UT or OSU for the 8-seed? (Data)

[VolCalls]

Yeah. It’s insane that UT ticket office sent an email to the donors saying we get 1000 tickets. 500 will sit in upper bowl and the other 500 in lower bowl. TN will use the other 2500 for admin

Not just admin. Coaches, athletic dept staff, university leadership, huge donors, trustees, students, and then there’s the player pass list (each player gets 4 tickets, I believe). 3,500 tickets for an opponent doesn’t go very far.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

He looks like Butterbean.
View attachment 702806

I actually me Butterbean at a flea market in Sevierville a few years ago. Really cool guy.

 

[vol94]

Not just admin. Coaches, athletic dept staff, university leadership, huge donors, trustees, students, and then there’s the player pass list (each player gets 4 tickets, I believe). 3,500 tickets for an opponent doesn’t go very far.

That’s what I meant. I was quoting the email from UT admin

 

[adam.vol]

What do you mean? The Arkansas AD is on the committee and three others have SEC ties.

There was a VN member who wrote a very good summary about this yesterday. I think it’s worth reading. I have quoted it below because I don’t know how to link to another thread otherwise. You should visit the thread because it includes a map that really adds a new perspective.

It is insightful to know where the CFP Committee members are from.

It's not an exact science, because they're all sports or journalism professionals who have held jobs across the country: in college, in the pros (not just football, other sports), and in the media. But if you read their bios, you get a pretty good feel for where their hearts might be now.

I'll give just two examples of the complexity involved: Gary Pinkel played football at Kent State in Ohio; then bounced as an assistant coach from there to Washington, back to Ohio at Bowling Green, and back to Washington. His longest stint in those days was 6 years at Washington. Then as a head coach, he was with Toledo 10 years, then Mizzou for 15. Mizzou is where he retired from coaching.

Hard to say which of those holds his heart foremost, but his lifetime footprint is mostly in the Mid-west, from Ohio across to Mizzou. The time out west in Washington is the outlier. BECAUSE my suspicion is that the SEC is way under-represented in the Committee, I went with Mizzou as Gary Pinkel's first love. But it could be Toledo.

Second example: Kelly Whiteside. She was a student at Rutgers, then Columbia, studying journalism. She has served as a journalism professor at Columbia and Montclair for a decade and a half, and has written mostly for USA Today (14 years) but also for Newsday, Sports Illustrated, and the New York Times. So her footprint is all over the northeast. She probably thinks of herself as a New Yorker. I put her star at Rutgers, in Jersey.


The 13 committee members map out like this:

Chris Ault -- Nevada
Chet Gladchuk -- Navy or Boston College (charted him Navy)
Jim Grobe -- Wake Forest or Virginia (charted him Wake)
Warde Manuel -- Michigan
Randall McDaniel -- Arizona State
Gary Pinkel -- Mizzou or Toledo (charted him Mizzou)
Mack Rhoades -- Baylor
Mike Riley -- Oregon State or Nebraska (charted him Oregon St)
David Sayler -- Miami
Will Shields -- Nebraska
Kelly Whiteside -- USA Today writer; Rutgers or Columbia (charted Rutgers)
Carla Williams -- Virginia
Hunter Yuracheck -- Arkansas

On a map, that looks like this:
View attachment 702316

Three of the 13 are from the Pacific/Mountain West area ... Three are mid-western ... one is B12 ... and five are Atlantic Coast footprint. Only one, Arkansas, is SEC. Well, two if you count Mizzou. Most of us probably don't, lol.

That big, open nothing from the SEC part of Texas, across Louisiana, all across the deep south plus up into South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky, that could be a sign of SEC under-representation.

The Committee might counter that two of its members played sports in the SEC (Mike Riley, the Oregon State star on the map, was a Bama football player; and Carla Williams, the Virginia star, was an UGa women's BBall athlete). That's not where their hearts seem to be based on a lifelong career.

Is this a problem? Dunno. Maybe it's something for Sankey to spend more time on, or maybe it's not as anemic for our conference as it seems.

Just thought it was worthy of us being aware of it.

Go Vols!

 

[vol94]

True, but isn’t that punishment?

I would say so. SMU should be in before a the loss Bama team. I’m surprised but not shocked Bama made the field. But, we still have games to play so who knows.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

OU, NCSU, UK all underperformed

IU overperformed

Really not any more complex than that..

 

[Delmar]

And lost to a really bad Michigan team I might add. That is utterly ridiculous that they only dropped 4 spots.

 

[luthervol]

I’ve been to too many Music City Bowls to take my eye off of the refs. I’m on the side of there needs to be reform in a terrible way.

