Utah State WR

#51
#51
s1216 said:
Let me kow where those lines are. At the end of last year USU would have been a nine point favorite on a neutral field based on indexes. According to Danny Sheridan himself the formulas place very little weight on the incoming freshman class and a lot of weight on lost players. Explain to me how Utah State lost 16.5 pts more worth of players.
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4 of 5 OL
top rusher-1200+ yards
second top rusher 400+ yards
Entire Secondary (two were drafted)
2 other DBs in the rotation (they also got NFL FA deals)
top tackler( with the GB Packers now)
Outside LB
starting DE
starting DT
another DE
Daniel Gray starting at Corner and playing his first game in 2 yrs. ( go watch Troy '12)
top two WRs-combine for 1500 ish yards and over 100 catches ( 1 got a FA look with the Dolphins )
starting TE ( FA look with the Jags )
The other TE who started 9 and played in all 14 games left the team after JR Yr. (Gary Andersens Son)
QB and starting RB coming off severe knee injuries
No depth at all at RB.
also leading returning WR facing possible suspension
also lost projected starting 2014 Nickel to academic
violation in March (Jeremy Morris)

as bad as UTs depth is in some places they are thinner than we are in those same places (O Line and secondary)

Then they return even less experience than UT does. They go on the road 2000 miles to a hostile environment far from the dry Utah Air. I just think people are over selling USU based on last yr and they dont even look the same either
 
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#52
#52
RiseToTheTop said:
4 of 5 OL
Entire Secondary (two were drafted)
2 other DBs in the rotation
top tackler( with the GB Packers now)
Outside LB
DE
DT
another DE
top two WRS-combins for 1500 ish yards and over 100 catches
starting TE
QB and starting RB coming off severe knee injuries
No depth at all at RB.
also leading returning WR facing possible suspension
also lost projected starting 2014 Nickel to academic violation in March ( Jeremy Morris )
Click to expand...

Welp, that should end that discussion.
 
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#53
#53
RiseToTheTop said:
4 of 5 OL
top rusher-1200+ yards
second top rusher 400+ yards
Entire Secondary (two were drafted)
2 other DBs in the rotation (they also got NFL FA deals)
top tackler( with the GB Packers now)
Outside LB
starting DE
starting DT
another DE
Daniel Gray starting at Corner and playing his first game in 2 yrs. ( go watch Troy '12)
top two WRs-combine for 1500 ish yards and over 100 catches ( 1 got a FA look with the Dolphins )
starting TE ( FA look with the Jags )
The other TE who started 9 and played in all 14 games left the team after JR Yr. (Gary Andersens Son)
QB and starting RB coming off severe knee injuries
No depth at all at RB.
also leading returning WR facing possible suspension
also lost projected starting 2014 Nickel to academic
violation in March (Jeremy Morris)

as bad as UTs depth is in some places they are thinner than we are in those same places (O Line and secondary)

Then they return even less experience than UT does. They go on the road 2000 miles to a hostile environment far from the dry Utah Air. I just think people are over selling USU based on last yr and they dont even look the same either
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Anyone else got any questions? Lol.. Well said!
 
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#54
#54
They have never played in a place like Neyland before. QB/RB coming back from ACL/MCL tears and the possibility that their star WR will be out? This game is gonna be a blowout. GBO
 
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#55
#55
RiseToTheTop said:
4 of 5 OL
top rusher-1200+ yards
second top rusher 400+ yards
Entire Secondary (two were drafted)
2 other DBs in the rotation (they also got NFL FA deals)
top tackler( with the GB Packers now)
Outside LB
starting DE
starting DT
another DE
Daniel Gray starting at Corner and playing his first game in 2 yrs. ( go watch Troy '12)
top two WRs-combine for 1500 ish yards and over 100 catches ( 1 got a FA look with the Dolphins )
starting TE ( FA look with the Jags )
The other TE who started 9 and played in all 14 games left the team after JR Yr. (Gary Andersens Son)
QB and starting RB coming off severe knee injuries
No depth at all at RB.
also leading returning WR facing possible suspension
also lost projected starting 2014 Nickel to academic
violation in March (Jeremy Morris)

as bad as UTs depth is in some places they are thinner than we are in those same places (O Line and secondary)

Then they return even less experience than UT does. They go on the road 2000 miles to a hostile environment far from the dry Utah Air. I just think people are over selling USU based on last yr and they dont even look the same either
Click to expand...

