USU line

#52
#52
GAVol said:
Why on earth would anybody on the outside looking in have any confidence in Tennessee football other than knowing we had a nice recruiting class?
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Well, my concern is more that the line is moving so much so fast. Not that we're a popular upset pick, but just what's explaining the shift. People are uneasy, as am I, given the betting line shifts towards the underdogs in the TAMU/SCar and Vandy/Temple games and how those turned out.
 
#53
#53
Roustabout said:
Tell it to Vegas. I don't set the line.
I'll be cheering for UT on Sunday night.
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i was just telling you bc you were so fast to tell everyone how bad we have been and what we lost. You dont want to mention the other teams issues though.

btw its the offshore thats at 5. So i dont need to tell Vegas. Vegas is still around 7 points.
 
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#54
#54
GoBigOrange86 said:
Well, my concern is more that the line is moving so much so fast. Not that we're a popular upset pick, but just what's explaining the shift. People are uneasy, as am I, given the betting line shifts towards the underdogs in the TAMU/SCar and Vandy/Temple games and how those turned out.
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It seems to me that this line of thinking is why gambling is so profitable....for the house.

You might be incredibly successful, and I hope you are. I don't gamble but I am an interested observer.
 
#58
#58
daj2576 said:
According to the data I see Vegas still has UT at -7. Offshore betting has dropped UT -5. The betting public is betting for UT about 62% to 37%.

I would suggest that the sharps aren't moving this line but those who are shifting their bets due to some visible upsets the past few days.

That's just my opinion though.
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Vegas opened -7. Presently, many casinos in Vegas are sitting at -4.5 to -6. Offshore is indeed at -5. As someone who has used side betting as a second income for 7 years, I've bet $1 and as much as $3,000 a game -- sharps are moving the line. However, a buddy and I wondered if they are baiting it for before kickoff.

Edit: Meant to add that the majority of movement on Utah St is the moneyline to win outright.

Regardless of all this, I think UT wins. I just find it interesting.
 
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#59
#59
I think our team having a chip on their shoulders is really going to affect the game.
 
#60
#60
TCbodybuilder said:
Vegas opened -7. Presently, many casinos in Vegas are sitting at -4.5 to -6. Offshore is indeed at -5. As someone who has used side betting as a second income for 7 years, I've bet $1 and as much as $3,000 a game -- sharps are moving the line. However, a buddy and I wondered if they are baiting it for before kickoff.
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How can you be sure sharps are moving the line and not lemmings who have had their lunch eaten by betting home favorites and losing?

EDIT: I ask because I've never seen anything that would prove that besides what "insiders" say, and those insiders usually have some connection to the house. This means, to me, their justification for drumming up excitement is arguably an indictment of the validity of the information.
 
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#61
#61
daj2576 said:
How can you be sure sharps are moving the line and not lemmings who have had their lunch eaten by betting home favorites and losing?
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I suppose that could be the case. However, the initial jump in line movement favoring USU was before any games took place. 9 times outta 10 that is sharp movement. Initially 70% were hitting the Vols, yet the line fell. Granted, it could be a mixture of factors at this point I will admit.
 
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#62
#62
TCbodybuilder said:
I suppose that could be the case. However, the initial jump in line movement favoring USU was before any games took place. 9 times outta 10 that is sharp movement. Initially 70% were hitting the Vols, yet the line fell. Granted, it could be a mixture I will admit.
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Interesting. Where do you get your data, if I may ask.
 
#63
#63
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#66
#66
i just cant wait til we play this game and its over with. tired of everyone making predictions about how garbage we are and how USU is the New England Patriots.
 
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#67
#67
TCbodybuilder said:
Betting Sites -- Odds Shark. Not sure why it says betting sites

Sports Betting Strategies - Free Picks, NFL Picks and NBA Picks - Sportsbook Spy - Pregame.com

Vegasinsider.com

Sportsbook.ag

These are usually my go to sites. I also have some well placed sources if need be. That is for pro and college and I'm just a nobody.
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Good stuff.

The data that I have available, and I don't really know how reliable it is, shows that the past 24 hours has seen a 1 point movement. That, to me, suggests that there are people panicking when nothing else has changed.

The volume is still about 62% for UT, and 38% for USU. Interestingly, from what I can see, LVH, the Mirage, and Station are all still at about UT -6.5. Some offshore books are down to -4.5 UT.
 
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#68
#68
Off topic but wondering if you could explain what happened on the Vandy -- Temple line this week. Vandy opened up as a 17 pt favorite but the line dropped to 10 by game time. What was going on there?
 
#69
#69
daj2576 said:
According to the data I see Vegas still has UT at -7. Offshore betting has dropped UT -5. The betting public is betting for UT about 62% to 37%.

I would suggest that the sharps aren't moving this line but those who are shifting their bets due to some visible upsets the past few days.

That's just my opinion though.
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You present good data most of the time but in this case that's not the reason.
 
#70
#70
I'm not worried about something going on in Vegas. It's the same two teams playing that we have known for months. Vols by double digits so 10 AT THE LEAST
 
#71
#71
daj2576 said:
According to the data I see Vegas still has UT at -7. Offshore betting has dropped UT -5. The betting public is betting for UT about 62% to 37%.

I would suggest that the sharps aren't moving this line but those who are shifting their bets due to some visible upsets the past few days.

That's just my opinion though.
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If your volume numbers are correct... Than it absolutely means sharps are moving the line.

62% of volume for UT should move the line in favor of UT, but the line is moving opposite of volume.
 
#73
#73
daj2576 said:
Good stuff.

The data that I have available, and I don't really know how reliable it is, shows that the past 24 hours has seen a 1 point movement. That, to me, suggests that there are people panicking when nothing else has changed.

The volume is still about 62% for UT, and 38% for USU. Interestingly, from what I can see, LVH, the Mirage, and Station are all still at about UT -6.5. Some offshore books are down to -4.5 UT.
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Everything I've seen to this point indicate the sharps are moving the line also. It's been a fairly slow trend since Wednesday or so, dropping .5 to 1 every day holding roughly the same volume for each team.

It's not the massive drop that Temple/Vandy saw yesterday, but it's more similar to the TAMU/SC and UTSA/Houston drop.
 
#74
#74
silentearth1973 said:
Everything I've seen to this point indicate the sharps are moving the line also. It's been a fairly slow trend since Wednesday or so, dropping .5 to 1 every day holding roughly the same volume for each team.

It's not the massive drop that Temple/Vandy saw yesterday, but it's more similar to the TAMU/SC and UTSA/Houston drop.
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It's interesting, to be sure. I am not gambler, and this stuff is not my wheelhouse. I spent a great deal of time this summer reading and crunching some numbers to better understand the gambling market.

It is baffling in a way. There is so much misinformation that seems to perpetuate itself about how spreads are set, how they move, and much of it is derived from pure speculation. I am trying to get a better handle on it all.
 
#75
#75
Roustabout said:
USU has played much better teams close.
They have already developed a culture and system of winning. Butch had a losing record year one and lost both lines.
I'm sorry, what's the question?
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USU is riding their reputation but the players that built it have moved on. USU lost more players than us, recruited worse and by all indications had a terrible Summer Camp.

We will beat them soundly IMO similar to Ole Miss - Boise State.

Our defense is much better than last year, especially LB, Secondary and DE.

Special Teams will be just that...Special.

WR & TE...plenty of ball to go around to plenty of open players.
 
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