Anyone who watched the game stolen from GA Tech Friday knows the refs can and do impact the game for a desired outcome.

 

[luthervol]

You know its crazy GT out played UGA @ UGA & basically it was anybody’s game. For the committee they just dismiss that UGA basically got outplayed at home by a team from a conference that will just get 1 team in the playoffs & they’re rewarded. We need to start winning to get favorable calls & placement, you have to be the money team for your conference to get favorable treatment. Right now in SEC its Bama UGA & Texas & the others red headed stepchildren ALSO teams.

For ga to move up after that performance is indefensible.

 

[adam.vol]

Anyone who watched the game stolen from GA Tech Friday knows the refs can and do impact the game for a desired outcome.

I am suddenly remembering the lines to a song..

That's the night that the lights went out in Georgia
That's the night that they hung an innocent man
Well, don't trust your soul to no backwoods Southern lawyer
'Cause the judge in the town's got bloodstains on his hands

 

[VolCalls]

Then Georgia stays at 5 even if they lose because they can't drop? And what about Notre Dame - they can't move either so PSU can't drop below them and can't change locations with Georgia if Georgia loses as well because that would mean PSU moved relative to Notre Dame.

It also implies that the lowest Texas can drop is to 3 - they can't drop below Notre Dame. And Oregon can't drop below Notre Dame.

So basically, Notre Dame could get pushed to # 5 by a team that lost (and maybe even gets blown out in the championship game) because they can only move down.

And this has to apply to all teams so if upsets occur with SMU and Boise State the following MUST happen:

And Boise State can't drop below 10, so if UNLV wins, they are in too.
And SMU can't drop below 9, so if Clemson wins, Clemson is in too.

The Big 12 winner is also in - so Indiana, Alabama and Miami are OUT.

I really don't think he was thinking about the ramifications of what he said. Because to hold to that, he has to be willing put boot Indiana, Alabama and Miami if there are upsets in the Mountain West and ACC games.

I think Manuel is a buffoon, and it has nothing to do with conference bias. He just talks in circles like he doesn’t understand what he’s doing.

 

[VolCalls]

There may be a bunch of winners before this is over - he is going to regret saying what he did when he has to explain to Boise State why they are out when they lose to UNLV or explain to SMU why they are out when the lose to Clemson. Because he just told both of them they are in.

I think the nuance is that a CCG winner could be so impressive that they jump multiple teams ahead of them who may have lost, or not even played, in their CCG. That’s not penalizing those teams as much as it is rewarding that particular team for impressing the committee.

 

[VolCalls]

There was a VN member who wrote a very good summary about this yesterday. I think it’s worth reading. I have quoted it below because I don’t know how to link to another thread otherwise. You should visit the thread because it includes a map that really adds a new perspective.

I appreciate this but it’s nothing more than conjecture. Someone is suddenly more loyal to the region where they spent their working career versus where they spent 4-5 years of their formidable youth and came of age while earning a degree and playing a sport for that school? I suppose it could happen but there’s a reason individuals from all walks of life, no matter where they live or work, retain a soft spot for their alma mater. “It just means more.”

 

[Delmar]

I’m not going to worry about it much until Sunday when the final ranking is confirmed. But I know two things:
1) Whether we go on the road or not, I’m dang sure happy to be in it versus not especially considering the road we’ve traveled since 2007. It’s been a long road back to relevance and it’s worth celebrating.
2) Would love to see a home game at Neyland. But if we do have to go on the road to Columbus, their confidence has to be really shaken after the Michigan debacle. And I can guarantee that we are better than Michigan especially on defense. As someone said earlier, weather might be a concern but again, I say let’s saddle up and get to it. Gonna have to beat some good teams before it’s over and it might as well start with Ohio State. If the committee wants show the Big 10 some favoritism, let’s stick it to them where the sun don’t shine.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

You're wrong...Georgia is not staying at 5 with 3 losses.

The absolute worst for Georgia is that they go from 5 to 6 if they lose. How the committee slyly stuck OSU between us and them there's no way they drop below Tennessee.

 

[volfan102455]

Actually, what he said is that teams not playing could not be compared to other teams not playing and thus Ole Miss could not move ahead of Miami, Miami would not move ahead of Bama, Bama could not move ahead of Tennessee. Teams can drop out though. Miami is definitely out - they will be replaced by the Big 12 champion. Bama may or may not survive. Indiana is borderline safe. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee are in regardless of any upsets.

He did say they would evaluate the results of the teams that were playing and move them based on performance on the field.

