Utah State WR

#101
#101
sjt18 said:
I'm not going to seethe. I'm stating what I believe to be true. If it is a 10 pt game that launches a 6-8 win season... I promise I won't harp on the game being closer than the talent should have made it.

Margins mean a great deal about the competitiveness of a game and two teams. I must be confused about what you are trying to say because you are MUCH smarter than to think they don't. If you chose to, you could come up with a "close" game predictor like your 70% predictor based on recruiting classes.

The implications of what you seem to be saying is that if UT loses to Bama by 5 and Chatt loses to them by 55... we really can't use that as a demonstration of UT being better than Chatt.

There is nothing subjective or irrational about saying that an LSU team that pushes Bama to the wire and loses by 2 is very likely better than a UK team that loses to them by 40.


That is true. But a close loss is almost always an indication that you are closer to winning than a blowout.

A kid that scores a 59% on an exam is closer to being a passing student than one that scores 19%. It IS a very fair and objective proof that one student is better and further along than the other.
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My view, not conclusive but educated, is that score differentials are where all of the variables live. Wins and losses are reasonably stable in relation to talent evals and that is where the most hay can be made in determining who is really a better team (especially when viewed across a season).

To do otherwise tends to magnify exceptions. Think of how Auburn was viewed. They performed exactly to talent expectations across the season, but Malzahn was anointed king of cfb because of one win:Bama. That one win only offset their upset at the hands of LSU yet the conclusion of most ignored all of that.

"Competitiveness" really means nothing. Boiled down its just a way to rationalize a loss. Oh, we were close. That is the same argument many USU fans have made. They are good because they almost beat (fill in the blank).

Nope. It's a sloppy use of the transitive property.

My point, though, was far less complex. You are creating numbers out of thin air (we should beat USU by 17) but to what end? What happens if we don't win by 17 but still win? Is anything damaged except the arbitrary goal you've set to judge Jones, or your ego?

I don't mean to indict your ego singularly. We all have one and it tends to manifest itself in ways that are surprising.
 
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#102
#102
IluvdoubleD's said:
was preaching this all last year. you cannot keep the same handful of guys on the field the entire game against an Oregon or mizzu that was as deep as the atlantic.
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Understand this thought vs a top 5-10 team like Oregon that has a prolific offense. Can't quite agree with the thought that we shouldn't have tried to score quickly vs Troy. Dooley/Sunseri's defense gave up 40+ pts and 700+ yds.....vs Troy. It shouldn't have mattered if we scored on every single offensive play we ran.......vs Troy.

Fun fact.... in the same 2012 season, MTSU gave up 2 fewer touchdowns and 260 fewer yards than Dooley/Sunseri's UT defense ......vs Troy.
 
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#103
#103
sjt18 said:
It does not matter to anyone not betting what bookies or pundits say. UT should dominate this team.

Of course it won't be the end of the world... it could be a pretty long nail in the coffin of Jones though.
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It would be pretty bad, but you don't put a nail in a coach's coffin 13 games into his career.
 
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#104
#104
At least we all know that Vegas is not in business to make money...no sir(sarcasm). "Whatever Vegas Says is Right" mentality + " I use this this formula to justify Vegas being right most of the time"= LOST MONEY$. Betting lines are just that....Betting Lines.
 
#106
#106
RiseToTheTop said:
Just wanted to give you guys an update on of our opponents and their recent happenings.

USU WR Bruce "JoJo" Natson was arrested today for a Theft Charge. Its a class A misdemeanor i believe meaning a theft for over $500 but less than $1500. So a Class B petty theft in Utah is for less than $500 apparently if you want to be a little more detailed about the laws there. So apparently his charge is a little more serious. Not sure if this will mean anything for the first game although there's probably a decent chance it will. He is their leading returning WR with 59 Catches. He is a tiny slot guy and most of his catches took place near the LOS. He is also their Punt Returner. May not mean anything but then again it might just giving you guys a heads up. Natson is also a former HS teammate and good friend of former Vol Daniel Gray
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So you're saying he has no breakaway speed?

:eek:lol:

Tennesseeduke
 
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#108
#108
WoodsmanVol said:
. Lane Hurd Pearson is up North and all Malone. A Young Wolf with a Pig at the Helm will leave no Croom for the Aggies who will gag.
storm-lightning_00404077.jpg
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Woodsman one of your best efforts. I wish I had thought of it. Especially "all Malone"
 
#109
#109
daj2576 said:
My view, not conclusive but educated, is that score differentials are where all of the variables live. Wins and losses are reasonably stable in relation to talent evals and that is where the most hay can be made in determining who is really a better team (especially when viewed across a season).

To do otherwise tends to magnify exceptions. Think of how Auburn was viewed. They performed exactly to talent expectations across the season, but Malzahn was anointed king of cfb because of one win:Bama. That one win only offset their upset at the hands of LSU yet the conclusion of most ignored all of that.

"Competitiveness" really means nothing. Boiled down its just a way to rationalize a loss. Oh, we were close. That is the same argument many USU fans have made. They are good because they almost beat (fill in the blank).

Nope. It's a sloppy use of the transitive property.

My point, though, was far less complex. You are creating numbers out of thin air (we should beat USU by 17) but to what end? What happens if we don't win by 17 but still win? Is anything damaged except the arbitrary goal you've set to judge Jones, or your ego?

I don't mean to indict your ego singularly. We all have one and it tends to manifest itself in ways that are surprising.
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Wow. You really do seem to believe that margins and competitiveness say nothing about teams. You're a smart guy but there is nothing logical, factual, or analytical about that. It isn't a matter of "ego"... unless it is yours... to say that better teams will generally play good teams close while poor teams will generally not.

