'20 TX QB Haynes King (TAMU Commit)

[SweetasSoda]

I guarantee if King was a Vol commit before the Opening and Bailey hadn’t made a decision yet, they would have ripped King about his size...that he isn’t prototypical size and will have to beef up considerably before being a factor at the next level. For those reasons...3 ️

I think a lot of has to do with Bailey they have praised his skills so long that they started focusing on where he could be weak. Haynes is new and shiny, and they are focusing on what is great about him. Plus they prefer the athletic QB. It's human nature.

 

[kemotoe]

Where did the Haynes King thread go? I must have misclicked.

 

[DaddyChad]

I guarantee if King was a Vol commit before the Opening and Bailey hadn’t made a decision yet, they would have ripped King about his size...that he isn’t prototypical size and will have to beef up considerably before being a factor at the next level. For those reasons...3 ️

You’re definitely right about the uncommitted part. Recruiting services fall for these raw athletic numbers. And it’s nice but give me the guy that can throw the ball the best. King might very well be better than Bailey but I’m betting on the better passing QB.

 

[BondJamesBond]

Where did the Haynes King thread go? I must have misclicked.

There I'd no Haynes King thread anymore. There are only 300 threads about JG with different names.

 

[Sleegro]

good stuff. but i'm not sure i would have let him throw it a ton more either. more, yes......how much, that's probably debatable?

there's a lot, imo, that needs to improve in the passing game in general. from play caller, game planning, to qb, to ol/pass protection in general, to Running game, to WR's/TE's....

i think that's part of the problem with us, and this particular debate.....there seems to be annoying need to blame......and lack of any other insight, it's gotta be the guy with the ball in his hands, right?

well, yes, and no....WR's did drop the ball. TE's and OL and RB's did screw up pass protections....JG did miss reads pre snap and take too long to deliver...he did take sacks he shouldn't have...we weren't good at running the ball so defenses could play us a lot more conservatively.......the play calling wasn't alwasy great......etc, etc, etc....

i mean really, we just weren't very good as an offensive football team last season, or the season before for that matter.

none of that is aimed at anyone in particular, just a general commentary on the whole QB debacle of a topic.

I don't disagree, but I think letting him pass more would have opened up the run game a little by being less predictable and allowed the line to be more effective which would in turn help the pass game. If the other team knows what yer doing all the time then you have no chance. From what I saw and what I can tell, the holding the ball too long thing is a bit of a narrative. He was probably guilty of it in 2017 but there was huge improvement in 2018. In 17 he was sacked 27 times, hit 28 times, and hurried 36 times for a total of 91 times on dropbacks. In 2018 those numbers were cut in half. Sacked 12 times, hit 18 times and hurried 15 times. For a total of 45. And that was in more games. I would call that significant improvement in the area of the most overused jg narrative out there. And being less predictable with play calling and allowing him to pass more on running downs would have likely helped even more.

But I'll stop now cause I know this is the king thread. My original post was just to clarify the drop rate that the other poster was questioning.

Edit: The stats are from the CFB filmroom stats because I couldn't find any other sites that track sacks, hits and hurries for college. They do things a little different than most but there is a logic behind their stats that does make some sense. For anyone who wants to use the more common stats, most sites list 2017 being sacked 26 times on 139 attempts, so sacked on 18.7% of his attempts vs 2018 being sacked 22 times on 246 attempts, so sacked on 8.9% of his attempts. So even based on those stats he cut the percentage of sacks per attempt in half. Which, statistically speaking, I believe is significant.

 

[sjt18]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/t...t-guarantano-sec-qb-being-hurt-most-by-drops/

View attachment 211979




Edit: And since I know yer gonna be all like OMG I can't find the metric. They track stats a bit differently. From their site:



Would you believe a stat that said as a team we had 14 drops last season? Seems pretty reasonable. And if you take out all the tap passes, short pitches and shovels that CFB filmroom counts as handoffs instead, then JG completed 87 out of 137 attempts. Which means 50 incompletions. 14 of the 50 incompletions were counted as drops, which seems reasonable. So 28% of his incompletions were due to drops which is most in the SEC. I think the biggest issue was the run game was so inept and they didn't let JG throw enough. He was actually pretty effective and efficient when he did. They just didn't let him do it enough.

Thanks for the info but it doesn't answer one of my main questions. That question is what they count as a drop. The NFL treats it as "should have been caught". That's still pretty subjective but more fair than "if you can touch it you can catch it".

The problem with your argument is that even if that graph is legit... The difference between JG at 14 and Mond is less than two drops per game. The QB can factor into drops due to timing. Even the route trees can factor in by causing receivers to catch balls with little separation.

And... if this graph used multiple people to review video or used program reported stats... a difference of less than 2 drops per game could be little more than the judgment of the person who did the counting.

Drops hurt. UT did have some costly drops. That simply doesn't erase JG's contribution to the problems.