I took this as for Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, Bama and Miami - their relationship to each other is set.

That doesn't imply that won't do some swaps due to the games. They can reposition the winner and loser of Oregon / PSU and Texas / Georgia and SMU / Clemson and Boise State / UNLV wherever they feel they belong based on outcomes on the field - which honestly, they need to do since it impacts seeds 1 - 4.

To hold to what he said they would just need to place them in the context of the other teams.

Let's say PSU and Georgia get beat badly. They can push them both down but need to keep them in context of the order above. In order words Bama would not jump in front of Indiana but those teams could be placed anywhere in rankings.

- They can't just swap PSU and OSU, but they could push Notre Dame up a spot and place OSU after Notre Dame and PSU after OSU.
- They could swap Georgia and Tennessee because that doesn't violate the teams not playing.
- They could move the loser of Texas and Georgia anywhere in the top 12.
- They could move the loser of Oregon and PSU anywhere in the top 12.
- They can position the winners anywhere they see fit which will allow them to position for seeds 1 to 4. For example, they may want to move the Mountain West to the 3rd seed if Clemson wins. They may want to move the SEC team to the #1 seed if Oregon loses and Texas wins.

I did not hear him say that the conference "loser" was guaranteed a place.

 

[CPVOL]

I’m sure I’m over reaching but it seems like every year, OSU is hyped up by ESPN. It’s really the biggest reason I have for disliking them. The National Media carries their water no matter what

 

[luthervol]

Anyone watching the basketball game?
Chaz Lanier may be another Dalton Knecht.

About to go 8-0 for the first time in 24 years.

 

[volfan102455]

I’m sure I’m over reaching but it seems like every year, OSU is hyped up by ESPN. It’s really the biggest reason I have for disliking them. The National Media carries their water no matter what

This is true. Miami had their second loss to a 9-3 Syracuse team on the road and dropped 6 - Syracuse is now ranked at 22. OSU only dropped 4 spots after losing to an unranked Michigan team at home.

 

[BreatheUT]

Ohio State at 8 is a surprise. A late season home loss to a Michigan team that's one of the worst offenses in major college football.

 

[adam.vol]

I appreciate this but it’s nothing more than conjecture. Someone is suddenly more loyal to the region where they spent their working career versus where they spent 4-5 years of their formidable youth and came of age while earning a degree and playing a sport for that school? I suppose it could happen but there’s a reason individuals from all walks of life, no matter where they live or work, retain a soft spot for their alma mater. “It just means more.”

I thought the post was about just that. It reinforces that the committee’s current members could not possibly be relied upon to offer equal representation. It is not necessarily about who they are biased towards.

 

[njvols]

My mind says OSU gets the nod, my heart says UT. Metrics won’t be our friend. I also think they are overvaluing the Big 10 but it’s likely too late to make a total course correction. I also think they would look at something like avoiding matchups that have already occurred (TN/GA and PSU or Oregon/OSU). There’s also a part of me that thinks they might think a UT/OSU matchup would be more compelling/competitive at Neyland. Likely grasping at straws. If OSU gets the #8 seed, I almost prefer being lower and going to PSU or ND. Of course, the championship games likely screw everything up anyway so I’m just hoping to be above OSU somehow,someway tonight. We’ll know shortly…

Yep, I'd guess if PSU loses to Oregon, and Clemson wins ACC, we'd probably be at PSU, which I'd rather play there than OSU. Just me, regardless of which team is better, I like the UT/PSU matchup

 

[Volwonder1]

I thought the committee made a big point about viewing the most recent performances more heavily.

We win that metric hands down.
ohio state's most recent performance sucked eggs.

Tell me how half of the Ohio state players would even be eligible to play considering the amount of suspensions that should be handed down after the melee that took place in Michigan when the cops had to literally pepper spray their entire team.

 

[VolPack22]

Love how everyone glosses over Ohio State barely beating a Nebraska team quarterbacked by a true freshman at home. I hope we do end up going on the road to play them. Just so we can beat them in their house, send their overrated butts home in shambles, and their entire offseason will be filled with talks of firing their head coach while we go onto the next round and beat the number 1 team in the country. Everyone just assumes these Big Ten teams are good because the committee says so. I’ve watched them all play and neither of the 4 they are getting in would win the SEC. They wouldn’t even make the conference championship game.

 

[BreatheUT]

How many spots did #3 Georgia fall when they lost to #16 Ole Miss at home? 9 spots to #12

How many spots did #7 Tennessee fall by losing to #12 Georgia on the road? 4 spots to #11

Somehow losing to an unranked Michigan at home to end the year is only worth 4 spots?