I am not creating numbers out of "thin air". I am looking at relative roster strengths and applying experience. I do not have the time to do a complex matrix as you have done... but what I am claiming DOES seem to mesh with the matrices you have posted here.
 
#110
#110
durrrr said:
There is nothing to gloat about. USU is a better team than us assuming CK16 is a full go. We have the home field advantage, which is huge, but anybody expecting an automatic-W will be in for a surprise. Fact: USU will have the best player on the field at all times. OLB Kyler Fackrell is a freak, even by SEC measure. CK16 is a Heisman contender and this is his chance to make a statement. They are well coached and their defense is formidable. What % of our team will be making their debut in this game, 40? Including all the true freshman, who, while extremely talented, are facing guys 3-4 years older than them who have developed in the same system their entire time. This team is comparable to the 2013 UCF and NIU teams, neither of which we were better than. This is a formidable opponent and by no means an auto-W, no matter how you spin it. I expect to win, but losing this game is no disappointment and certainly no shame.

Edit: some good links to Chuckie Keeton's game film:
Vs. Utah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDNBFvLCll8
Vs. Toledo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLr5wx6plSM
Vs. Air Force:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS1ghemdKe8
Vs. La Tech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbw3WsTvcr4
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I mean yeah, if we were playing last years squad. But in case you didn't notice this team has lost over half it's starters from last year and Keaton has yet to play since tearing his ACL.

I think they are a pretty good squad, but unless we completely overlook them we are going to steal this team's soul.
 
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#111
#111
MockingVol said:
I mean yeah, if we were playing last years squad. But in case you didn't notice this team has lost over half it's starters from last year and Keaton has yet to play since tearing his ACL.

I think they are a pretty good squad, but unless we completely overlook them we are going to steal this team's soul.
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Is soul stealing like butt kicking? Never heard this expression before, is that a southern phrase?
 
#115
#115
Now, this an orange storm. It's coming. It's coming. Lightning flashing, thunder rumbling. There's an orange storm coming.

Gingers%20steal%20souls.jpg
 
#118
#118
sjt18 said:
Wow. You really do seem to believe that margins and competitiveness say nothing about teams. You're a smart guy but there is nothing logical, factual, or analytical about that. It isn't a matter of "ego"... unless it is yours... to say that better teams will generally play good teams close while poor teams will generally not.

I am not creating numbers out of "thin air". I am looking at relative roster strengths and applying experience. I do not have the time to do a complex matrix as you have done... but what I am claiming DOES seem to mesh with the matrices you have posted here.
Click to expand...

You may be right, you may be wrong. I can do nothing but caution you against doing what you are doing, especially if you are deriving how you view a football team from what is essentially an experienced guess.

As I have tried to tell you, I can't find the correlation that you are looking for, not with enough strength to come up with a score differential using this evaluation alone. But I also admit that I haven't done a study on that fact alone that I would say is broad enough to be conclusive.

What I can say for sure is that, without that data, too much can be drawn from exceptions. If UT only wins by 3 is it really a sign of bad things? Is 17 expecting too much with the inexperience on both lines? Who knows, but that one lone data point won't provide the answer. Again, how is your 17 point creation illustrative of anything beyond unfounded feelings, and good for anything beyond drawing conclusions from a terribly small data set?
 
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#119
#119
The funny thing to me about Utah State is that I keep seeing this assertion that Keeton was some sort of legitimate Heisman candidate. I keep up with CFB pretty closely other than Tennessee, and I can't recall ever hearing his name mentioned in the same breath as McCarron, Mariota, Mason, Winston, and the RB from Boston College. Not even in the same breath as Blake Bortles, Jordan Lynch, or Derek Carr for that matter.
 
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#120
#120
NashVOL93 said:
The funny thing to me about Utah State is that I keep seeing this assertion that Keeton was some sort of legitimate Heisman candidate. I keep up with CFB pretty closely other than Tennessee, and I can't recall ever hearing his name mentioned in the same breath as McCarron, Mariota, Mason, Winston, and the RB from Boston College. Not even in the same breath as Blake Bortles, Jordan Lynch, or Derek Carr for that matter.
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That's because it wasn't. Nor will his name be mentioned as a viable candidate this year. He may be a phenomenal QB who single-handedly beats UT..... either way he's got zero chance of sniffing an invitation to the Dowtown Athletic Club.
 
#121
#121
durrrr said:
There is nothing to gloat about. USU is a better team than us assuming CK16 is a full go. We have the home field advantage, which is huge, but anybody expecting an automatic-W will be in for a surprise. Fact: USU will have the best player on the field at all times. OLB Kyler Fackrell is a freak, even by SEC measure. CK16 is a Heisman contender and this is his chance to make a statement. They are well coached and their defense is formidable. What % of our team will be making their debut in this game, 40? Including all the true freshman, who, while extremely talented, are facing guys 3-4 years older than them who have developed in the same system their entire time. This team is comparable to the 2013 UCF and NIU teams, neither of which we were better than. This is a formidable opponent and by no means an auto-W, no matter how you spin it. I expect to win, but losing this game is no disappointment and certainly no shame.

Edit: some good links to Chuckie Keeton's game film:
Vs. Utah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDNBFvLCll8
Vs. Toledo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLr5wx6plSM
Vs. Air Force:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS1ghemdKe8
Vs. La Tech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbw3WsTvcr4
Click to expand...

The have a better QB, not a better team talent wise. We have more talent at every position besides QBn
 
#122
#122
Oskie Volum said:
Totally the same on this WV. It just baffles me when people get excited about winning when the opponent is not 100%. Especially here in recent yrs when we r rebuilding. Beating a team when they aren't 100% doesn't show improvement to hang ur hat on imo. False hope is created.
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If it makes the difference between a win and loss, does it really matter whether they were 100%?

Ill take a win every time over a loss regardless of the reason.
 
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