(Updated 7/13) 2021 MLB Draft and Roster Management Discussion Thread

[txbo]

True that. But if that desire to move on isn't overpowering, it comes down to just how much he can improve his draft in 22. 1st round, 2nd round? eigth round? 4th? I think the best ones to tell him that is CTV and his staff.

Wasn't he a projected first rounder going into last season?

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Wasn't a projected first rounder going into last season?

Don't know, but he was supposed to be the ace of our staff, so I'm guessing he was projected in the early rounds somewhere. But that's just a guess.

 

[SoonerVol]

Don't know, but he was supposed to be the ace of our staff, so I'm guessing he was projected in the early rounds somewhere. But that's just a guess.

this years ace went in the 4th.

 

[31VFL]

Does Leath not technically have two years left? He qualifies for a medical RS this year.

 

[cncchris33]

As OT and I have pointed out, a stelllar college year next year gives him plenty of leverage in the 22 draft. Supply vs demand. A great pitcher is a rare commodity.

You’re misunderstanding what the actual leverage is. I’ve tried explaining it, but I’m either doing a poor job, or you just aren’t grasping it.

I understand that by coming back and pitching well and staying healthy, he can improve his stock, but that isn’t “leverage” for next year. That is simply improving your standing in the eyes of scouts, which we would expect he’d do and earn more money via a higher draft position in 2022 vs 2021. He is still stuck with whatever he gets, next year, though, because he no longer has the threat of saying, “No thanks”, and returning to school. THAT is the leverage element he currently has.

 

[GenRRN]

You’re misunderstanding what the actual leverage is. I’ve tried explaining it, but I’m either doing a poor job, or you just aren’t grasping it.

I understand that by coming back and pitching well and staying healthy, he can improve his stock, but that isn’t “leverage” for next year. That is simply improving your standing in the eyes of scouts, which we would expect he’d do and earn more money via a higher draft position in 2022 vs 2021. He is still stuck with whatever he gets, next year, though, because he no longer has the threat of saying, “No thanks”, and returning to school. THAT is the leverage element he currently has.

To piggyback on this, if I understand correctly, is the fact that even if he is drafted in an earlier round, the team that drafts him could pay him much less then the slot value. And because he has no option of returning to school, he has to take whatever they offer. Whereas this year even though he was drafted in a later round, he could ask for over slot value since he can hang over the fact that he has the option to return to school if he doesn't get what he wants.

 

[cncchris33]

I know that the leverage is the threat to return school. The point I was trying but failed to make was that at the end of the day this is all about money, right? According to Baseball America, they have a chart that says Pick 312 in the 10th Round has a Slot Value of $142,200. So, I assume a 12th round pick is probably around $135,000. I feel like it is very unlikely he gets double that money. If he returns to school and improves his draft position, that is kind of his de facto leverage. I think a lot of people see him as having Round 5-6 type stuff before injury, which is a much better pay day.

It's all kind of moot thought because he might not care that much about increasing the draft day pay day, and he might just prefer getting started on his trek through the minors rather than being another year older.

This makes much more sense than trying to relate what his actual leverage is and reassigning it to something unrelated.

I still don’t even see it as “de facto leverage” because he still has no means of negotiation as a senior with no remaining college eligibility, next year. Coming back and improving his stock is just that. If you want to call it leverage, fine, but it is leverage in the present because he has the option of returning, not the future when he doesn’t. What you described above is just a calculated risk of betting on yourself to stay healthy and perform well and to have teams bid for your services via draft slot.

 

[whitw]

What are the chances Hunley returns?

 

[cncchris33]

To piggyback on this, if I understand correctly, is the fact that even if he is drafted in an earlier round, the team that drafts him could pay him much less then the slot value. And because he has no option of returning to school, he has to take whatever they offer. Whereas this year even though he was drafted in a later year, he could ask for over slot value since he can hang over the fact that he has the option to return to school if he doesn't get what he wants.

That is the gist of it, yes. Clubs are motivated to come to an agreement with a player because they don’t want to risk wasting the pick, so the team that drafts him next year (if he returned) isn’t going to offer him a hundred bucks and a box of donuts and say, “Take it or leave it”. He could sit out a year and re-enter the draft the following year, and the team that drafted him and didn’t sign him cannot draft him again without the players written consent to do so.

Each draft position is assigned a slot value, and each team adds up the slot value for each draft pick they have, and that is considered their “bonus pool” money. They have that amount to use to sign their picks.

