VolinWayne
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@VolinWayne
A couple of comments
Overall, I have long had the opinion that the social impacts (murder, drugs, suicide) from lockdowns would kill more people under 50 than COVID (or vax) ever would. As detailed below, the numbers bear this out.
Ive long held that financial statement actuarial impacts, premium increase, and stock price would be best indicator of long-term vax issue. These companies are still trading near all-time highs, there has been no widespread actuarial adjustments (you are seeing some very targeted ones as detailed below) and premium increases are pretty much neglible.
Now to the article:
1. The point about payouts being 15 billion higher in 22 vs 19 is missing a couple key pieces of context. One, there was a half trillion increase in face value of policies. More policies = More payouts. Second, you had 250K CoVID deaths in 22 that you didn't have in 19. Those two items explain the increase in payouts.
2. As stated in the article, there is no standard for excess mortality. Both myself and Stirling, the anti vax guy, both calculated something close to 6.5%-7% over 2019 baseline for first 5 months of 2023 (it was nice to get to same figure). A couple things to point out about that. One, about half of that can be explained away due to COVID deaths. Second, this rate has decreased as 2023 has progressed; however, decrease in excess mortality is due to decrease in COVID deaths.
3. Even after taking out the COVID deaths, you still have about a 2.5-3% excess death rate in 23 vs 19 baseline. Taking it further, pretty much, this entire excess death rate is between ages 15-49. You will be looking at roughly 65-75k excess deaths in 23 over 19 baseline. So, what is causing that?
4. Murders and suicides are up. That's a small part of it. Drug overdoses are way up. From 2015-2019, fatal drug overdoses were 50-70K per yeae. In 2021 and 2022, it was 110K per year. This likely explains most of the excess deaths in 23.
5. In states with overdose problems (especially if underwriting a blue collar workforce), life insurance premiums finally nudged up in 2023 for those between 18-45. Still far less than inflation but a 1-2% nudge up nonetheless.
I appreciate your response. I did see in the article where it touches briefly on the increase in suicides and over-doses but it also mentions the increase in cardiac mortalitly. From the article
"Cause of death data show increased cardiac mortality in all ages. And even as COVID-related causes declined in 2022, others rose, particularly stroke, diabetes, kidney and liver diseases."