UT or OSU for the 8-seed? (Data)

[joevol33]

Every projection I'm seeing has us going to ohio st, should be opposite after they lost to Michigan

 

[mrmax86]

why 6?

That's as far as I had to go to get to both losses for both teams

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

independent

Average Big 12 team is about 3.5 points behind the avg SEC team, Big 10 is about 4, ACC a little over a TD in the power 4 conferences. That's according to Sagarin.

 

[farmdogvol]

what's the ratio of B10 to other conference amongst committee members?

Chairman is from michigan, one other member played at Nebraska, but when they where Big12 not big10. The rest are scattered across the country. Sec has 1 dude from Arkansas.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Their performance in the top quartile of their schedule will keep them over us.

We were hurt by NCSU, UF, UK, and OU all underperforming and they were helped by IU overperforming...

 

[Tin Man]

what's the ratio of B10 to other conference amongst committee members?

Warde Manuel, Mike Riley, David Sayler, Will Shields, and Kelly Whiteside have B1G ties.

 

[UT97Vol]

Does the committee leader hate OSU more than he loves the Big 10? We can plant a Michigan flag at OSU’s sideline, if it helps.

Let’s just say Mr. Manuel owes us one after what his school did to us in ‘22.

 

[volfanhill]

I don't think either team has a right to biotch either way. Very even resumes. And I don't see UGA dropping if they lose in the SEC title game. The committee can not let schools be punished for conference championship losses. Otherwise the noise to make them go away increases. That's bad for business. Don't care what's happened in the past. New day new playoff new rules

 

[UT97Vol]

I don't think either team has a right to biotch either way. Very even resumes. And I don't see UGA dropping if they lose in the SEC title game. The committee can not let schools be punished for conference championship losses. Otherwise the noise to make them go away increases. That's bad for business. Don't care what's happened in the past. New day new playoff new rules

You didn’t read my other thread. Alabama and Georgia have dropped every time they lost the championship game. Over the past seven years. Why should this year be different?

 

[volfanhill]

You didn’t read my other thread. Alabama and Georgia have dropped every time they lost the championship game. Over the past seven years. Why should this year be different?

Bc the whole system is different. They are not going to punish a team for losing in the conference championship. You already have coaches mouthing off about not wanting to go if it will hurt them. This is big business. It's not about right or wrong or how they did it yesterday. I'm just telling you what's going to happen and why.

 

[UT97Vol]

I don't think either team has a right to biotch either way. Very even resumes. And I don't see UGA dropping if they lose in the SEC title game. The committee can not let schools be punished for conference championship losses. Otherwise the noise to make them go away increases. That's bad for business. Don't care what's happened in the past. New day new playoff new rules

You didn’t read my other thread. Alabama and Georgia have dropped every time they lost the championship game. Over the past seven y

Bc the whole system is different. They are not going to punish a team for losing in the conference championship. You already have coaches mouthing off about not wanting to go if it will hurt them. This is big business. It's not about right or wrong or how they did it yesterday. I'm just telling you what's going to happen and why.

And I’m telling you you’re wrong. Georgia will be in the 8/9 game if they lose. Guess we will see.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Game	Opponent	H/A	SOR	Opponent	H/A	SOR
1	UTC	Home	FCS	Akron	Home	111
2	NCSt	Neutral	68	WMich	Home	103
3	Kent	Home	134	Marsh	Home	40
4	OU	Away	31	MSU	Away	66
5	Ark	Away	45	Iowa	Home	37
6	UF	Home	25	Ore	Away	1
7	Bama	Home	10	Neb	Home	52
8	UK	Home	63	PSU	Away	4
9	MissSt	Home	105	Pur	Home	117
10	UGA	Away	2	NW	Away	85
11	UTEP	Home	127	IU	Home	8
12	Vandy	Away	41	Mich	Home	30

We played an FCS team, so it's only fair to drop OSU's highest number for comparison.

SOR Points
UT 651
OSU 537*

Points Per Game For-Against
UT 34-15
OSU 36-11*

Yards Per Game For-Against
UT 440-283
OSU 423-242

-We are both 10-2
-We both played 4 away games
-We both average +0.5 Turnover margin

On paper, OSU looks like the slightly better team. They did not play an FCS opponent this year, which helps them, and their average opponent strength is above ours. Considering their Playoff presence the last few years/brand recognition/etc, I do not anticipate we get put in over them unless the committee uses some logic-less word salad reason.

