SamRebel35]

Saying he wasn't constantly double-teamed but then conceding he was often combo blocked is really a distinction without a difference, I'm afraid.

How often was he man-on-man, had a chance to make a play, and failed to do so? And again, as a DT, his job isn't necessarily to make a tackle on every play, but rather to occupy space, take on blockers, and allow off-ball LBs to make the stop on the ball carrier.

There is a definite difference between combo blocking and a dedicated double team. And he was man to man with not even a combo often (if I was guessing based only on how it seemed in the moment, I'd say maybe half the time on run plays?). He was man to man a lot in pass protection too and he was never a threat in that area.

 

[cobbwebb0710]

So, have we pulled this kids offer yet...
GBO!!

 

[JT3]

This thread is hilarious

 

[LittleVol]

Swain called the game last night. He said that Maryvilles offensive line did whatever they wanted to last night. They also ran at Nolen. Like Swain said, Nolen needs Rodney Gardner as a DL coach.

Yeah. Any DL needs Gardner, but he will still be great without him.

I've seen Maryville run over many Mr. Football Dlineman. Not to mention he's one dude getting double teamed every play.

I wasn't there so I can't give an honest assessment, but from experience I've seen Maryville run over many good Dlineman individually.

Now great Dlines...? That's different.

 

[LittleVol]

That's what a 5 star should do

Still hope we land him

So...who is the best high school player in America? Since it's not Nolen.
.

 

[Leeleesteeth]

So...who is the best high school player in America? Since it's not Nolen.
.

Can't be the QB from Tex. He threw an incomplete pass Friday. RB from MS got tackled so not him. OL guy from GA had a false start. Better let Captain Football on here take over recruiting.

 

[VOLUNTEERSZN]

So when this kid was projected to go anywhere but Tennessee he was this can’t miss prospect, the next Aaron Donald, etc. but now that he’s going to TN suddenly he’s a bust and Khalil McKenzie 2.0

Lol someone please tell me the last time a Rodney Garner elite DL prospect was a bust.. I mean the man coached Derrick Brown, Montravius Adams and Marlon Davidson. I think he knows what an elite DT looks like.

247 compares him to Leonard Williams, who was the 6th overall pick in 2014. Give me that all day long

 

[T2P_Priceless]

I'm not offended. I thought he was taking plays off and getting winded too easily.

I simply disagree that you can make an accurate judgement about his, or anyone's, entire future based on 20 minutes of high school gameplay. I also disagree with running a kid into the ground over high school fandom.

It’s not an accurate prediction of his future. It’s a loose estimate based on past statistics

 

[Jackcrevol]

I'm not offended. I thought he was taking plays off and getting winded too easily.

I simply disagree that you can make an accurate judgement about his, or anyone's, entire future based on 20 minutes of high school gameplay. I also disagree with running a kid into the ground over high school fandom.

its the second game at a new HS.

 

[SamRebel35]

It’s not an accurate prediction of his future. It’s a loose estimate based on past statistics

This. Well stated.