Ukraine Protests

[volprof]

Okay, CNN (I know) is currently disputing the claim that 67 police were taken hostage. Still trying to confirm, although it does appear that at least some police have been taken captive by the protesters.

I would be highly surprised if this escalates beyond the current level we see at the moment (although wars have started due to much dumber reasons), but this is a nightmare scenario if it does reach beyond the current point. If I know Russia and Putin like I think I do, then they will not hesitate to move in with troops to restore their puppet. Of course, they'll wait till after the Olympics, but that's less than a week away. If they do at some point, what will America and NATO's move be?

Like I said, this is a nightmare scenario, and I highly doubt this reaches fruition.

 

[Burger]

Are you the poster who was arguing with me a week or two ago about our nation's history with Native Americans? I think you are, but I could be wrong.

Who knows. We did terrible things to them, but they lost the war.

I don't get why these people are protesting, but that's probably my ignorance. I give credit for actually trying to throw the guy out.

 

[Grand Vol]

Okay, CNN (I know) is currently disputing the claim that 67 police were taken hostage. Still trying to confirm, although it does appear that at least some police have been taken captive by the protesters.

I would be highly surprised if this escalates beyond the current level we see at the moment (although wars have started due to much dumber reasons), but this is a nightmare scenario if it does reach beyond the current point. If I know Russia and Putin like I think I do, then they will not hesitate to move in with troops to restore their puppet. Of course, they'll wait till after the Olympics, but that's less than a week away. If they do at some point, what will America and NATO's move be?

Like I said, this is a nightmare scenario, and I highly doubt this reaches fruition.

According to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, they claim that 67 police were taken hostage. So that figure could be a bit dubious as this is the same government under fire.

Messy.

 

[volprof]

Who knows. We did terrible things to them, but they lost the war.

I don't get why these people are protesting, but that's probably my ignorance. I give credit for actually trying to throw the guy out.

As I understand, they're protesting because the democratic process in their country to join with the EU (your negative opinions of that organization aside) was unilaterally derailed by the pro-Russian power structure and the pro-Russian president.

I'm no expert on Ukrainian politics, but I guess it would be like us being upset about another country upsetting the natural flow of our own democratic process. (And of course, the US govt. knows nothing about upsetting the democratic processes of other countries, but that's a tell for another day.)

 

[Burger]

As I understand, they're protesting because the democratic process in their country to join with the EU (your negative opinions of that organization aside) was unilaterally derailed by the pro-Russian power structure and the pro-Russian president.

I'm no expert on Ukrainian politics, but I guess it would be like us being upset about another country upsetting the natural flow of our own democratic process. (And of course, the US govt. knows nothing about upsetting the democratic processes of other countries, but that's a tell for another day.)

It's nothing we should be involved in. Either they win and their ideals hold up, or they lose and get slaughtered like others before them. Victory in war is earned, and the loser suffers the consequences.

 

[Burhead]

Who knows. We did terrible things to them, but they lost the war.

I don't get why these people are protesting, but that's probably my ignorance. I give credit for actually trying to throw the guy out.

There is a battle pitting the government (who leans towards Russia) against the people who wish to more like Western Europe.

 

[volprof]

It's nothing we should be involved in. Either they win and their ideals hold up, or they lose and get slaughtered like others before them. Victory in war is earned, and the loser suffers the consequences.

I admire your Spartan fatalism; I'm somewhat of a fatalist myself. But I think modern societies are a bit too advanced and complex to subscribe to such a philosophy. If I'm reading you correctly, your thinking basically enables something like the Holocaust or genocide. Fatalism, while admirable for its strength, is antithetical to the democratic process.

 

[Grand Vol]

There is a battle pitting the government (who leans towards Russia) against the people who wish to more like Western Europe.

Which will get way messier before it gets better. And hopefully the Ukrainian President doesn't get the bright idea of asking for Russian troops to help restore order.

 

[Burhead]

Which will get way messier before it gets better. And hopefully the Ukrainian President doesn't get the bright idea of asking for Russian troops to help restore order.

I was just checking the demographics of the Ukraine and didn't realize about 18% of the population is ethnic Russian. Still I don't see Putin gambling on something as huge as deploying troops into this mess. It could wind up biting him more than it could help.

 

[volprof]

Which will get way messier before it gets better. And hopefully the Ukrainian President doesn't get the bright idea of asking for Russian troops to help restore order.

That most certainly would not be a bright idea. Seeing as to how he unilaterally "vetoed" the move to the EU though, it may very well happen. It sounds bizarre to say, but possibly the only think that will prevent him from making that move is the reaction on the part of his people that he has witnessed. Death and violence to avoid much worse death and violence.

 

[volprof]

I was just checking the demographics of the Ukraine and didn't realize about 18% of the population is ethnic Russian. Still I don't see Putin gambling on something as huge as deploying troops into this mess. It could wind up biting him more than it could help.

And as I understand, that ethnic minority is a primary component of the country's power structure. Basically like apartheid South Africa (at least from a power/ethnicity dynamic).

Could be wrong though.

 

[Grand Vol]

I was just checking the demographics of the Ukraine and didn't realize about 18% of the population is ethnic Russian. Still I don't see Putin gambling on something as huge as deploying troops into this mess. It could wind up biting him more than it could help.

I don't know. Using Georgia as a reference, Putin doesn't seem like he cares about what the international community thinks if he rolls troops into neighboring countries.

I know Medvedev was the President, but we all know who really controlled the country when he was "in charge."