 

[sjt18]

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/co...hich-sec-qbs-are-hurt-most-by-dropped-passes/

If you are still interested in the discussion, see my response to sleegro

 

[Sleegro]

Thanks for the info but it doesn't answer one of my main questions. That question is what they count as a drop. The NFL treats it as "should have been caught". That's still pretty subjective but more fair than "if you can touch it you can catch it".

The problem with your argument is that even if that graph is legit... The difference between JG at 14 and Mond is less than two drops per game. The QB can factor into drops due to timing. Even the route trees can factor in by causing receivers to catch balls with little separation.

And... if this graph used multiple people to review video or used program reported stats... a difference of less than 2 drops per game could be little more than the judgment of the person who did the counting.

Drops hurt. UT did have some costly drops. That simply doesn't erase JG's contribution to the problems.

Is that good enough for you?

 

[sjt18]

One more or less drop a game can be a big difference.

It can also be nothing more than the judgment of whoever counted something a drop vs a bad throw.

The NFL defines a drop as a pass that "should have been caught". It allows judgment but doesn't assume the circus catch just because the ball grazed a finger.

If we want to go one level deeper, being late with a pass can contribute to drops. The QB throwing on time could allow the receiver to make the catch in space whereas throwing it late could force him to make a catch while being more closely covered.

I'm not interested in blaming JG for everything. But I'm also opposed to the efforts to absolve him of everything and shift blame to apparently anyone else.

 

[jakez4ut]

Thanks for the info but it doesn't answer one of my main questions. That question is what they count as a drop. The NFL treats it as "should have been caught". That's still pretty subjective but more fair than "if you can touch it you can catch it".

The problem with your argument is that even if that graph is legit... The difference between JG at 14 and Mond is less than two drops per game. The QB can factor into drops due to timing. Even the route trees can factor in by causing receivers to catch balls with little separation.

And... if this graph used multiple people to review video or used program reported stats... a difference of less than 2 drops per game could be little more than the judgment of the person who did the counting.

Drops hurt. UT did have some costly drops. That simply doesn't erase JG's contribution to the problems.

i don't think it was meant to say it was "THE" issue..............just another issue our passing game had.

 

[Sleegro]

It can also be nothing more than the judgment of whoever counted something a drop vs a bad throw.

The NFL defines a drop as a pass that "should have been caught". It allows judgment but doesn't assume the circus catch just because the ball grazed a finger.

If we want to go one level deeper, being late with a pass can contribute to drops. The QB throwing on time could allow the receiver to make the catch in space whereas throwing it late could force him to make a catch while being more closely covered.

I'm not interested in blaming JG for everything. But I'm also opposed to the efforts to absolve him of everything and shift blame to apparently anyone else.

The CFB Filmroom definition of drops is even stricter than the NFL or anyone else I can find.

 

[sjt18]

Is that good enough for you?

It helps. And there is still a judgment call to be made. Watching baseball umpires or basketball officials... you'll see some things better defined than a "drop" varying quite a bit. The MLB strike zone "by the book" is any part of the ball over any part of the plate between the bottom of the knees and the mid-point between the batter's shoulders and top of his uniform pants. But watch long enough and you'll see umps that give nothing above the belt or nothing over the black or require the whole ball to pass over the plate.

My point is that you defense is flawed in a whole bunch of ways.... and not comparatively significant between him and the bottom 9 or so QB's even if accurate.

 

[sjt18]

i don't think it was meant to say it was "THE" issue..............just another issue our passing game had.

It is another issue for sure. It was stated kind of out of the blue in discussion of something else.

 

[jakez4ut]

It can also be nothing more than the judgment of whoever counted something a drop vs a bad throw.

The NFL defines a drop as a pass that "should have been caught". It allows judgment but doesn't assume the circus catch just because the ball grazed a finger.

If we want to go one level deeper, being late with a pass can contribute to drops. The QB throwing on time could allow the receiver to make the catch in space whereas throwing it late could force him to make a catch while being more closely covered.

I'm not interested in blaming JG for everything. But I'm also opposed to the efforts to absolve him of everything and shift blame to apparently anyone else.

based on the math that sleegro provided earlier..

14 of the 50 incompletions were counted as drops, .

i'm not sure this particular metric deserves all the poking and prodding you're attempting here. the only thing that really matters for comparison's sake is that the other QB's on the list's numbers were calculated the same way.

typically, i'm the same way with data and its origins if i'm being asked to analyze something and draw conclusions from it.

but we're talking about a little over 1 per game, and the conclusion you might could draw from that is maybe that completion is the difference in a possession? a FG opportunity? a TD? and we're not really even doing that. just showing it as a contributor.

anyway, it's part of the problem our offense has...it's not THE problem.

 

[jakez4ut]

It is another issue for sure. It was stated kind of out of the blue in discussion of something else.

lol, well i did pick up mid stream so i could be coming in this late, and out of context lol.

 

[sjt18]

The CFB Filmroom definition of drops is even stricter than the NFL or anyone else I can find.

And still there is a judgment call on the part of the guy(s) counting. Even if the same guy, fatigue and other things can cause variance in how similar plays are judged.

