Well.. Pitt took us to overtime and UK is better than Pitt.
Based on?
UK has wins over:
37-13 Miami OH- 3-4
26-16 UF- 4-3
31-0 Youngstown State- FCS
31-23 NIU- 2-5
27-17 MSU- 5-2
The combined record of the FBS teams they've beaten is 14-14. Which of those wins do you consider "impressive" considering how badly UF was playing at that point and that one of their TD's was a 6 yd drive and another was a pick 6 that AR threw to a UK defender with no WR within 20 yds? If you think that was a "good" win... what would be next? Before answering, check how MSU has performed against good opponents. LSU held them to 289 total yds.
Pitt hasn't beaten anyone either although WVU just got a win against Baylor. We will see who they are starting after this week when they play UNC. When all is said and done, they're probably going to be a 3 loss team and ranked. A lot like UK. They'll beat the weak opponents and get a win or two against a decent team.
Neither of these teams has played a schedule that allows you to say one is a lot better than the other.
Florida was in the game until the last drive … UK beat Florida..
That's fairly revisionist. UF needed a miracle to get back into the UT game after trailing by 17 points. AR played out of his mind and made throws that he hadn't made before and isn't making consistently now. You can blame that on UT's D but there were times when they gave him small windows and he hit them where previously he'd misfired. UT got UF's best A game. UK got gifted two TD's which were the difference in the game.
Gotta give us more than half a season before we don’t worry about other teams.
I wouldn't advise the
team to overlook anyone starting with UT-Martin. But if you objectively look at UT vs UK... It should look a whole lot like the LSU game if not worse. The questions you have to ask yourself are these: How does UK's O compare to Bama's O? How does UK's OL compare to Bama's OL? How does UK's DL compare to Bama's DL? How does UK's D overall compare to Bama's D?
Lastly and maybe most significantly... if Bama's DBs were that hopelessly overmatched by Hyatt, McCoy, Keyton, Warren, and Fant... how will UK hold up once Tillman is back in?
It’s not necessarily a knock on how good we think we are- more of being realistic that even great teams fall all the time.
That's true. But part of being realistic is avoiding being too negative to compensate for your fan emotions.
UK isn't a great team. They are fatally flawed in multiple ways. Maybe even worse for them vs UT... their weaknesses align ideally to UT's strengths. Their DB's are not as good as they were last year. Their D is statistically good but they've played some really, really bad offenses. They are also near the bottom of the SEC in sacks with only 10... about half what Bama has produced against much better competition.
They've allowed the most sacks in the SEC with 26 and 3.71 per game. Their run blocking is just as bad with Rodriguez pretty much being his own blocker at this point. Levis is physically talented. He reminds me of a slightly better version of JG though. His decision making is often suspect. Their WR's have flourished non-SEC but not so much vs the SEC. They have 210 ypg vs the SEC and 328 vs the rest. Against ONLY the SEC (and they've played weaker opponents than UT) their passing O averages 210 ypg. UT avgs 324.
I think the Bama game and the hype leading up to it concerning their ability to stop or limit UT is instructive. Most "experts" predicting the game had Bama holding UT under 30. I didn't see any predicting UT to score over 40. Most thought Bama's D was just too good to allow that kind of scoring. As unlikely as it seemed, they actually underestimated UT's O. Vegas completely whiffed on the scoring prediction. We still don't know what the upper limit of UT's O is. But we can be relatively certain it is way, way above that of UK... and maybe anyone else not named Bama, UGA, or tOSU.
Scoring O wouldn't usually be a part of this kind of argument for me but I think it is pretty relevant. UK scores 26.4 ppg against all opponents for 11th in the SEC. Versus the SEC only, they average 21.5 ppg. They allow 16.4 and 19.8 respectively.
UT averages 32 ppg on D vs the SEC skewed significantly by Bama. Overall they allow 23 ppg. UT scores 47.7 overall and 43.3 vs the SEC. UT's point differential vs the SEC is more 11. UK's is less than 2.
One level deeper which is a much bigger conversation overall... this one thing. UK isn't deep on D this year and especially the DL. If UT runs tempo and gets into their depth chart... it will get really, really ugly for the Cats.