But but but.... Nah uh! Um... Freshman this! Talent but lack of depth that!
 
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#56
#56
s1216 said:
Let me kow where those lines are. At the end of last year USU would have been a nine point favorite on a neutral field based on indexes. According to Danny Sheridan himself the formulas place very little weight on the incoming freshman class and a lot of weight on lost players. Explain to me how Utah State lost 16.5 pts more worth of players.
Click to expand...

You stink of troll. Have fun watching your beloved aggies get beat this august.
 
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#57
#57
KBVol said:
Welp, that should end that discussion.
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Let's hope.

Most football fans, even many pro pundits, try to compare teams who are built differently and have played totally dissimilar schedules. It is truly apples to oranges.

USU is not, nor has it recently been a team worthy of a top 25 birth. Don't confuse wins with quality wins but that is what polls do. Polls tend to allow a team from a minor conference in, ranked by numbers of wins, even if that means putting a team in or near the rankings who has no shot at actually beating many teams near them in the polls.

I look at the initial evaluation of a team by how well they recruit over the previous four years. Average those classes for any team and you get a really high correlation to wins (pick any two teams, the team with the higher four year average wins 70% of the time, regardless of location, weather, coach, moon cycle, etc).

Here is a brief and rough comparison for USU and UT.

UT is about as close to the most talented team in CFB (top 15), as USU is to the least (bottom 20).

In 2013, UT's average* win came against a team ranked in the 50's. Tennessee's best* win came against SCAR ranked about 18th, and worst* loss came against Vandy ranked about 48th.

In 2013, USU's average* win came against a team ranked in the 90's. USU's best* win came against Hawaii (ranked about 80) and their worst* loss came against a team ranked about 80 (Fresno State).

In other words, on their best day last year, USU (ranked 101) could beat a team ranked about 20 spots higher than them (Hawaii). They couldn't beat a team in the top ten (a mightily struggling USC), top 40 (Utah), or top 65 (Boise State). Even their "surprising" bowl win came against a NIU team ranked 91.

Give USU a team that recruits in the bottom 40 and they have a shot at looking really impressive, but they have little to no shot at beating a team ranked in the top half in recruiting, like UT.

I don't really care what the final point spread is in the game, it could be close, it could be a blow out, it could even be a loss for UT. Talent, however, says that there is at least a 70% probability that UT wins. A "W" is all that matters.

And that is only looking at last year. Tennessee's roster is more talented this year, while USU's roster actually got worse (without accounting for the attrition pointed out in this thread).

* by using the terms "best", "worst", or "average" I am referring to the four year recruiting rank of each team.

For a more in-depth discussion: If I Bleed Orange, I'm Bled Out: Don't Sweat Utah State.
 
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#58
#58
RiseToTheTop said:
4 of 5 OL
top rusher-1200+ yards
second top rusher 400+ yards
Entire Secondary (two were drafted)
2 other DBs in the rotation (they also got NFL FA deals)
top tackler( with the GB Packers now)
Outside LB
starting DE
starting DT
another DE
Daniel Gray starting at Corner and playing his first game in 2 yrs. ( go watch Troy '12)
top two WRs-combine for 1500 ish yards and over 100 catches ( 1 got a FA look with the Dolphins )
starting TE ( FA look with the Jags )
The other TE who started 9 and played in all 14 games left the team after JR Yr. (Gary Andersens Son)
QB and starting RB coming off severe knee injuries
No depth at all at RB.
also leading returning WR facing possible suspension
also lost projected starting 2014 Nickel to academic
violation in March (Jeremy Morris)

as bad as UTs depth is in some places they are thinner than we are in those same places (O Line and secondary)

Then they return even less experience than UT does. They go on the road 2000 miles to a hostile environment far from the dry Utah Air. I just think people are over selling USU based on last yr and they dont even look the same either
Click to expand...




I have to say, that is excellent research and perspective on your part. I rarely change my opinion based on VN posts, but this may do the trick. Well done, Rise.
 
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#60
#60
Troy was vs The Sal Defense. Anyone could get 700 on the Vols since Tennessee was scoring so fast themselves....
 