Players are drafted based on their “signability”…what it will cost to sign them. So, some teams will overdraft players (draft them higher than their expected range) and sign them “below slot” in order to draft better players later and pay them above slot. It’s all a money game; budgeting and negotiating, really.

A player has some leverage if he has the ability to return to school and bypass an offer he isn’t happy with, though, generally, these deals are ironed out from a high level before the pick is even used to hopefully avoid wasting the pick. For a senior, though, he forfeits that leverage by returning to school in hopes that he can outperform his current draft position and into a higher one with a higher bonus slot.

 

[Vols330]

I also wonder if Leath sees Tidwell, Burns, and Dollander coming in and decides it's not worth the risk of potentially not making the weekend rotation.

 

[preacherman20]

That is not true. A lot of seniors get good money because of their slot. I think he and Sean could gain in draft status by coming back and having a great year. The question with both would be where they would fit in the rotation to gain status. If you are drafted early, the team has to pay you close to slot money or they are fined. That is why it exists is because the players were mad that teams would not pay the correct amount to players according to their draft slot. You can't help but look at Kopps and Bednar and see that coming back for another year is beneficial if you have a great year. Neither were considered very high before this year's season.

 

[OldTimer]

Kevin Kopps is a prime example, he's a 5th year senior with no leverage and got picked with the 99th selection, +/-$580,000 signing bonus. Now he may take a little less, but it sure beats a 12th round payday.......

 

[cncchris33]

That is not true. A lot of seniors get good money because of their slot. I think he and Sean could gain in draft status by coming back and having a great year. The question with both would be where they would fit in the rotation to gain status. If you are drafted early, the team has to pay you close to slot money or they are fined. That is why it exists is because the players were mad that teams would not pay the correct amount to players according to their draft slot. You can't help but look at Kopps and Bednar and see that coming back for another year is beneficial if you have a great year. Neither were considered very high before this year's season.

I thought fines only came into play for teams that paid over slot as part of the competitive balance rules, and depending on how much over, they could see additional fines (taxes) as well as forfeiting their next two 1st rd picks. I’m not aware of any penalty for signing under slot value.

And sure, coming back to school is beneficial for some guys. I don’t know that anyone is saying it isn’t. It’s certainly not cut and dry.

 

[cncchris33]

Kevin Kopps is a prime example, he's a 5th year senior with no leverage and got picked with the 99th selection, +/-$580,000 signing bonus. Now he may take a little less, but it sure beats a 12th round payday.......

Sure it does. Who is saying otherwise?

 

[Ryno14]

Coach V was on The Swain Event this morning. ,Great interview with Ben and Swain.




Interview from 31:32-44:57.

• Talked about his extension, MLB Draft results, and NIL.
• Talked about Burns, Spikes, Stephenson, Hunley, Russell, Lipicius, and Walsh.
• He thinks Spikes will sign with Tampa Bay.
• Excited about Burns and Stephenson.
• He says that Russell, Lipicius are looking into free agent deals, but are also considering returning next year. Walsh is too, but probably will return.
• Coach V thinks there's a great chance that 2 out 3 will return. I like what he said about any of them returning in that it's important to have "a link in the chain" back to this year's team. It reminds me of men's hoops and Fulky's and Pons ties back to the previous teams.
• He talked about stadium renovations. Talks are ongoing, but they didn't want to hold up the announcement of the extension for recruiting purposes, and easing fan base anxiety / reassuring the fan base.
• He talked about the role and importance of the fanbase (in the NIL, passion, etc.). He says the passion will motivate the staff even more moving forward.

Do we think it’s odd or weird that we’ve heard nothing about or from Moore?

 

[OldTimer]

Sure it does. Who is saying otherwise?

I think it could be said simpler that Leath could potentially make more money if he came back to schoool next year. Yes, he would lose leverage from a negotiaing standpoint however he could resonably make more money as a higher draft pick by increasing his stock as teams see that he has lights out stuff.

The bigger question is whether or not he wants to enroll in school again and go through the school grind or jsut go ahead and make the leap to pro ball.

 

[cncchris33]

I think it could be said simpler that Leath could potentially make more money if he came back to schoool next year. Yes, he would lose leverage from a negotiaing standpoint however he could resonably make more money as a higher draft pick by increasing his stock as teams see that he has lights out stuff.

The bigger question is whether or not he wants to enroll in school again and go through the school grind or jsut go ahead and make the leap to pro ball.