UT's receivers dropped passes. One is too many. But that is much less a factor than JG's decision making and reads or the OL's failings.

Also I mentioned earlier that QB timing can also impact drops. A short or late pass can allow the D to close and make the catch more difficult.

 

[SLICKYINC]

insufferable

 

[Sleegro]

It helps. And there is still a judgment call to be made. Watching baseball umpires or basketball officials... you'll see some things better defined than a "drop" varying quite a bit. The MLB strike zone "by the book" is any part of the ball over any part of the plate between the bottom of the knees and the mid-point between the batter's shoulders and top of his uniform pants. But watch long enough and you'll see umps that give nothing about the belt or nothing over the black or require the whole ball to pass over the plate.

My point is that you defense is flawed in a whole bunch of ways.... and not comparatively significant between him and the bottom 9 or so QB's even if accurate.

You have picked yer hill to stand on and nothing anyone says will ever change yer mind. I provided everything you requested and yer still not "buying" it. They have a stricter definition of drops than any other service and it's not good enough for you. It seems like only fumbles can 100% be defined as drops in yer mind. My posts to you weren't a flawed defense. They weren't a defense at all. You asked questions regarding the stat that was posted. I was curious so I used the googles to find the answers. Of course it's an imperfect subjective stat. A lot of stats are. Go look at tackle stats that I'm sure you wouldn't put up this much of a fuss about. But it's the strictest most conservative definition of the stat out there. So if that's not good enough for you then no version of the stat will be.

 

[Sleegro]

And still there is a judgment call on the part of the guy(s) counting. Even if the same guy, fatigue and other things can cause variance in how similar plays are judged.

UT's receivers dropped passes. One is too many. But that is much less a factor than JG's decision making and reads or the OL's failings.

Also I mentioned earlier that QB timing can also impact drops. A short or late pass can allow the D to close and make the catch more difficult.

By this logic, a lot of stats and debates are useless. The real issue you seem to be having with the stat seems to be that it doesn't support a desired narrative.

 

[Sleegro]

based on the math that sleegro provided earlier.. i'm not sure this particular metric deserves all the poking and prodding you're attempting here. the only thing that really matters for comparison's sake is that the other QB's on the list's numbers were calculated the same way.

typically, i'm the same way with data and its origins if i'm being asked to analyze something and draw conclusions from it.

but we're talking about a little over 1 per game, and the conclusion you might could draw from that is maybe that completion is the difference in a possession? a FG opportunity? a TD? and we're not really even doing that. just showing it as a contributor.

anyway, it's part of the problem our offense has...it's not THE problem.

This. But hopefully they aren't "fatigued" when tracking the data. Hahahaha such a weird argument.

 

[AaronUT]

And still there is a judgment call on the part of the guy(s) counting. Even if the same guy, fatigue and other things can cause variance in how similar plays are judged.

UT's receivers dropped passes. One is too many. But that is much less a factor than JG's decision making and reads or the OL's failings.

Also I mentioned earlier that QB timing can also impact drops. A short or late pass can allow the D to close and make the catch more difficult.

Of all the mountains that we call molehills, you chose to conquer.

🏳

 

[jakez4ut]

This. But hopefully they aren't "fatigued" when tracking the data. Hahahaha such a weird argument.

yeah, but i get where he's coming from. i used to argue with my boss about inclusion/exclusion of data all the time, and why this mattered, but that didn't....he was more of an "all in" guy, and i'm definitley more of a meat and potatoes guy...stick to the relevant data, give a clearer picture of what the problem is, and what to fix.

bottom line, i want to know the validity of the data i'm analyzing and drawing conclusions from too.

but there's a point where some data points, you just acknowledge them for what htey are and move on........this is one of those imo. it's symptom, not the magic bullet.

our passing game sucked. this is just one of the several reasons it did....receivers could reduce drops, they could run better routes, they could create more seperations etc, etc, etc....but first things first.......what the hell is the problem? lol.

 

[Sleegro]

Of all the mountains that we call molehills, you chose to conquer.

🏳

His point sounds like he's a bit fatigued.

 

[Sleegro]

yeah, but i get where he's coming from. i used to argue with my boss about inclusion/exclusion of data all the time, and why this mattered, but that didn't....he was more of an "all in" guy, and i'm definitley more of a meat and potatoes guy...stick to the relevant data, give a clearer picture of what the problem is, and what to fix.

bottom line, i want to know the validity of the data i'm analyzing and drawing conclusions from too.

but there's a point where some data points, you just acknowledge them for what htey are and move on........this is one of those imo. it's symptom, not the magic bullet.

our passing game sucked. this is just one of the several reasons it did....receivers could reduce drops, they could run better routes, they could create more seperations etc, etc, etc....but first things first.......what the hell is the problem? lol.

Nobody was claiming it was anything more than another data point though. haha

 

[jakez4ut]

Nobody was claiming it was anything more than another data point though. haha

agree.