How about the fact that in their last game they looked horrid and scored a mere 10 points on their home field to a 6 win team and their coach will be fired as soon as the season ends?

Where's that in your data?

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Bc the whole system is different. They are not going to punish a team for losing in the conference championship. You already have coaches mouthing off about not wanting to go if it will hurt them. This is big business. It's not about right or wrong or how they did it yesterday. I'm just telling you what's going to happen and why.

Yeah but "not punishing" them can mean dropping them to the 12 seed but still leaving them in the playoffs.

To say that you can lose a huge title game and not drop a single spot in the rankings is utter lunacy.

If Georgia loses they still deserve to be a playoff team but NOT a host team.

You would never say that if Texas lost that they would not drop and not be any consequences! That's terrible logic.

 

[volfanhill]

Yeah but "not punishing" them can mean dropping them to the 12 seed but still leaving them in the playoffs.

To say that you can lose a huge title game and not drop a single spot in the rankings is utter lunacy.

If Georgia loses they still deserve to be a playoff team but NOT a host team.

You would never say that if Texas lost that they would not drop and not be any consequences! That's terrible logic.

The logic is protect the championship games. With UGA it's even easier to wash away. They've already beaten Texas. So it's a wash. I don't think you all understand how the committee will not allow conference championship games to be viewed as a henderence. Can't happen

 

[SteensVol]

Chairman is from michigan, one other member played at Nebraska, but when they where Big12 not big10. The rest are scattered across the country. Sec has 1 dude from Arkansas.

Well it’s a bit worse, 2 guys are from Missouri and we know Missouri hates the Vols due to a couple of 65 point beat downs. Wait, maybe that is the Michigan sentiment and it helps us? No wait actually OH St never beats Michigan so they like them highly rated. Oh well!

 

[SteensVol]

Bottom line last loss is the killer and 2 polls they would have to argue with will look like serious homerism! For what you guys have proven to be a 50/50 pick!

 

[UT97Vol]

The logic is protect the championship games. With UGA it's even easier to wash away. They've already beaten Texas. So it's a wash. I don't think you all understand how the committee will not allow conference championship games to be viewed as a henderence. Can't happen

That’s not the committee’s responsibility. Not their role or their mandate.

 

[K87vol]

My projections have us easily in front of OSU. It seems some people haven't watched the OSU MICH game.
You can't un-see that. It's too fresh..........
It's not like they looked good at all. If the people on the committee watched the game (as they should have) we should be good.

 

[UTblood4life]

Has any OSU players been suspended for the brawl?

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

Warde Manuel, Mike Riley, David Sayler, Will Shields, and Kelly Whiteside have B1G ties.

Riley, Yurachek, Williams, Sayler, Pinkel, and Rhoades all have ties to the SEC...that's 1 more than your list

 

[UTFranklinVol]

The logic is protect the championship games. With UGA it's even easier to wash away. They've already beaten Texas. So it's a wash. I don't think you all understand how the committee will not allow conference championship games to be viewed as a henderence. Can't happen

If this is the logic then Clemson should be in the playoffs without question because they are the second best team in the ACC win or lose.

You can't say that the championship only has benefit and no down side. I'm telling you if PSU gets destroyed by Oregon they WILL drop just like Indiana dropped when OSU beat them the same should be true for Georgia and Texas. Just because it happened in a title game and not the regular season should have zero bearing.

 

[UT97Vol]

My projections have us easily in front of OSU. It seems some people haven't watched the OSU MICH game.
You can't un-see that. It's too fresh..........
It's not like they looked good at all. If the people on the committee watched the game (as they should have) we should be good.

This is how I see. And though I’m quite adamant this is th way it should be there is one caveat I have to this I haven’t spilled yet and none of y’all are going to like it.

And that is if we are ahead of Ohio State tonight andPenn State State beats Oregon we have a problem. If that happens, Penn State probably moves to number one and Ohio State will have a win over the team that finished the season as the number one team in the nation. In the scenario, Ohio State would jump Tennessee on Sunday even if they’re behind us tonight and Oregon would be in front of us too.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

You didn’t read my other thread. Alabama and Georgia have dropped every time they lost the championship game. Over the past seven years. Why should this year be different?

Because they have said as much

 

[orange parmejohn]

Looking at the schedule in the OP. Man it feels like the NC St game was a lifetime ago

 

[UT97Vol]

Because they have said as much

No they haven’t.