Totally agree. That is why I questioned how much leverage he really has as a 12th rounder, anyway. Coming back and staying healthy probably results in a high draft position and more money in the first place.

 

[TN_gal]

Do we think it’s odd or weird that we’ve heard nothing about or from Moore?

Yes, the same question also crossed my mind. Curious about any updates on him.

 

[nashvillepanther]

Kevin Kopps is a prime example, he's a 5th year senior with no leverage and got picked with the 99th selection, +/-$580,000 signing bonus. Now he may take a little less, but it sure beats a 12th round payday.......

Being a Golden Spikes finalist isn't the norm for most players. Another factor to consider.

 

[TN_gal]

Coach V was on Sports Talk with Jimmy and Vince. Fantastic interview touching upon the MLB Draft, his new contract extension, and the future of the program.

• Went in depth on a few guys including Spikes, House, Burns, and also talked a bit about Dooney (suggested that he would benefit from getting the college experience).
• Went in depth about Leath, Hunley, Russell, Lipicus, and Walsh.
• Talked about the future of the program and how the coaches and players need to, and will, become more active in the community to keep the momentum going, and continue growing the fan base and program.
• Talked about how the goal for next year’s team is not increasing the win total , but upholding the standard and culture set by this year’s team.
• Re: his extension - he was pleased with the increased pool of money for his staff …how it provides a shield for them would deter other programs from poaching),

I thought this was a particularly insightful interview about the future of the program and about the overall state of Tennessee athletics. I think we are great hands with Coach V as our head coach.

 

[Halph66]

Coach V was on Sports Talk with Jimmy and Vince. Fantastic interview touching upon the MLB Draft, his new contract extension, and the future of the program.

• Went in depth on a few guys including Spikes, House, Burns, and also talked a bit about Dooney (suggested that he would benefit from getting the college experience).
• Went in depth about Leath, Hunley, Russell, Lipicus, and Walsh.
• Talked about the future of the program and how the coaches and players need to, and will, become more active in the community to keep the momentum going, and continue growing the fan base and program.
• Talked about how the goal for next year’s team is not increasing the win total , but upholding the standard and culture set by this year’s team.
• Re: his extension - he was pleased with the increased pool of money for his staff …how it provides a shield for them would deter other programs from poaching),

I thought this was a particularly insightful interview about the future of the program and about the overall state of Tennessee athletics. I think we are great hands with Coach V as our head coach.

That guy gets it. Well spoken, humble and driven. I would hand him the keys to my son any day. We are very fortunate to have him leading our program. He will do great things. GBO! The future is bright.

 

[matts42012]

Per Wes Rucker, after he followed up with “sources” when asked about Moore, “There are no issues with Moore. You can expect him to play at Tennessee unless something weird happens.”

Also noted that Kessler may just turn pro.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

You’re misunderstanding what the actual leverage is. I’ve tried explaining it, but I’m either doing a poor job, or you just aren’t grasping it.

I understand that by coming back and pitching well and staying healthy, he can improve his stock, but that isn’t “leverage” for next year. That is simply improving your standing in the eyes of scouts, which we would expect he’d do and earn more money via a higher draft position in 2022 vs 2021. He is still stuck with whatever he gets, next year, though, because he no longer has the threat of saying, “No thanks”, and returning to school. THAT is the leverage element he currently has.

OK, I'm with you. Where we were missing each other is my loose definition of "leverage." I have always defined it in a negotiation meaning as control of supply of something that is in demand. I didn't take into acount something I know very well, and that is that MLB is a monopoly, and if they are dealing with a college kid out of eligibility, they hold all the cards as far as options. I.e. a kid can't use a second offer as leverage like in the real world. We agree on the basic points. Thanks for hanging in there with me!

 

[cncchris33]

OK, I'm with you. Where we were missing each other is my loose definition of "leverage." I have always defined it in a negotiation meaning as control of supply of something that is in demand. I didn't take into acount something I know very well, and that is that MLB is a monopoly, and if they are dealing with a college kid out of eligibility, they hold all the cards as far as options. I.e. a kid can't use a second offer as leverage like in the real world. We agree on the basic points. Thanks for hanging in there with me!

Bingo

 

[ClasslessVol]

Per Wes Rucker, after he followed up with “sources” when asked about Moore, “There are no issues with Moore. You can expect him to play at Tennessee unless something weird happens.”

Also noted that Kessler may just turn pro.

Dang it’d suck to miss out on Kessler