 

[volprof]

And for those still not understanding the motivation to protest in the Ukraine, many Americans get upset when they see a public sign printed in English and Spanish. Imagine living in a country where you're actually subjected to the power of a minority group, like in Ukraine.

 

[Burhead]

I don't know. Using Georgia as a reference, Putin doesn't seem like he cares about what the international community thinks if he rolls troops into neighboring countries.

I know Medvedev was the President, but we all know who really controlled the country when he was "in charge."

Maybe it's me but I don't see how the situations are the same. Fighting a short war against Georgia is one thing, deploying troops into the middle of a possible civil war is another. I also question if the Russian military even has the ability to undertake such a large scale operation that would be needed for this scenario as well.

 

[volprof]

Maybe it's me but I don't see how the situations are the same. Fighting a short war against Georgia is one thing, deploying troops into the middle of a possible civil war is another. I also question if the Russian military even has the ability to undertake such a large scale operation that would be needed for this scenario as well.

I think that would depend on what access to arms is like for the protest group. If all they have are some rocks, clubs, and molotovs, then Russia could handle it. But if they have some military help on their side, perhaps not.

I wonder what the Ukrainian military situation looks like. In Syria we've seen that structure fractured somewhat by defectors who have sided with the rebels. I wonder if the protesters would have any Ukrainian military support.

 

[Velo Vol]

Imagine living in a country where you're actually subjected to the power of a minority group, like in Ukraine.

It's a bit more complicated than that. 18% of the country may be Russian, but many more in the eastern part are Russian leaning, language and culture-wise. Ukraine was part of Russia for a long time.

The president did (narrowly) win a nation-wide election.

 

[Burhead]

I think that would depend on what access to arms is like for the protest group. If all they have are some rocks, clubs, and molotovs, then Russia could handle it. But if they have some military help on their side, perhaps not.

I wonder what the Ukrainian military situation looks like. In Syria we've seen that structure fractured somewhat by defectors who have sided with the rebels. I wonder if the protesters would have any Ukrainian military support.

In the BBC article I was reading earlier I did see where some protesters have now started arming. As for the Ukrainian military, there must be some in the upper echelon that must be against turning the military loose on civilians as evidenced by the sacking of the army chief.

 

[volprof]

It's a bit more complicated than that. 18% of the country may be Russian, but many more in the eastern part are Russian leaning, language and culture-wise. Ukraine was part of Russia for a long time.

The president did (narrowly) win a nation-wide election.

I understand that. My South Africa example was probably not accurate, but it seems to me that the situation still boils down in some sense to a nationalist/ethnic support for Russia v. a nationalist/ethnic support for Ukraine (that is more pro-Western). I know this is a bit of a simplification though.

 

[Velo Vol]

I also question if the Russian military even has the ability to undertake such a large scale operation that would be needed for this scenario as well.

???

Ability to fight whom?

The Russian military wouldn't get involved unless the Ukrainian government totally collapsed. And at that point one would wonder what it would be they were propping up.

 

[volinbham]

According to Townhall.com, President Obama threatens consequences for Ukraine violence against peaceful protesters. The USA has considered joining European partners to impose sanctions aimed at ending deadly street clashes that are sparking fears of a civil war.

Here's more

Obama warns of ‘consequences’ in Ukraine as U.S. issues visa bans - The Washington Post

A fuzzy red line?

“There will be consequences if people step over the line,” Obama said. He did not spell out just what that line is, but said the United States is considering its next step in concert with European nations. He added a particular warning that the Ukrainian military should not “step into what should be a set of issues that can be resolved by civilians.”

didn't spell out what the "line" is and what the consequences would be. Nice work.

 

[volprof]

???

Ability to fight whom?

The Russian military wouldn't get involved unless the Ukrainian government totally collapsed. And at that point one would wonder what it would be they were propping up.

I don't know, man. Putin is absolutely terrified of the prospect of a pro-Western state (as important as Ukraine) directly next to him. Most importantly, however, he's terrified of this because these same kind of pro-Western clashes could eventually break out in his Russia. That's already been a major impetus to the "***** Riot movement" and the reaction of the Russian government.

 

[Velo Vol]

In the last election map you can see there's a stark contrast between east and west, but there's a significant part of the population that isn't necessarily fixed in either camp.

 

[Burhead]

Just saw this pop up on my Twitter feed:

Ukraine: Interior Ministry Security Forces Put Down Guns In Lutsk
Ukrainian Interior Ministry security forces in Lutsk put down their guns Feb. 20 and said they will share the guns with far-right group Pravy Sektor and the Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc, according to a Twitter message by Kyiv Post, citing Hromadske TV.

It's a free article from StratFor

 

[Grand Vol]

Maybe it's me but I don't see how the situations are the same. Fighting a short war against Georgia is one thing, deploying troops into the middle of a possible civil war is another. I also question if the Russian military even has the ability to undertake such a large scale operation that would be needed for this scenario as well.

Huge difference in invading a country like Georgia and being "invited" in by the sitting and recognized leadership of a sovereign nation. It gives him the latitude to say "we were invited in" and thumb his nose at the international community. But the point I was trying to make is Putin really doesn't care what the international community, much less the West, thinks of him.

And yes, they do have that capability. This isn't the same Russian forces of the 90s that was broken and busted. Putin has made great strides in bringing it back into relevance.

 

[Grand Vol]

Just saw this pop up on my Twitter feed:



It's a free article from StratFor

And that's what we call the initial stages of a civil war...