#63
#63
wmcovol said:
Troy was vs The Sal Defense. Anyone could get 700 on the Vols since Tennessee was scoring so fast themselves....
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See that's the problem I have with people putting it all on Sal's D. We score fast and the D that is depleted doesn't have time to rest. Idc how talented u r that's a concern...and Saban agrees with that. Why I don't bash or blame the '12 Vol D like so many on here do. Those boys played their hearts out from start to finish that year, but lack of depth and not being able to rest killed them. Perfect example was UF '12 after they stopped the fake punt, and we went 3 and out. That right there was one the first major negative pivotal moments of the season.

Problem with Bray as he was a "swagger" seeker, and had no game management ability....mainlyy no want for it. A good balance between the 2 would be ideal.
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#64
#64
Oskie Volum said:
See that's the problem I have with people putting it all on Sal's D. We score fast and the D that is depleted doesn't have time to rest. Idc how talented u r that's a concern...and Saban agrees with that. Why I don't bash or blame the '12 Vol D like so many on here do. Those boys played their hearts out from start to finish that year, but lack of depth and not being able to rest killed them. Perfect example was UF '12 after they stopped the fake punt, and we went 3 and out. That right there was one the first major negative pivotal moments of the season.
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was preaching this all last year. you cannot keep the same handful of guys on the field the entire game against an Oregon or mizzu that was as deep as the atlantic.
 
#66
#66
Oskie Volum said:
The Chuckie Keeton that shows up will be the deciding factor on if we blow them out, they keep it close (ie Troy '12 or USA '13) or if they end up beating us. Not knowing which version is playing until game time is the worse position to be in as an opposing coach imo.
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We're not getting beat by one man again. And that includes Gurley and Henry. We now have enough team speed that it will take a team effort to beat us!
 
#68
#68
IluvdoubleD's said:
was preaching this all last year. you cannot keep the same handful of guys on the field the entire game against an Oregon or mizzu that was as deep as the atlantic.
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Me too, but so many had their Gruden-colored glasses on they didn't care, or want to listen. Some as far as wanted us to lose...
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#69
#69
HuntlandVolinColo said:
We're not getting beat by one man again. And that includes Gurley and Henry. We now have enough team speed that it will take a team effort to beat us!
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Team speed without knowing the scheme isn't any better imo. Hesitation kills no matter how fast u r.

There are many positions i'd take a player that is a tick slower, but doesn't hesitate over a faster player who does due to not knowing where to be.

Just imho that's all...
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#70
#70
RiseToTheTop said:
Just wanted to give you guys an update on of our opponents and their recent happenings.

USU WR Bruce "JoJo" Natson was arrested today for a Theft Charge. Its a class A misdemeanor i believe meaning a theft for over $500 but less than $1500. So a Class B petty theft in Utah is for less than $500 apparently if you want to be a little more detailed about the laws there. So apparently his charge is a little more serious. Not sure if this will mean anything for the first game although there's probably a decent chance it will. He is their leading returning WR with 59 Catches. He is a tiny slot guy and most of his catches took place near the LOS. He is also their Punt Returner. May not mean anything but then again it might just giving you guys a heads up. Natson is also a former HS teammate and good friend of former Vol Daniel Gray
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So what he stole was worth more than 500, but less than 1500.00. My guess would be he stole the middle age, slightly overweight 5th wife of a neighbor or relative. Again... Just a guess
 
#73
#73
s1216 said:
You do realize currently Tennessee is a two point underdog don't you?
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First, they're not.

Second, I'm not sure I care what "Vegas" has to say in this particular case. UT is more talented and it isn't close. IF UT's staff are the coaches we all think they are then USU is in for a very long day.
 
#74
#74
Oskie Volum said:
I agree with u that based on talent we should beat them by a lot. We just aren't in any kind of position to be confident going into any game to win just based on talent. That's why I used Troy, and USA games as examples. Letting these types of teams stick around can bite us in the butt every once in awhile.
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Everything is predicated on the assumption that Jones and company have at least a moderate amount of competence. One of the marks of the "right" coach for UT will be that they generally smack undermanned teams around.... They DON'T let inferior teams stick around.

And for the record if it weren't for the uncertainty of which Keeton comes out to play I'd be a bit more confident. Said it before...I'm taking every game as they come along. Imo we aren't in any kind of position to not take the season game by game.
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Keeton's greatness has always been a function of the competition he played. If Jones and his DC can't gameplan to contain one player when they have superior athletes on D to their athletes on O... then UT's problems are much worse than USU.
 
#75
#75
Remember the talk about WKU last season leading up to the game? "Petrino will be a tough match,etc."??
Sounds familiar to this talk of Utah Sate
 
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